Braves are savlaging a salary dump (FG article on Maybin's resurgence)

nsacpi said:
Here is what I think is more likely to happen next off-season:

1) We sign Zobrist for 2 years plus an option at about $13M/year.

2) We sign Dioner Navaro or Chris Ianetta for 2 years plus an option at about 8M/year.

3) We sign Uribe or Kelly Johnson on a 1 year deal at abut 5M/year

4) We sign Jim Johnson or similar veteran reliever on a 2 year deal at about 5M/year.

We might spend a little more, but I think payroll will be about $90M in 2016.
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If this is all that happens I can see the Braves being an 85 win team, assuming the young guns in the rotation continue to progress. Another bat will need to be acquired by 2017 to be a serious WS contender, however.
 
clvclv said:
This is Year One of that deal. The first seasons of the Uggla and B. J./Melvin deals weren't awful either.
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Why is that a comparison?

It's a cheap cop out to say any free agent deal could end up bad because of Melvin. He's arguably the worst free agency signing ever. The odds of that happening to a player again are pretty minuscule.

Martin is already at 2.2 WAR, which puts him on pace for about 6 WAR this year. Even with a normal decline, Martin projects to be an awesome value that is aided by the fact he's extremely popular in Toronto because he's Canadian. Disagree with the logic behind signing an older catcher, but you can't chalk that one up as a gross overpay.
 
nsacpi said:
Here is what I think is more likely to happen next off-season:

1) We sign Zobrist for 2 years plus an option at about $13M/year.

2) We sign Dioner Navaro or Chris Ianetta for 2 years plus an option at about 8M/year.

3) We sign Uribe or Kelly Johnson on a 1 year deal at abut 5M/year

4) We sign Jim Johnson or similar veteran reliever on a 2 year deal at about 5M/year.

We might spend a little more, but I think payroll will be about $90M in 2016.
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Why would it be that low?
 
Also, while this may be unlikely to happen, I would check with the Yankees on what it might take to send us Mac and some cash. B-Mac hasn't been bad at all, but I don't think he's been quite what they had hoped for. They have some impressive catching prospects and supposedly have had a major jones for Weiters for a while.
 
Carp said:
Also, while this may be unlikely to happen, I would check with the Yankees on what it might take to send us Mac and some cash. B-Mac hasn't been bad at all, but I don't think he's been quite what they had hoped for. They have some impressive catching prospects and supposedly have had a major jones for Weiters for a while.
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CJ and Sims for Mac. Small cash kick in for this year. After this year we'll save about 1/3 of his contract though have the risk of his option. But if Mac is healthy he'll be worth that option. I really miss Mac.
 
nsacpi said:
Attendance lower implies lower revenue implies lower spending
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These numbers are a bit pessimistic since the Braves have only played 10 of their 23 home games on weekends, but our attendance has declined 13% so far as compared to last year. Source is BRef:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/current_attendance.shtml

I looked at the latest data from Forbes to determine how much our expected decline in 2015 attendance might affect 2016 player payroll, and my conclusion is that it won’t be a big factor. See take aways below . . .

1) Gate receipts accounted for just 22% of revenue in 2014. If you throw in concessions and merchandising as the other two variable revenue sources, then probably no more than 40% (my guess) of the Braves' revenue stream is impacted by year-to-year changes in fan interest. If we project a 10% decline in the variable revenue stream (using attendance decrease as a guide), that would bean a 4% revenue decline overall. This equates to $10-11m.

2) This is the bigger take away . . . There does not seem to be a strong correlation between operating income (profit) and player payrolls in the Liberty Media era. In other words, player payroll has been fairly stable while profit has fluctuated considerably. I don't know how to embed a table, but you can see this clearly by comparing the charts in the Forbes article on the right side of the page linked below. Another way to look at this is that our hated corporate owner, Liberty Media, is actually more fair than I thought. They are absorbing the risk of the team’s fluctuating profitability while giving the Braves a pretty stable budget for operating expenses.

Overall conclusion: 2015 revenue may decrease a small amount due to reduced fan interest, but that won’t have much - if any - effect on 2016 player payroll.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/atlanta-braves/
 
jcc03004 said:
I believe martin is Canadian
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And his father is a jazz sax player.

Back to point, let's just sit back and enjoy Maybin and see if his success continues. I imagine advanced scouting will catch up with him a bit and he'll have to make adjustments as opposing teams change their approach to him, but he does look good right now. It appears he has been able to make some changes that have improved his offensive game. Sounds like Seitzer is doing his job (and I'm not one who puts a lot of stock in coaching at the big league level).
 
Imo, payroll is only down because we were able to unload BJ on opening day. If we had that payroll flexibility all offseason, I bet we spend a good bit more of it.
 
It's interesting that Maybin was already working with Switzer prior to being traded to us. Seems like they've made some key adjustments. He's definitely making contact at a better rate and with more authority.
 
Carp said:
It's interesting that Maybin was already working with Switzer prior to being traded to us. Seems like they've made some key adjustments. He's definitely making contact at a better rate and with more authority.
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All his plate discipline stats are within standard deviation. He's made contact at this level before, hardly unheard of. Infact the only thing out of standard deviation is out of zone contact, which is fluky. That stat will go up and down and all around. What's good is that he's swinging less.That's his strength.
 
Haven't read through this thread. Just wondering if there has been a post about Maybin being overly lucky and how this won't continue on. He has never hit this well before and the law of averages says he will decline. You know that sort of stuff.
 
Carp said:
Imo, payroll is only down because we were able to unload BJ on opening day. If we had that payroll flexibility all offseason, I bet we spend a good bit more of it.
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Good point. Maybe we don't have a bullpen full of barnacle.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Haven't read through this thread. Just wondering if there has been a post about Maybin being overly lucky and how this won't continue on. He has never hit this well before and the law of averages says he will decline. You know that sort of stuff.
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You should read the thread then since it's about how what Maybin is doing is sustainable.
 
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