BP's 2017 PECOTA projections

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=ATL

They currently project the Braves to win 76 games. Several of their individual projections seem low though:

Freeman .282/.374/.481, 24 HRs, 3.5 WAR:

This projected slash line is almost exactly his career line of .288/.373/.484. I find it almost impossible to believe a fully healthy Freeman at the age of 27 won't produce a line better than his career averages. I would project him to regress a little from last year, and put up something along the lines of .300/.390/.500, which should inflate his WAR to 4+. I would also be surprised if he hits under 30 HRs in a smaller home park.

Teheran 174 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.8 WAR:

In his 4 full seasons at the MLB level, Teheran's lowest IP total is 185. He is going into his age 26 season, so I see no reason to project his IP total to decline from the 190-200 range. He has consistently out-pitched his FIP by about 0.5 runs over the course of 4 full seasons, spanning 800+ IP, so I think it is safe to say he is one of the pitchers that do it regularly. I see no reason to project a regression of his ERA towards his FIP, and would project it to fall into his normal 3.0-3.5 range. Outside of a knee injury that scuttled half his season in 2015, I see no reason not to expect 3-4 WAR from Teheran in 2017.

Adonis 609 PAs, .265/.299/.408, 0.5 WAR:

If Adonis gets 600+ PAs in 2017, something went terribly wrong with Albies. At some point in 2017, Albies will be playing 2B, and SRod will get the bulk of the PAs at 3B. SRod is projected to produce 0.8 WAR in ~350 PAs, but I would project him to accumulate close to 500 PAs. Add in the improved production from Albies, and I would project the combo of 2B/3B to produce an additional ~1 WAR above what is currently projected.

The rest of the roster looks reasonable, so starting with 76 wins and adding 1 more win for Freeman, 2-3 more wins from Teheran, and 1 more win for the Albies/SRod combo, I would say a better projection for the Braves is 80.5 wins, which is where I would place the over/under if I were taking bets.
 
Enscheff said:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=ATL

They currently project the Braves to win 76 games. Several of their individual projections seem low though:

Freeman .282/.374/.481, 24 HRs, 3.5 WAR:

This projected slash line is almost exactly his career line of .288/.373/.484. I find it almost impossible to believe a fully healthy Freeman at the age of 27 won't produce a line better than his career averages. I would project him to regress a little from last year, and put up something along the lines of .300/.390/.500, which should inflate his WAR to 4+. I would also be surprised if he hits under 30 HRs in a smaller home park.

Teheran 174 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.8 WAR:

In his 4 full seasons at the MLB level, Teheran's lowest IP total is 185. He is going into his age 26 season, so I see no reason to project his IP total to decline from the 190-200 range. He has consistently out-pitched his FIP by about 0.5 runs over the course of 4 full seasons, spanning 800+ IP, so I think it is safe to say he is one of the pitchers that do it regularly. I see no reason to project a regression of his ERA towards his FIP, and would project it to fall into his normal 3.0-3.5 range. Outside of a knee injury that scuttled half his season in 2015, I see no reason not to expect 3-4 WAR from Teheran in 2017.

Adonis 609 PAs, .265/.299/.408, 0.5 WAR:

If Adonis gets 600+ PAs in 2017, something went terribly wrong with Albies. At some point in 2017, Albies will be playing 2B, and SRod will get the bulk of the PAs at 3B. SRod is projected to produce 0.8 WAR in ~350 PAs, but I would project him to accumulate close to 500 PAs. Add in the improved production from Albies, and I would project the combo of 2B/3B to produce an additional ~1 WAR above what is currently projected.

The rest of the roster looks reasonable, so starting with 76 wins and adding 1 more win for Freeman, 2-3 more wins from Teheran, and 1 more win for the Albies/SRod combo, I would say a better projection for the Braves is 80.5 wins, which is where I would place the over/under if I were taking bets.
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If 80.5 is the baseline then 85 is not unrealistic in the likely scenarios which is where I think they will end up.

What are their thoughts on Inciarte and Swanson?
 
thethe said:
If 80.5 is the baseline then 85 is not unrealistic in the likely scenarios which is where I think they will end up.

What are their thoughts on Inciarte and Swanson?
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If the over/under is 80.5, then 85 wins is equally as likely as 76 wins. I don't think claiming the Braves will win 76-85 games is a very useful statement.

