Braves are savlaging a salary dump (FG article on Maybin's resurgence)

Carp said:
He's been pretty good even when taking into account his bad month. And since taking over as a full time starter, he's maintained a .292 average, even with his terrible July.
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Between Maybin, Peterson and Markakis, I think Maybin is the mostly likely to be a 2 WAR or better player in 2016. I think he will sustain most of the offensive improvement he's shown this year and his defense will snap back. This is his worst defensive season. Given the relevant sample size, it is like a one or two month hitting slump.
 
Dalyn said:
So his brief spark of offense is real, his brief below average defense is not?
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My point is that the effective sample size of challenging defensive plays in a season is much smaller than the number of plate appearances. So I would be inclined to give more weight to defensive performance in past seasons.
 
nsacpi said:
My point is that the effective sample size of challenging defensive plays in a season is much smaller than the number of plate appearances. So I would be inclined to give more weight to defensive performance in past seasons.
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Agreed. Also an extremely compelling reason to NOT think his offense is real. He has over 2k at-bats in his career. 150 or so good ones in a season are not even close to enough to say those are a better indication of his future numbers.
 
Carp said:
He's been pretty good even when taking into account his bad month. And since taking over as a full time starter, he's maintained a .292 average, even with his terrible July.
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Am I the only one that finds it funny to see so many people scream we ought to be selling high on Cam when they were more than happy to extend at least one of Heyward or J-Up for 2-3 times the amount of money Maybin makes when they also had full months (if not longer) of cold streaks?

Player A:

113 games, .288/.344/.438/.782, 24 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 11 HRs, 34/71 BB/K Ratio, 114 OPS+, 2.5 oWAR, 0.9 dWAR

Player B:

107 games, .277/.336/.397/.733, 16 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 9 HRs, 35/73 BB/K Ratio, 103 OPS+, 2.3 oWAR, -1.3 dWAR

Even with the bad July, Maybin has essentially been Heyward since he became the starter considering the different defensive positions.
 
nsacpi said:
My point is that the effective sample size of challenging defensive plays in a season is much smaller than the number of plate appearances. So I would be inclined to give more weight to defensive performance in past seasons.
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Agree with this. I typically look at data across 3 or more seasons before making a judgment on the defensive metrics. Here's what that looks like for Maybin 2012-2015 (3+seasons) with minimum 2000 innings played in CF:

UZR / 150: -3.2 (21st out of 27 CFs)

DRS: -6 (18th out of 27 CFs)

These were Maybin's age 25-28 seasons. In addition to these averages of his past defensive performance, the trendline is pointing down. I think it's fair to project Maybin as a below average defender in CF for his age 29 and 30 seasons (last year of contract + option).
 
clvclv said:
Am I the only one that finds it funny to see so many people scream we ought to be selling high on Cam when they were more than happy to extend at least one of Heyward or J-Up for 2-3 times the amount of money Maybin makes when they also had full months (if not longer) of cold streaks?

Player A:
113 games, .288/.344/.438/.782, 24 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 11 HRs, 34/71 BB/K Ratio, 114 OPS+, 2.5 oWAR, 0.9 dWAR

Player B:
107 games, .277/.336/.397/.733, 16 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 9 HRs, 35/73 BB/K Ratio, 103 OPS+, 2.3 oWAR, -1.3 dWAR

Even with the bad July, Maybin has essentially been Heyward since he became the starter considering the different defensive positions.
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My understanding is that the positional adjustments in dWAR are baked into the number. In other words, the numbers you provided for 2015 include Maybin getting an extra boost for playing CF versus RF. So it's a fairly small sample for WAR purposes, but Heyward has posted a considerably higher WAR than Maybin (3.4 to 1.0).
 
dak said:
My understanding is that the positional adjustments in dWAR are baked into the number. In other words, the numbers you provided for 2015 include Maybin getting an extra boost for playing CF versus RF. So it's a fairly small sample for WAR purposes, but Heyward has posted a considerably higher WAR than Maybin (3.4 to 1.0).
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This has been my point the entire time. $20 million+ per year for Maybin's bat and better RF defense? No thanks. Move Cam to a corner and save a whole lot of money.
 
clvclv said:
This has been my point the entire time. $20 million+ per year for Maybin's bat and better RF defense? No thanks. Move Cam to a corner and save a whole lot of money.
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Maybin's bat? We are talking .252 .313 .370 .684 vs .266 .350 .431 .781.
 
Do what?

Career wRC+ Heyward 117; 2015- 116

Career wRC+ Maybin 91; 2015- 104

How are these two things even remotely equal?
 
gilesfan said:
Do what?

Career wRC+ Heyward 117; 2015- 116

Career wRC+ Maybin 91; 2015- 104

How are these two things even remotely equal?
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Apparently the Braves would much rather pay $9 million for this in 2016 than $150 million plus for 7-8 seasons and hope his defense doesn't decline since you can't attribute the difference in those numbers to anything Jason's done with a bat in his hands.
 
clvclv said:
Apparently the Braves would much rather pay $9 million for this in 2016 than $150 million plus for 7-8 seasons and hope his defense doesn't decline since you can't attribute the difference in those numbers to anything Jason's done with a bat in his hands.
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well ok. Didn't answer my question, but ok.
 
clvclv said:
Apparently the Braves would much rather pay $9 million for this in 2016 than $150 million plus for 7-8 seasons and hope his defense doesn't decline since you can't attribute the difference in those numbers to anything Jason's done with a bat in his hands.
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:happy0157:

wRC has nothing to do with defense.
 
nsacpi said:
Small sample. What do u expect from his next 30 pinch hitting appearances.
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Not sure you're gonna find a "large sample" pinch-hitting stat. I believe in the eyeball test; does a guy look like he's enjoying the moment? Ciracio does, Julio Franco did, and your mindset is half the battle. But I can't prove it.
 
clvclv said:
Am I the only one that finds it funny to see so many people scream we ought to be selling high on Cam when they were more than happy to extend at least one of Heyward or J-Up for 2-3 times the amount of money Maybin makes when they also had full months (if not longer) of cold streaks?

Player A:
113 games, .288/.344/.438/.782, 24 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 11 HRs, 34/71 BB/K Ratio, 114 OPS+, 2.5 oWAR, 0.9 dWAR

Player B:
107 games, .277/.336/.397/.733, 16 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 9 HRs, 35/73 BB/K Ratio, 103 OPS+, 2.3 oWAR, -1.3 dWAR

Even with the bad July, Maybin has essentially been Heyward since he became the starter considering the different defensive positions.
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Yeah. Heyward with his 116 WRC+ and 3.6 WAR is essentially the same as Maybins 104 WRC+ and 1.1 WAR.
 
I think we need to keep Maybin because he's a perfect poster boy for buying into Seitzer's hitting approach. It's worked for him and it will work for everyone else. We just need some power on both sides of him, not Bourn and Markakis.
 
Pence just went on the DL. Now might be the time to send them Maybin if he can make it to them on the waiver wire.
 
Equal? No. But not too far off Heyward's numbers. And pretty similar to Heyward's 2014.

Hard to argue giving Heyward at 200 million when you have Maybin who could give you similar production if moved to a corner spot, at a fraction of the cost.
 
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