BP management

[bravesfanMatt]

I am concerned that Game7 will blowout one of the arms of the big 4 currently settling into roles in our pen. So it got me wondering how can you manage the pen more efficiently and still give yourself great chances to win.

I think having these 4 guys just set in a role is not smart. Game7 could manage off days for one guy rotating. He could utilize Krol and Jackson in more high leverage role without exposing them too. So say a starter is struggling like last night and we need another 4 inning save. and say you wanted to give Jo Ram a night off.

whenever you are at the bottom of the order you would use Jackson. So Motte might have 6th to get 1-2-3 out.. Viz has 7th to get 4-5-6... Jackson has 8th to get 7-8-9.. with JJ closing the 9th.

I know this wouldn't always work out that cleanly.. but I think you can also have guys go more than 1 inning as well. I think 25 pitches over 2 innings is better than 25 pitches over 2 days.

thoughts...

 

[50PoundHead]

I am concerned that Game7 will blowout one of the arms of the big 4 currently settling into roles in our pen. So it got me wondering how can you manage the pen more efficiently and still give yourself great chances to win.

I think having these 4 guys just set in a role is not smart. Game7 could manage off days for one guy rotating. He could utilize Krol and Jackson in more high leverage role without exposing them too. So say a starter is struggling like last night and we need another 4 inning save. and say you wanted to give Jo Ram a night off.

whenever you are at the bottom of the order you would use Jackson. So Motte might have 6th to get 1-2-3 out.. Viz has 7th to get 4-5-6... Jackson has 8th to get 7-8-9.. with JJ closing the 9th.

I know this wouldn't always work out that cleanly.. but I think you can also have guys go more than 1 inning as well. I think 25 pitches over 2 innings is better than 25 pitches over 2 days.

thoughts...

Just one?

I think Snitker has set up a decent bullpen pecking order back-to-front (Johnson, Vizcaino, Ramirez) with Motte being a big and pleasant surprise. But he's got too much dead weight in the pen right now that is going to lead to over-use of those four. You can't throw the same four guys every time you have a lead and expect them to remain fresh. O'Flaherty is a shadow of what he once was and Krol doesn't bring much to the table. Collmenter is a decent "dead inning" guy, but we need two more guys--hopefully one being a LHP--who can be slotted into key situations and keep guys' arms from falling off.

 

[Southcack77]

Just one?

I think Snitker has set up a decent bullpen pecking order back-to-front (Johnson, Vizcaino, Ramirez) with Motte being a big and pleasant surprise. But he's got too much dead weight in the pen right now that is going to lead to over-use of those four. You can't throw the same four guys every time you have a lead and expect them to remain fresh. O'Flaherty is a shadow of what he once was and Krol doesn't bring much to the table. Collmenter is a decent "dead inning" guy, but we need two more guys--hopefully one being a LHP--who can be slotted into key situations and keep guys' arms from falling off.

There is more coming. He's got Cabrera to throw into the mix pretty soon. Ultimately, maybe Wisler or Blair may fill a long relief role.

 

[nsacpi]

The test will come when we have 3 or 4 consecutive games where we are protecting a small lead late in the game. That has not happened much so far. Hopefully it does. It would be a nice problem to have and a good test of Snit's bullpen management.

There is no issue for tonight's game, since two games ago Jaime Garcia gave us 8 innings and Jackson pitched the 9th. I'm guessing if we have a lead of four runs or less and the starter is starting to struggle, he will bring in the guys who have been doing the job lately.

 

[smootness]

I am concerned that Game7 will blowout one of the arms of the big 4 currently settling into roles in our pen. So it got me wondering how can you manage the pen more efficiently and still give yourself great chances to win.

I think having these 4 guys just set in a role is not smart. Game7 could manage off days for one guy rotating. He could utilize Krol and Jackson in more high leverage role without exposing them too. So say a starter is struggling like last night and we need another 4 inning save. and say you wanted to give Jo Ram a night off.

whenever you are at the bottom of the order you would use Jackson. So Motte might have 6th to get 1-2-3 out.. Viz has 7th to get 4-5-6... Jackson has 8th to get 7-8-9.. with JJ closing the 9th.

