Braves Acquire Matt Adams From Cardinals

[Enscheff]

He'll let you know haha

It's funny he thinks I'm using Aug 1st as some kind of accurate report date. I just said Aug 1st bc of thewupk's famous "wait till July" kinda like GoT's winter is coming

It's odd you guys never pin yourselves to a prediction. It's always wait and see or you hope or more deflection.

So what is it? Is Adams still the same high-,700s OPS guy he always was, or has he truly

Improved? If he has improved, by how much?

 

[msstate7]

It's odd you guys never pin yourselves to a prediction. It's always wait and see or you hope or more deflection.

So what is it? Is Adams still the same high-,700s OPS guy he always was, or has he truly

Improved? If he has improved, by how much?

I think Adams finishes .820 or higher

 

[DirkPiggler]

Are we supposed to be upset at an 838 OPS? No. But isn't the whole idea of pushing Freeman to third to make room for Adams is so we now have this beast 900+ OPS hitter?

I thought the idea was to avoid having a sub-.700 OPS hitter at 3B who doesn't have enough defense to offset a weak bat.

 

[jpx7]

It's odd you guys never pin yourselves to a prediction. It's always wait and see or you hope or more deflection.

So what is it? Is Adams still the same high-,700s OPS guy he always was, or has he truly

Improved? If he has improved, by how much?

I think it's possible he's legitimately improved, but not by as much as it appears currently. I'll go out on a limb and say that, unless he injures a limb, he'll still have a .820-.850 OPS on the 1st of August, and moreover maintain production in that range throughout 2017. If I am wrong and his OPS finishes less than that, I will say "derp" three times, slap my knee, spin around, and spit on the ground.

 

[Enscheff]

I think Adams finishes .820 or higher

So in other words, his OPS will be within the "noise" range of his career OPS.

You don't even disagree with my point...Adams hasn't improved in any real way.

 

[Enscheff]

I think it's possible he's legitimately improved, but not by as much as it appears currently. I'll go out on a limb and say that, unless he injures a limb, he'll still have a .820-.850 OPS on the 1st of August, and moreover maintain production in that range throughout 2017. If I am wrong and his OPS finishes less than that, I will say "derp" three times, slap my knee, spin around, and spit on the ground.

So again, another person that doesn't disagree with me.

Yet folks continue to argue with me when I state his HR rate is about 2x too high.

 

[msstate7]

So in other words, his OPS will be within the "noise" range of his career OPS.

You don't even disagree with my point...Adams hasn't improved in any real way.

Make it .850 then. I wanna disagree with you

 

[jpx7]

So again, another person that doesn't disagree with me.

Yet folks continue to argue with me when I state his HR rate is about 2x too high.

Yea, but I'm pretty bearish in general—that's why they put me in the "nega" camp, even though I'm mostly here for the puns, memes, and unabated ragging on Chip & Joe.

 

[Southcack77]

So again, another person that doesn't disagree with me.

Yet folks continue to argue with me when I state his HR rate is about 2x too high.

I would complain if you said that, because you would be suggesting his home run rate should be 11%. I think that's not supported by his history.

 

[Enscheff]

I would complain if you said that, because you would be suggesting his home run rate should be 11%. I think that's not supported by his history.

Now I know you know I have always talked exclusively about his time with the Braves, during which he has had a sky-high HR rate.

The topic is how much better Adams is. He has only gotten better since joining the Braves.

Stop acting like there is any ambiguity with what I've been saying.

Either make a solid projection, or stop arguing just to be contrarian like a little twat sitting in class critiquing the professor's spelling on the blackboard.

 

[thewupk]

I thought the idea was to avoid having a sub-.700 OPS hitter at 3B who doesn't have enough defense to offset a weak bat.

So in a lost season you want to move Freddie to 3B to make room for a league avg offensive 1B? That makes a lot of sense. If Adams isn't a plus bat it really serves no purpose.

 

[praeceps93]

I'll make my prediction that, for the season as a whole, he runs about ~19% HR/FB, somewhere in the 125-130 wRC+ range, with something like an .850-.860 OPS. I say this because when I look at his batted ball profile while with Atlanta, the best comparison over an extended period of time that I can find in recent years is 2015-2017 David Ortiz. The sustainable HR/FB level will really determine his value as a player moving forward. Comparing Braves version of Adams (from a few days ago, this is from another forum post) to Ortiz from 2015-2017 (in that order):

Pull % : 47 to 46.2

Medium contact % : 42 to 44

Hard contact % : 43 to 43.9%

Z-Swing % : 70.2 to 70.9

Z-Contact % : 85.6 to 87.9

Differences in overall contact , SwStr %, and O-Swing/contact % depress Adams overall offensive value compared to Big Papi, but I see enough similarity in their profile to compare them. Ortiz ran a 19.4 HR/FB over the period I’m referencing, so I’ll probably use that as my actual projection for Adams moving forward and accounting for regression.

