GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'd make that deal, but you'd need to restructure it a bit. The Rays have Kiermaier, so Inciarte isn't terribly useful for them. Maybe Newcomb and Riley/Demeritte.
Braves acquire garcia
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
I'd make that deal, but you'd need to restructure it a bit. The Rays have Kiermaier, so Inciarte isn't terribly useful for them. Maybe Newcomb and Riley/Demeritte.
This type of attitude is comical. I'm willing to bet you don't know how to mathematically regress or normalize a data set, yet you talk about it like "all they do is regress it". Never mind the fact that they had to derive WAR values in the first place. They had to prove BABIP was a predictive stat. Can you do that? Do you even know what that type of proof entails? Can you calculate an r-squared value?
Fact of the matter is the data analysis revolution in baseball is what allowed small budget teams to compete 10 years ago. Large market teams have adopted the same techniques and now they are benefiting.
The only folks in the dark ages are people like you desperate to hold onto the little bit of "knowledge" you're able to wrap your tiny brain around.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Medical conditions aren't injuries. Bit of a hard head? Cite your source; I've never heard that. This was a brutally bad post.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
I am also a dinosaur relating to so many of these new evaluation formulas. But while I will run afoul of them at times, I realize their value and people like you who are comfortable reading and projecting them. But for all the projections, I feel that these veteran pitchers can be flipped as early as spring training, but that the Braves want to flip them for young position players, like Crawford.
Southcack77
Well-known member
He's 30 years old. In 2015 he pitched 130 IP at less than 2.5 ERA. If he put up his FIP from that year, he's a lefty veteran on a half season deal having a good season. He can get a return better to John Gant easily.. All John Gant cost was Kelly.
If he bombs out, you gave up Chris Ellis and John Gant and a guy in A who has no power, doesn't walk, and plays a weak 2B. who cares?
After trading Gant, Whalen, Ellis, Povse -- the braves still have Blair, Wisler, Jenkins, Weigel, Sims and a cast other characters with equal or better expectations at the AAA level probably.
Honestly, they needed to clear room of mediocre fifth starter/swing men if nothing else.
I don't really understand what you think the Braves should be doing. you complain every time they make a signing that you perceive the average fan will view as a win now move, despite the fact that they've given up nothing of value, have not tied themselves into any long term commitments and in fact the acquisitions on balance do make it more likely they will win.
Compare that to your love for three years of Jason Castro at a premium. That's what I call making a dumb move trying to go for something and instead hampering yourself with an overpaid backup catcher who kind of sucks.
All this is fine. They are taking some shots at putting a decent team on the field for fans, at relatively low cost, while also putting themselves into some spots to acquire more young talent that might help during future windows. None of these deals are supposed to be strokes of genius. They are just moving around assets trying to be respectable while assembling a winning team for the future.
And it ain't going to be Whalen, Gant, Ellis that turned them around.
Yes, they might win fewer than 80 games next year. So what?
Funny you mention that because Steamer's projections have his HR/9 dropping to his career avg of 0.79 and being worth 2.4 WAR. Seems like most people **** on projections when it doesn't agree with their opinion.
You make projections on probabilities as well. While on the whole one or two may bust out right out of the gate that way overshoots what is projected of them you have to look at it on an individual basis. And looking at each player individual player I feel the projections are fairly accurate and reasonable. And again it's a projection not a future accounting of what will happen.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Sorry mama, didn't mean to go after one of your babies. I'm not going to argue about it.
Fact remains, he hasn't ever put up a season like Sale or Archer and is not a proven commodity. If the Braves think Archer is a better option than Folty over the same number of years, I certainly wouldn't be able to cite anything to say differently. Neither could you. Because Folty is a projection at this point. The other two have produced.
that's just the way it is. He could turn out to be a Cy Young, but he could also bust. The other two you pretty much need an injury to imagine them not being effective.
Not sure if I argued about it or not. Can't remember what I wasn't going to argue. Cheers.
Maybe I remember now -- not arguing about injuries/health issues. Not arguing about hardheadedness -- this was just a sense of things heard from the broadcast team, kid getting sent down, and maybe not seeing eye to eye with pitching coach in Atlanta and possibly Houston. Nothing terrible specific. Sorry.
Wasn't intending to diss Folty, just saying the Braves would be totally reasonable to prefer one of the other two who have proven it.