I know this wouldn't always work out that cleanly.. but I think you can also have guys go more than 1 inning as well. I think 25 pitches over 2 innings is better than 25 pitches over 2 days.

thoughts...

I don't think this is a bad idea, but one of the issues you run into is that it limits your options as you go. So say Motte and Viz get through their innings fine, then you bring in Jackson for the bottom of the order. That is a good use of your guys to maximize their value assuming they pitch well enough. But if Jackson doesn't get through his inning cleanly (which is less likely when you give him the bottom of the order, but still more likely than a guy like Vizcaino), then your only option is to bring JJ in. You've already burned Motte and Vizcaino, so you're left with fewer options.

I don't mind bringing in Jackson for the 1-2-3 in the 6th and having Motte ready if he gets himself into trouble. At least then you have left yourself with outs. But I do get what you're trying to do and think it's an interesting idea.

 

[Southcack77]

I don't think this is a bad idea, but one of the issues you run into is that it limits your options as you go. So say Motte and Viz get through their innings fine, then you bring in Jackson for the bottom of the order. That is a good use of your guys to maximize their value assuming they pitch well enough. But if Jackson doesn't get through his inning cleanly (which is less likely when you give him the bottom of the order, but still more likely than a guy like Vizcaino), then your only option is to bring JJ in. You've already burned Motte and Vizcaino, so you're left with fewer options.

I don't mind bringing in Jackson for the 1-2-3 in the 6th and having Motte ready if he gets himself into trouble. At least then you have left yourself with outs. But I do get what you're trying to do and think it's an interesting idea.

The risk in pitching any reliever is that they won't get the job done and you'll have to burn two right?

What would be helpful would be the starters getting deeper into games so that you don't need to pitch four relievers on a given night.

some of the decisions are pretty standard baseball -- if you are behind you might get the B guy, if you are holding the lead you get A.

 

[smootness]

It would have been really nice if Minter could have gotten through ST and the start of the year healthy. He's in a weird spot where once he's ready to come back, you want to get as much use out of him while you can, but you also need to ease him back in and try to get him ready without pushing too hard.

He's a guy we need to have in the majors as soon as he can possibly get there because we need to get as much value as we can before his arm craps out. But it's not an easy road just to get him to that point.

 

[smootness]

The risk in pitching any reliever is that they won't get the job done and you'll have to burn two right?

What would be helpful would be the starters getting deeper into games so that you don't need to pitch four relievers on a given night.

some of the decisions are pretty standard baseball -- if you are behind you might get the B guy, if you are holding the lead you get A.

Yeah, but my point is that when you use your better guys first, you burn them and limit your options. If you can use Luke Jackson to get you through an inning, that's very good for you. But in the event he can't, you need to have other options. If you use your better guys on the front end and already have it mapped out to use Jackson later, there is less you can do if he struggles.

 

[nsacpi]

I'd like to use this thread to discuss what Snit does with the pen each game on an ongoing basis.

Going into tonight's game, the pen is in relatively good shape. Garcia went 8 on Sunday, with Jackson pitching the 9th.

Last night, Motte, Ramirez, Viz and JJ each pitched an inning. Pitch count totals were reasonable: 19, 10, 17 and 16, respectively.

So I think everyone is available tonight. With a lead of 4 or less, I think we'll see the same four depending on which inning it is. Motte probably exerted more effort than the others last night. So maybe there is a case for being careful with him tonight.

Bigger lead or if we are tied or behind we will see one of the four other guys.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I agree Smoot.. but you can't manage based on failure. if Jackson fails then JJ has the ability to go 2 innings. Then you have him out the next game and you look at re-org'in your pen for JJ being out. Like others have said, we can't bring these guys in for every slim lead. right now Viz has 20 Games, Jo Ram 20 and JJ is at 19. that is about 47% of the games played thus far. that is doable.. but if the Braves continue with the starters going 5 or less innings, then we could see that % go up.