So, for me, the numbers say he wants to take advantage of his new home ballpark and made a conscious approach change, which has him selling out for power and aiming for the short porch. Now, the real question is how much that HR/FB actually regresses. If it drops back to his career mark of ~14%, he goes back to being essentially who he was. If it’s closer to the ~22% he sustained in 2013 (and considering our park and his hard hit %, I’m inclined towards that side), he becomes a very good lineup option as you can expect production around what he’s doing this year as a whole, around a 125-130ish wRC+. With his defense that’s a 2-3 WAR player, so apply whatever value you draw in that kind of player and that’s probably what side of the "should we trade" topic you’ll fall on.

 

[DaneHill]

Enscheff, are these the changes that Matt didn't make in the offseason, early season?

http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article/217827284/cards-matt-adams-undergoes-transformation/

Personally, I think he's stepped up his game this year and the Cards just didn't give him a chance to prove it. Change of scenery argument and all that too perhaps. And it's not like his home runs at SunTrust have been cheap shots. They've mostly been blasted 400+ feet, well over the average for walls in MLB ballparks:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2017_2769&type=hitter

Ballpark dimensions a few years ago:

http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/baseballs-many-physical-dimensions_53344ca673751.png

Enscheff, while you would likely be right about most players, I wouldn't hang my hat on Adams as an ordinary example. That's also not to say that I think he's suddenly tripled his trade value. Not enough time to prove if this is the new real Adams or just a lucky hot streak, and he's too limited (1B or DH) as a player to go too crazy about potential trades. But when I see him slap the ball to the opposite field to drive in runs like he did last night, I'm liking what I'm seeing so far with him in a Braves uni.

 

[Southcack77]

Now I know you know I have always talked exclusively about his time with the Braves, during which he has had a sky-high HR rate.

The topic is how much better Adams is. He has only gotten better since joining the Braves.

Stop acting like there is any ambiguity with what I've been saying.

Either make a solid projection, or stop arguing just to be contrarian like a little twat sitting in class critiquing the professor's spelling on the blackboard.

Ha.

there is no real reason to discuss only his time in Atlanta, unless you are conceding that there is something different about him hitting baseballs in a Braves uniform than there was in St Louis uniform.

If you do concede that, then I don't understand your argument.

I don't feel the need to make loud predictions and then try to shout down everyone who disagrees. I'm content to wait and see what happens. But you are welcome to assign a prediction to me and claim I was wrong later if you want.

 

[mfree80]

Now I know you know I have always talked exclusively about his time with the Braves, during which he has had a sky-high HR rate.

The topic is how much better Adams is. He has only gotten better since joining the Braves.

Stop acting like there is any ambiguity with what I've been saying.

Either make a solid projection, or stop arguing just to be contrarian like a little twat sitting in class critiquing the professor's spelling on the blackboard.

Really have to LOL at Escheff telling people not to be a contrarian! Just don't close with a personal insult quite so often.

 

[DirkPiggler]

So in a lost season you want to move Freddie to 3B to make room for a league avg offensive 1B? That makes a lot of sense. If Adams isn't a plus bat it really serves no purpose.

Never said that. But I at least understand the reasoning.

It's a matter of degrees. You don't have to be a plus bat to be a big improvement over a minus-minus bat. The guys we've tried thus far at 3B will have to get a hell of a lot better to even scare "average". Camargo has done well, but I'd argue that expecting him to keep up his current pace is at least as unreasonable as expecting Adams to keep up his.

A lost season is the best time to try something like this if you're going to do it. I sure wouldn't want Freeman learning 3B in the middle of a pennant race. Of course, if we were in a pennant race it would probably mean we had someone who was a better player than Adams who could play 3B.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

So in a lost season you want to move Freddie to 3B to make room for a league avg offensive 1B? That makes a lot of sense. If Adams isn't a plus bat it really serves no purpose.

Show me all of these average-plus bats at 3B that are available for as cheap as Adams' average-plus bat. All of them are locked down...Not that it matters anyway, because Freeman will be a disaster.

 

[thewupk]

Show me all of these average-plus bats at 3B that are available for as cheap as Adams' average-plus bat. All of them are locked down...Not that it matters anyway, because Freeman will be a disaster.

There are usually some available every offseason. The Braves just have to make a concentrated effort to to target these players instead of 'seeing what they have' in players like Garcia. I would say you don't move franchise players off their position just to replace them with an average player but the Braves have done that in the past so what do I know.

 

[Russ2dollas]

There are usually some available every offseason. The Braves just have to make a concentrated effort to to target these players instead of 'seeing what they have' in players like Garcia. I would say you don't move franchise players off their position just to replace them with an average player but the Braves have done that in the past so what do I know.

who?

3b is down. Frazier is the only guy i can think of.

also to be fair i tink its clear they expected srod to play a bunch at 3B. maybe that would have been bad too but we will never know

 

[Southcack77]

who?

