BP Mid-Season Top 50

I don't get the hype for Devers at all.

What's not to get? He has pretty good strike zone judgement, good contact skills, all-field game power as a teenager, and he's going to get stronger. His defense improved considerably over the course of the season last year, so unless he gets fat he's gonna stick there.
 
No, definitely not. Just making the correction. And the fact that they're putting up similar numbers but most of us are not extremely excited about Davidson is either good news for Davidson or bad news for Devers.

I think we tend to underrate Davidson a bit. I've seen him as more of a KJ guy than an impact bat, but KJ has had a pretty solid career.
 
I think the rating of Crawford as 1 shows that prospect status is kinda down right now. There aren't a glut of high upside guys currently (due in part bc a lot of young guys have been promoted) I'm fine with Crawford as 1; he's a great athlete that does everything well. At SS, that is extremely valuable.

Devers is fine where he's at, imo. While he's young, he appears to have matured before other guys his age and has the body of someone much older. He's not a 19 year old with a developing body. The challenge for him is going to be traslating his strength and raw power into game power as his swing path is more like a contact hitter. Certainly has a high ceiling and appears to be a decent defender unless he gets fat.
 
4 months younger than Davidson, and his performance at the same level isn't that much better.

There are some notable differences with Davidson though (including slightly older). Davidson is playing the corner outfield as opposed to 3B. Davidson is striking out 32% of his PAs. Davidson has a high BABIP of .338. I think Andy Marte showed up how we really need to consider strikeout rates as a predictor as guys move through the minors.
 
I don't see a trade with the Sox happening. So I'm paying attention to how Bregman made a big leap, and that Brinson is still considered rather high after a disappointing season.

My preferred trade is still with Houston with some combination of Bregman/Fisher/Musgrove/Paulino depending on who we send and if we include money
 
I think we tend to underrate Davidson a bit. I've seen him as more of a KJ guy than an impact bat, but KJ has had a pretty solid career.

The difference is KJ didn't srike struck out at the rate Davidson does. KJ was more in the 20% to 25% range.
 
Since I'm feeling generous today I will share my top secret expected surplus value chart of prospect value by ranking:

1-3 10 wins

4-8 9 wins

9-14 8 wins

15-25 7 wins

26-50 6 wins

During his remaining years of contractual control, my estimate of Teheran's surplus value is 10 wins. I want to win any trade for Teheran. To be precise, I want a return worth 13 wins. Not a crazy overpay like Shelby Miller. But I am looking to win. By my value chart, Benintendi plus Devers is 15 wins. I would definitely go for that. But realistically, we would have to add a bit back to make that one happen.

Sounds kinda like what I felt when trying to draw a comparison to the Hamels deal. Would be interesting to see how Julio and Vizcaino for Benintendi, Devers, and Kopech and a wildcard like Henry Ramos would shake out on that scale.
 
I think I'm the biggest Devers fan on this board. He started out really slow, but he has hit really well over the last month or two. He's also 19 years old for a few more months. We talk about pushing Braxton Davidson by putting him at High A, but Devers is nine months younger than him. Every prospect writer I've read is putting a plus hit tool and plus power on him, and they haven't backed off at all with his struggles.

Keith Law praised him today saying he was not overmatched even when he was struggling this year.

I think he would be a good piece of a return from Boston on his own merit.
 
Boston and Houston would be the 2 teams if hope we made a trade with. Bregman has been my favorite for a while now.
 
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