Snit just seems like a guy very routine based. He will just do what has been working. I would like to see more planning to prevent possible arm fatigue down the stretch or up to the trade deadline.

that being said, we could wear the crap out of a few guys and then trade them to the gNats...profit.

 

[50PoundHead]

The risk in pitching any reliever is that they won't get the job done and you'll have to burn two right?

What would be helpful would be the starters getting deeper into games so that you don't need to pitch four relievers on a given night.

some of the decisions are pretty standard baseball -- if you are behind you might get the B guy, if you are holding the lead you get A.

Big key that I totally forgot to put in my post. We need starters to get past the sixth more consistently. Then you can have Motte and Ramirez swap the 7th. Ramirez set up when Vizcaino needs a rest and Vizcaino to close when Johnson needs a rest. Would be nice to have a reliable LOOGY (Brothers?). Jackson and a healthy Cabrera could help as well.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I'd like to use this thread to discuss what Snit does with the pen each game on an ongoing basis.

Going into tonight's game, the pen is in relatively good shape. Garcia went 8 on Sunday, with Jackson pitching the 9th.

Last night, Motte, Ramirez, Viz and JJ each pitched an inning. Pitch count totals were reasonable: 19, 10, 17 and 16, respectively.

So I think everyone is available tonight. With a lead of 4 or less, I think we'll see the same four depending on which inning it is. Motte probably exerted more effort than the others last night. So maybe there is a case for being careful with him tonight.

Bigger lead or if we are tied or behind we will see one of the four other guys.

I wouldn't mind seeing Jackson pushed a little. He has good stuff but is a baby face youngin.. Krol can be effective and should be used wisely. I would be ok even using Krol/Freeman to get through one inning.

Jo Ram has been amazing lately.

5/16 1.2 Ip (win) 1 K 29 pitches
5/19 1 ip (hold) 0 K 12 pitches
5/20 1 ip (hold) 1 K 12 pitches
5/22 1 ip (hold) 0 K 10 pitches

not hits nor walks either.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think Mo Cabrera needs to stay down longer. I think he needs to work on honing his pitches against lesser opponents. He should be K'ing guys at 9 to 10/9innings.. not 6 to 7.

 

[smootness]

I agree Smoot.. but you can't manage based on failure. if Jackson fails then JJ has the ability to go 2 innings. Then you have him out the next game and you look at re-org'in your pen for JJ being out. Like others have said, we can't bring these guys in for every slim lead. right now Viz has 20 Games, Jo Ram 20 and JJ is at 19. that is about 47% of the games played thus far. that is doable.. but if the Braves continue with the starters going 5 or less innings, then we could see that % go up.

Snit just seems like a guy very routine based. He will just do what has been working. I would like to see more planning to prevent possible arm fatigue down the stretch or up to the trade deadline.

that being said, we could wear the crap out of a few guys and then trade them to the gNats...profit.

I agree that I would like to see smarter planning. But to some degree, when you're using your better relievers earlier in some games, you're actually increasing their usage. If you use them in the 6th/7th, you're guaranteeing they see innings. If you use your lesser guys earlier, you're potentially resting them if those guys can get through it and if your offense gets you more runs in the process.

There's no easy answer, and I agree with your overall point.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I agree that I would like to see smarter planning. But to some degree, when you're using your better relievers earlier in some games, you're actually increasing their usage. If you use them in the 6th/7th, you're guaranteeing they see innings. If you use your lesser guys earlier, you're potentially resting them if those guys can get through it and if your offense gets you more runs in the process.

There's no easy answer, and I agree with your overall point.

interesting insight with the offense producing enough to get key guys innings off. JJ had the potential to have the night off last night if one run scored in 8th and he has one less appearance than the other two. Motte is newbie so he doesn't count.