This seems like an argument. Dammit.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
No I'm sorry... it was pretty evident to everyone that you were getting a bit excited when big talking heads started to report the real momentum. You won't ever admit your wrongness. But for a while you thought there may be a chance. If you didn't you would just keep telling us to stop posting because it's pointless to speculate packages. You've got serious insecurity problems man. Oh and by the way... NO ONE was saying Sale or Archer was coming for sure. We just discussed package exactly like you Einstein. Oh and Garcia is a damn good pitcher and Olney says we still may deal for an ace. Go back to the gym and get the crap beat out of you.
It amazes me how much people here overvalue some of our prospects. Gant and Ellis won't be missed. They're decent pieces with no future here that are easily replaceable by other arms in our system. We got a proven good SP with health concerns for just depth pieces. The worst case is he gets hurt and contributes nothing then we clear his salary after this year. If he stays healthy we have a solid proven contributor this year that can get us a better prospect mid season if we're not contending for a wild card spot. This is an easy trade to make
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I stay where we are for a bit. No need to jump the gun. That being said, If we really are just going to attempt to jump into contention, sign Ramos, trade for Sale/Quintana and find a way to add pieces to get Frazier. I love Archer, but I feel like Sale is that much better.
Why do you act like this is a difficult calculation to understand? Correlation coefficients are not high level statistics. I bet teams are using much more sophisticated analytical methods.
Chipper
Spring Training Invitee
I love this trade. We get a potential great pitcher with only a year committed, along with Colon and Dickey. With the way the offense was producing at the end of the year, we can potentially compete for at least a wild card next season while not losing any of our best prospects. If we're in the hunt next summer, we still have the resources to trade for a missing piece then.
Face it, the FA market is weak now but will be better next winter. We haven't committed any big money to multi year contracts so we still have plenty to spend next offseason. There's no point in emptying the farm for a Sale if we're not absolutely sure we're ready to compete for a playoff spot. We could be there next year, but most likely we're not.
Face it, the FA market is weak now but will be better next winter. We haven't committed any big money to multi year contracts so we still have plenty to spend next offseason. There's no point in emptying the farm for a Sale if we're not absolutely sure we're ready to compete for a playoff spot. We could be there next year, but most likely we're not.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Yes, yes, and more yes. I completely am with you, man. I loved the deal. AND none of these guys were going to be parts of a larger deal moving forward.
Maybe they are. Due to trades, call ups, and players inexplicably having great or horrible years it's impossible fully project what a team will do in a given year. What we can do is make projections based on what a team currently has and how those players are expected to perform based on history and looking at other similar players at that point in their career. With that being said Steamer did project the Braves to win 68 games in 2016. So I'm really not sure why so many people have issues with it saying the Braves are projected to win 76 games or so with the talent they currently have.
I would say the major differences between what they are projecting and some peoples expectations are the contributions of Kemp and Swanson. Steamer has them combining for 1 WAR where I'm sure those on the positive side see them combining for 4-5.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A lot of things are difficult to predict and carry a lot of uncertainty. Interestingly enough, in many such cases efforts to reduce that uncertainty through careful analysis yield great returns. Even though in many cases a lot of uncertainty (in the form of big forecasting errors) remains after the careful analysis. There is a tendency on the part of some who do not grasp what is going on to point to the remaining forecasting errors and say that the analysis is no good. I see that here and in other places all the time.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
This is starting to remind me a bit of the off-season where Wren made a few redundant moves on starting pitching by signing Lowe and Kawakami and then trading for Vazquez. These moves aren't of that magnitude, but I'm still wondering on the cost/benefit of signing both Dickey and Colon. Maybe they are trying to make Teheran's fastball look faster by surrounding him with a troop of soft-tossers. If Foltynewicz follows Dickey in the rotation, his fastball will look like it's coming in at 120.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Would this be a way to get Garcia aboard and get him to sign an extension? I realize this is a long shot, but with natural regression to his hr rate you have a decent lhp option.... would that be a way to get some lhp in the rotation going forward? Buying low as it were...
A couple of years ago Fangraphs had an article on the Dickey Effect and found that starters and relievers that directly followed Dickey did see a boost in performance. So the idea that a knuckleballer can put you into a little funk seems to hold true. I do think Folty pitching behind Dickey would be the optimal move here.
Agreed. With a large enough sample the models are incredibly accurate as a whole. But variation will exist within a smaller sample size and that's what infuriates so many of us. It's very possible the models are off on individual players on the braves (plus and minus) as well as the team in totality just because the sample isn't large enouhh. So when someone claims the models say the braves are a 75 win team and therefore have no shot it's not correct. You should state them at you have a certain confidence percentage in that but to act like it's a certainty shows you don't really understand how statistical analysis works.