Batting the Pitcher 8th

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
We saw the Braves experiment with batting the pitcher 8th for a few games. The idea was obviously to get more PAs for Albies/Acuna, and to have Ender on base more often for those guys after the 1st inning.

What seemed to happen was the pitcher came up to bat several times with men on base, and killed potential rallies. We can use BRef's play index to see what actually happens with 8th place hitters, and we will limit the data to 2017-2018 so the data doesn't bog down the searches too much.

First, let's take a look at the average MLB #8 hitter (including pitchers who only represent 1.3% of the sample...batting the pitcher 8th is rare):

PAs: 23265
Any On PAs: 10281 (44.2%)
non-self RBI: 1728
non-self RBI per Any On PA: 0.168

So a typical #8 hitter bats with any runner(s) on base 44% of the time. They cash in these runners at a rate of 0.168 runs per PA.

Now let's take a look at pitchers batting 8th:

PAs: 322
Any On PAs: 145 (45.0%)
non-self RBI: 16
non-self RBI per Any On PA: 0.110

Pitchers batting 8th see runners on base at exactly the same rate as non-pitchers batting 8th (so much for lineup protection). Every time a pitcher batted with runners on rather than the average #8 hitter, it cost the team 0.058 runs. Since the 9th batter will still hit 2/3 of the time (when the pitcher doesn't make the 3rd out), we can divide that by 3. The cost is now 0.019 runs every time the pitcher bats with runners on base rather than the 8th place hitter.

In 2017, NL teams sent a pitcher to the plate on average 328 times, mostly from the 9th hole. If a team batted the pitcher 8th, we can add a handful of PAs (17 per lineup spot, but the pitcher won't hit the entire game), so let's call it 340 PAs. In those 340 PAs, we can assume 45% will be with runners on base, or 153 PAs. Each of those PAs cost the team 0.019 runs, for a total of 2.9 runs for the entire season.

That seems like a very small price to pay for the supposed benefit of Albies/Acuna batting with more runners on base. Determining how many more runners are on in front of those hitters is hard to gauge, but we can see how many more runners were on in front of the lead off guy for the teams who batted the pitcher 8th most often: Cubs (124 PAs) and Mets (60 PAs).

But first, the typical lead off batter hit with runners on base 9165 times in 27763 PAs (33.0%).

The Cubs lead off guy hit with runners on base 314 times in 933 PAs (33.7%).

A typical lead off hitter bat 750 times in a season, and batting the pitcher 8th gets him about 5 more PAs with runners on base.

So giving up 2.9 runs to let Albies bat 5 more times with runners on?

As usual, this lineup up stuff doesn't matter much at all.
 
I'm interested to see what Snitker does with the lineup, specifically where he moves Inciarte. I would certainly hope he doesn't touch the top two guys in the order.

If he just flips Inciarte to the 8 spot, I think that could actually hurt the team because it likely eliminates some of his opportunity to steal bases, which is one of the few offensive things Inciarte is actually better than average at.
 
I’d probably bat Inciarte 6/7 depending on platoon splits and who is playing 3b. He just needs to bat below Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Markakis, and whoever is catching. As long as it isn’t in the top half it doesn’t matter exactly where.

In the end it just doesn’t matter. I was hoping to unearth something, but there’s nothing to discover.

Get good hitters. Make sure your best hitters get the most chances to hit.

It’s really that straightforward.
 
You guys have swung me. I definitely get that you need to get the most at bats for your best hitters and it's easy to see our best 4 hitters. But that should still mean that the pitcher bats 9th. If Inciarte gets his OBP back up .020 or .030 higher than Albies I'd probably still move him back to leadoff. But I hope that never happens since that would mean Albies is slipping.
 
Is dumb.

I remember when LaRussa started doing it and they asked him for an explanation and he opened his mouth and said a lot of words and they didn't go together and I was thinking, "the **** is this moron talking about?" It doesn't make any more sense now.
 
Thanks Enscheff. I've always thought the pitcher batting eighth was simply a quirk that some managers used to convince folks they were smarter than their colleagues. Great work on your part to show there's more style than substance to the move. Like you say, just get good hitters and the problem takes care of itself. One quality I like in a number-eight hitter is the ability to take a walk to at least get to the pitcher so the line-up turns over, but that's playing on the edges.
 
Outstanding data Enscheff

I would have said.......batting the pitcher 8th is stupid.

We can all agree on that.
 
I wouldn't call it stupid, but it's not going to make much of an impact. I just looked at league averages, so it's possible there is a specific combination of players where it makes more of an impact.

It's one of those things where a tiny improvement (if there is one at all) probably isn't worth upsetting the apple cart full of egos.

Things like platoon match ups and using your best BP arm in the 8th vs the heart of the opposing team's order is much more important.
 
Everything I've seen written on it has the pitcher hitting 8th coming out very, very slightly ahead of 9th. As in 1-7 runs over an entire season, which is a small fraction of a run a game.

Not worth worrying about or writing about. The decision to go with it the strategy and then put it away, which nearly all managers have done is as strange as anything else. I guess it comes down to players not particularly liking it and the anecdotal complaints of people that hate seeing something different outweighing the benefit. It's easier to just do the expected thing.
 
OK, after just one good weekend, I'm no longer convinced. I'm ready to move Inciarte back to leadoff. I love the way Inciarte has these long at bats. It brings his value way up if you think of him as a leadoff hitter. Technically he's still probably the 5th or 6th best offensive player on the team, but it's close enough to me. Also allows you to swing the rookie Acuna lower in the order, maybe less pressure on him.

I'd go Inciarte, Albies, FF, Markakis, catcher, then Acuna for now. Move Acuna up later in the year assuming he gets it going.
 
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