Right. I think we would be selling low right now. I'm a very big fan of Minor but I think we need to see what happens this year. Let him rebuild his value during the first half and if Jenkins and Hursh look good then spin him off.
Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects
- Thread starter mikewon
- Start date
Right. I think we would be selling low right now. I'm a very big fan of Minor but I think we need to see what happens this year. Let him rebuild his value during the first half and if Jenkins and Hursh look good then spin him off.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He is an ok prospect. But if you look at BA's league lists of Top 20 prospects he is nowhere to be found. And keep in mind that players at the bottom of those lists are fringe prospects. So you have to ask yourself what might be the limitations. One is he is not flying through the minors at a young age. Peraza is a year younger but playing a level higher and having success in tougher hitting environments. This is not to denigrate Smith. It just illustrates the gap between him and a bona fide Top 100 type guy. Peraza might even be a Top 50 guy.
Smith's strikeout rate is a little high. 18.4% in high A. If it holds there going forward that's fine. But typically strikeout rates rise as prospect moves up to higher levels. To cite a comp we are somewhat familiar with. Michael Bourn in his prime years 2009-2012 had a strikeout rate of 20%. It is a fine line. A speed player in the majors with 9% walk rate and a 20% strikeout rate is quite valuable, but one with a 7% walk rate and 23% strikeout rate is a bench player.
At the moment Smith projects more as a bench player, but he has a shot of being a regular. It is a good thing to have prospects like that. But we need to value them based upon a realistic understanding of the probabilities for their development paths.
I try to be realistic about all of our prospects. Kubitza is my favorite fringe prospect at the moment. I look at his walk rates and strikeout rates and ISO numbers from last season and that looks like a very useful major league player. But most players who played in AA at his age see their strikeout and walk rate numbers deteriorate as they move up to AAA and then the majors. So I conclude that his chances of being a major league regular are less than 50%, maybe in the 25-35% range. Smith's chances are a bit less, maybe in the 10-20% range.
When I see a guy with a high walk and K rate (mildly high) it gives me the impression of a guy who grinds out AB's and makes pitchers work. If you put a guy like that at the top of a lineup with blazing speed then I think you have something worth getting excited over. Sure, he coudl regress as he moves to AA but he will be in his age 21 season there in all liklihood which is a solid developmental track.
Exactly. I don't think anybody expects him to continue getting on base at a .400 clip. But if that can translate to even .350-.360 in the majors he'll be a major asset with his speed at the top of the order.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If you were right about him being in his age 21 season in 2015 that would change my assessment of him quite a bit. But he was in his age 21 season in 2014.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah a speed player with a .350-.360 OBP in the majors is a great asset. But I don't think the odds favor Smith doing that. In his age 21 season, Jordan Schafer was already in AA and put up an OBP of .378 and OPS of .879. And keep in mind that our minor league players don't come up playing in very hitter friendly environments like the California League and Texas League and PCL. If you want to make California League numbers comparable to Carolina League numbers you need to apply a 15-20 percent haircut. And the same goes for the Texas League relative to the Southern League.
His DOB is 5/6/93. Sure its a cheap way to say he is in his age 21 season but that is how they define it. At the start of the 2015 season he will still be 21.
Schafer was on roids. Terrible comparison IMO.
But a hugely important fact about league that they play in. It's like the guys on the West Coast are raiding bc of the parks
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is somewhat arbitrary but the convention is to look at players age as of June 30, which is about halfway through the season.
Thats a fair point but this guy isn't slugging home runs. He is getting by on his speed and ability to discern balls from strikes. I don't care if he slugs 350 in the majors if he has around a 350 OBP.
Fair enough, but even with your convention 22 in AA is a good developmental track.
If he slugs .350 in the PCL then ML pitching is going to eat him up
I don't even understand how this is a response to what you quoted.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Oh this is not about Jordan Schafer. I could cite other players who were more advanced and rated higher at age 21. Felix Pie for example.
But it is not even about these individual examples. It is about the full distribution of outcomes for players like Smith who split their 21 year old (or 20.75458 year old seasons if you prefer) between Low A and High A and have the kind of numbers he put up in the kind of hitting environment like the California League. Smith is a decent prospect. But we need to get real about how hard a path it is toward becoming a major league regular and what the odds are for a player with Smith's profile (age, speed, hitting numbers for the leagues he was in last year).
There is a reason BA did no see fit to include Smith in any of their league Top 20 lists. And keep in mind that some of our players like Terdoslavich, La Stella, Salcedo have made those lists in recent years. Smith properly ranks below players like that in terms of his chances to become a major league regular. And no I'm not saying those lists are infallible and the final word on everything. We are talking about probabilities here. Some players off the lists make it, others on the lists don't. But the people who put those lists together are pretty well informed and the higher you are on the lists the more likely you are to make it.
Pie never had the walk rates this kid have. That is what I'm excited about. High walk rates and speed are an interesting combination IMO. I could be wrong and you are much better at analysis than I am (most obvious thing ever said), but I just believe in that combination. We need guys who present tough AB's after the swing and miss crap we've dealt with for the last three years.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
This conversation is still about Smith, right? Because he only had about a half season in the California League. The rest of his A stats came while playing for Fort Wayne in the Midwest League. Judging by the stats of the rest of that team, it looks like they play in somewhat of a pitcher's park. Either that or most of them are terrible hitters.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
OBP is a stat for which the league and ballpark effects are pretty strong. It is not just about home runs.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
I would add that the goal should be building towards sustainable runs at and in the playoffs. And as many here have put it time and again - with guys that put the ball in play. And that's not the m.o. of the team that others here are lamenting it's break-up. And there was nothing in the track record of these past 4 or so years (the years thewupk holds up) that makes me think otherwise. So with a team constructed that way, being patched year to year, and with a farm system getting worse by the year, and with crappy owners, and guys like Heyward and Upton heading out the door asap, then I am fine with Hart tearing it down.
There are current franchises such as the Giants and the Cardinals that sort of buck the "crapshoot" line. It'd be nice to be in their shoes in 2 years.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
Another poster put the As & Braves together based on their winning percentages.