Swanson: .253/.324/.406, 3.4 WAR
Inciarte: .280/.328/.378, 3.8 WAR

Reasonable enough. I expect a little more OBP out of Swanson, but not enough to move the needle as far as projected win totals go.
 
striker42 said:
Those Freeman and Teheran numbers are kind of goofy.
Click to expand...

One of PECOTA's biggest flaws is dealing with guys that consistently outperform their FIPs (or whatever "true talent" measure it uses). It is also bad at recognizing breakouts by players in their prime, as is the case with Freeman.
 
Enscheff said:
If the over/under is 80.5, then 85 wins is equally as likely as 76 wins. I don't think claiming the Braves will win 76-85 games is a very useful statement.

Swanson: .253/.324/.406, 3.4 WAR

Inciarte: .280/.328/.378, 3.8 WAR

Reasonable enough. I expect a little more OBP out of Swanson, but not enough to move the needle as far as projected win totals go.
Click to expand...

All I'm saying is that it shouldn't be considered an absurd prediction then based off of what you have posted. Likely? No. But certainly well within a reasonable chance.
 
I don't understand the logic in giving Teheran those numbers. The ERA is fine, you can take regression, but he ALWAYS produces more innings.
 
Enscheff said:
If the over/under is 80.5, then 85 wins is equally as likely as 76 wins. I don't think claiming the Braves will win 76-85 games is a very useful statement.

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Swanson: .253/.324/.406, 3.4 WAR

Inciarte: .280/.328/.378, 3.8 WAR

Reasonable enough. I expect a little more OBP out of Swanson, but not enough to move the needle as far as projected win totals go.
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The numbers on Inciarte seem pretty pessimistic given his last two seasons as a baseline and the fact he's entering his prime. I mean that's nearly 20 points in OPS below his career average and a good 30 points below the level of his last 2 seasons.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I don't understand the logic in giving Teheran those numbers. The ERA is fine, you can take regression, but he ALWAYS produces more innings.
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And thats why you need true scouts who know the game to help predict/analyze. It should be a mix of everything.
 
thethe said:
And thats why you need true scouts who know the game to help predict/analyze. It should be a mix of everything.
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Did the Dbacks have true scouts when they thought adding Miller and Greinke was going to make them NL West contenders?
 
thewupk said:
Did the Dbacks have true scouts when they thought adding Miller and Greinke was going to make them NL West contenders?
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That is very myopic statement. Adding Miller and Zack should have helped them. But both Miller and Zack were below career norms and the Dbags had some crucial injuries and under performance from other offensive players. To say everyone knew the dbags were going to be bad is completely false. I am not pardoning them for that trade. But that team should have contended for a wild card at least.
 
I think our baseline is in the 75-80 range. Our chance to make the playoffs 5%, maybe a little more. But as some posters are fond of noting the game is played on the field. Let's see what happens.
 
You don't think it's possible that Albies is kept down to the trade deadline or even roster expansion? He's still very young.

It's possible that with the right platooning Jace/Rod/Adonis give us ok numbers out of 2B and 3B.

we also have a million BP arms so every position player is going to hit every game.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I don't understand the logic in giving Teheran those numbers. The ERA is fine, you can take regression, but he ALWAYS produces more innings.
Click to expand...

A generic pitcher, even a durable one, has a certain probability of missing some time. Look at Kershaw last year for example. A machine before that and then the back injury. The projections have to take this probability into account.
 
thethe said:
MIX OF EVERYTHING!
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I agree. And this is one view that takes many variables into consideration. Expecting everyone to repeat of get better next year is unrealistic. Some players will underperform. Even those with track records.
 
Russ2dollas said:
You don't think it's possible that Albies is kept down to the trade deadline or even roster expansion? He's still very young.

It's possible that with the right platooning Jace/Rod/Adonis give us ok numbers out of 2B and 3B.

we also have a million BP arms so every position player is going to hit every game.
Click to expand...

I think anything's possible with Albies at this point. He could win the second base job in spring training or he might not make it to the majors this year. Personally I think he gets a long look this spring and then gets sent down for a couple months at AAA. If he hits there then he'll be back up come June.
 
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