 

[Enscheff]

Matt pretty much outlined the ioptimal way to utilize a BP, but unfortunately, the Braves are still in the dark ages with BP management. The "closer" will pitch the 9th no matter what part of the lineup is coming to bat. Fortunately, Snit has Viz and JJ, both generally capable of pitching high leverage innings, and since they will primarily be used in the 8th and 9th one of them is almost guaranteed to face the heart of the opposing lineup at the end of the game.

As long as he doesn't use anyone 3 days in a row, and gives them a day off after using them 2 days in a row (without fail), they should be fine health-wise (as healthy as any BP arm can be at least). This team will be behind enough that they won't be faced with too many high leverage innings to manage.

 

[Southcack77]

Matt pretty much outlined the ioptimal way to utilize a BP, but unfortunately, the Braves are still in the dark ages with BP management. The "closer" will pitch the 9th no matter what part of the lineup is coming to bat. Fortunately, Snit has Viz and JJ, both generally capable of pitching high leverage innings, and since they will primarily be used in the 8th and 9th one of them is almost guaranteed to face the heart of the opposing lineup at the end of the game.

As long as he doesn't use anyone 3 days in a row, and gives them a day off after using them 2 days in a row (without fail), they should be fine health-wise (as healthy as any BP arm can be at least). This team will be behind enough that they won't be faced with too many high leverage innings to manage.

If there is not a lot of differentiation between your closer and set up man then letting them have their roles may well the play. While people cry about it and there is some argument for it, there aren't many teams (perhaps none consistently) that are matchup driven when it comes to the back of their pen.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Matt pretty much outlined the ioptimal way to utilize a BP, but unfortunately, the Braves are still in the dark ages with BP management. The "closer" will pitch the 9th no matter what part of the lineup is coming to bat. Fortunately, Snit has Viz and JJ, both generally capable of pitching high leverage innings, and since they will primarily be used in the 8th and 9th one of them is almost guaranteed to face the heart of the opposing lineup at the end of the game.

As long as he doesn't use anyone 3 days in a row, and gives them a day off after using them 2 days in a row (without fail), they should be fine health-wise (as healthy as any BP arm can be at least). This team will be behind enough that they won't be faced with too many high leverage innings to manage.

look if you say nice things about me, then it will only encourage more of me stalking you..

 

[bravesfanMatt]

If there is not a lot of differentiation between your closer and set up man then letting them have their roles may well the play. While people cry about it and there is some argument for it, there aren't many teams (perhaps none consistently) that are matchup driven when it comes to the back of their pen.

I can't think of any team that doesn't use a closer to actually close the game. there maybe some since I don't focus on the league as a whole too much.

 

[smootness]

Matt pretty much outlined the ioptimal way to utilize a BP, but unfortunately, the Braves are still in the dark ages with BP management. The "closer" will pitch the 9th no matter what part of the lineup is coming to bat. Fortunately, Snit has Viz and JJ, both generally capable of pitching high leverage innings, and since they will primarily be used in the 8th and 9th one of them is almost guaranteed to face the heart of the opposing lineup at the end of the game.

As long as he doesn't use anyone 3 days in a row, and gives them a day off after using them 2 days in a row (without fail), they should be fine health-wise (as healthy as any BP arm can be at least). This team will be behind enough that they won't be faced with too many high leverage innings to manage.

Most teams are in the dark ages in BP management. Maddon has been more in the dark ages this year than anybody.

I definitely want to see teams throughout baseball, and obviously the Braves first and foremost, use their bullpen more optimally. But we also don't really have the kind of elite BP arms that allow for the kind of real optimization I would like. And the one advantage you have when waiting to use your best arm(s) is that you have them ready whenever they need to come in. So if you use your best guy in the 8th, you have the decision to make to either pull him for the 9th or keep him out there. And if you pull him, you no longer have him as an option if the lesser guy finds himself in trouble in the 9th.

If the lesser guy finds himself in trouble in the 8th, you can bring in your best arm to get you out of that and then finish it off in the 9th.