3b is down. Frazier is the only guy i can think of.

also to be fair i tink its clear they expected srod to play a bunch at 3B. maybe that would have been bad too but we will never know

Here is a list sorted by WRC+

I suppose one could pick out the average plus 3B who was recently signed for cheap from here if you were so inclined.

1 Anthony RendonNationals 73 306 16 43 50 4 14.4 % 14.1 % .260 .303 .298 .402 .558 .403 148 0.0 19.0 5.5 3.4
2 Jose Ramirez Indians 77 322 12 53 36 9 8.1 % 12.1 % .235 .336 .321 .376 .556 .390 145 -3.0 14.9 3.7 3.0
3 Kris Bryant Cubs 74 329 16 50 32 6 16.1 % 21.6 % .257 .301 .264 .395 .520 .386 139 0.1 16.5 0.0 2.7
4 Miguel Sano Twins 71 297 18 46 53 0 13.8 % 35.4 % .270 .383 .270 .370 .539 .379 137 -1.4 12.1 -0.8 2.2
5 Travis Shaw Brewers 70 300 17 41 57 7 8.7 % 20.7 % .268 .325 .294 .357 .563 .383 133 -0.1 12.5 -1.4 2.1
6 Jake Lamb Diamondbacks 76 334 18 51 64 4 13.2 % 25.7 % .265 .346 .286 .380 .551 .384 132 -0.2 13.4 -1.5 2.2
7 Jedd Gyorko Cardinals 69 274 12 30 39 4 9.1 % 20.8 % .220 .341 .298 .361 .518 .370 129 0.1 10.2 1.3 2.0
8 Josh Harrison Pirates 76 328 9 34 27 10 6.4 % 15.5 % .165 .330 .296 .377 .461 .361 125 1.3 11.9 2.4 2.5
9 Ryon Healy Athletics 78 319 19 36 50 0 3.4 % 26.6 % .246 .317 .272 .301 .518 .342 117 -4.0 2.8 -8.8 0.5
10 Mike Moustakas Royals 70 294 20 37 47 0 5.1 % 17.0 % .268 .264 .272 .310 .540 .351 117 -2.2 4.0 1.4 1.6
11 Eugenio Suarez Reds 77 309 12 45 42 3 12.0 % 22.0 % .201 .301 .258 .359 .458 .352 114 -0.5 5.2 5.2 2.0
12 Yunel Escobar Angels 62 270 5 30 23 1 7.8 % 13.3 % .129 .324 .290 .348 .419 .333 112 -3.5 0.4 -0.9 0.9
13 Nolan Arenado Rockies 80 348 15 50 61 2 6.9 % 17.2 % .253 .318 .294 .346 .547 .370 110 0.7 5.4 9.3 2.6
14 Joey Gallo Rangers 73 275 20 46 40 4 12.0 % 38.9 % .314 .232 .192 .298 .506 .337 106 4.8 6.8 -1.2 1.5
15 Alex Bregman Astros 75 292 8 31 26 6 9.6 % 16.8 % .156 .282 .253 .333 .409 .322 102 -1.9 -1.2 -2.8 0.6
16 Evan Longoria Rays 78 346 12 43 47 2 8.7 % 17.6 % .181 .274 .252 .318 .434 .317 99 0.7 0.5 1.9 1.4
17 Kyle Seager Mariners 77 328 9 31 44 1 9.1 % 16.5 % .161 .280 .253 .326 .414 .315 99 -2.2 -2.7 3.1 1.2
18 Eduardo Nunez Giants 64 267 4 33 25 17 3.7 % 8.6 % .114 .314 .299 .323 .413 .316 97 4.3 3.3 -1.5 1.0
19 Todd Frazier White Sox 69 285 13 32 37 4 14.4 % 21.1 % .208 .218 .208 .323 .417 .319 97 -1.3 -2.5 1.6 0.9
20 Chase Headley Yankees 69 282 4 32 32 6 11.7 % 24.1 % .118 .331 .253 .344 .371 .313 93 2.5 0.1 0.0 1.0
21 Nick Castellanos Tigers 76 322 9 36 39 2 7.8 % 24.5 % .175 .298 .240 .307 .414 .310 91 -1.1 -4.7 -3.7 0.3
22 Manny Machado Orioles 73 321 15 33 38 4 9.3 % 20.9 % .209 .231 .220 .293 .429 .305 86 1.3 -4.3 8.4 1.5
23 Maikel Franco Phillies 73 306 10 26 38 0 7.5 % 14.1 % .154 .227 .222 .281 .376 .281 70 -0.5 -12.4 -2.9 -0.5
24 Jose Reyes Mets 75 293 6 32 26 10 9.2 % 13.3 % .130 .211 .199 .272 .330 .262 61 2.1 -12.6 -1.9 -0.5