BRAVES FINAL DRAFT SIGNING BOARD: Backstrom on board!

When a draft is bad, it becomes obvious very quickly.

The good drafts take a little longer to become apparent. What I hope for with respect to this draft is that a year from now as few players as possible have been filtered out.

If we look at last year's draft, it is already clear it is a poor one (even accounting for not signing the #1 pick and not having a #3 due to Coppy's shenanigans). Our top 3 picks--Jenista, Beck, Riley--all look like washouts. Vodnik could be a late round gem. I have some hopes for Graffanino and Alexander but they have been injured. At best, however, those two projected as bench players. Then there are a few Cinderella type possibilities--Logan Brown, Trey Harris, Justin Dean. But the best that can be said about them is they have kept themselves in the picture. Aside from Vodnik, there is no high upside possibility from this draft. I'll add Kingham to the list of players to mention from the 2018 draft. He could end up as a poor man's Tomlin.
 
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Given that Jenitsa is already in AA, is reportedly still working through a swing-adjustment, and has good tools, I think it’s way too early to call him a washout.

I was critical of the Beck pick, but he’s barely been able to make pitch so far, so that seems premature as well.

Riley has certainly been a disappointment.
 
i'd also agree it's too early to make some calls on last year's draft...and would you have to include Langeliers in that group considering he's technically the 1st round pick?
 
jpx7 said:
Given that Jenitsa is already in AA, is reportedly still working through a swing-adjustment, and has good tools, I think it’s way too early to call him a washout.

I was critical of the Beck pick, but he’s barely been able to make pitch so far, so that seems premature as well.

Riley has certainly been a disappointment.
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You are much more optimistic than I am. It is worth comparing 2018 to 2017 and 2016. I will set aside the first round picks from those drafts because there is no comparable pick from 2018.

But in the supplemental/second rounds we took Waters in 2017 and Wentz and Muller in 2016. All better picks than Jenista.

Among picks after the second round we have quite a few who have not been filtered out from 2017 (Tarnok, Bacon, Zimmerman who has been traded, and Delgado) and from 2016 (Wilson, Walker, Davidson, Clouse). Most will not pan out but they are still hanging in there with a chance. The 2016s are pretty impressive as a group. But it is too early to call it a good draft. For a draft to be average it has to have one impact player. There are a number of candidates from 2016, but it hasn't happened yet. Otoh I'm comfortable declaring 2015 a successful vintage due to Soroka coming from that year. It could be a great vintage if Riley pans out.

Over the past dozen years we've had 2 great vintages (2 or more impact players). 2007 (with Heyward and Freeman) and 2010 (Simmons and Gattis). I consider 2010 superior by virtue of our not having a first round pick that year. Our first pick in 2010 was #35 overall and our first pick was 2007 #14 overall. When you consider where we were picking 2010 has to get the nod.
 
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nsacpi said:
You are much more optimistic than I am. It is worth comparing 2018 to 2017 and 2016. I will set aside the first round picks from those drafts because there is no comparable pick from 2018.

But in the supplemental/second rounds we took Waters in 2017 and Wentz, Muller, Riley and Minter in 2016. All better picks than Jenista.

Among picks after the second round we have quite a few who have not been filtered out from 2017 (Tarnok, Bacon, Zimmerman who has been traded, and Delgado) and from 2016 (Wilson, Walker, Davidson, Clouse). Most will not pan out but they are still hanging in there with a chance. The 2016s are pretty impressive as a group.
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if you wanted to praise Coppy's drafts, you could've just done it.
 
nsacpi said:
You are much more optimistic than I am. It is worth comparing 2018 to 2017 and 2016. I will set aside the first round picks from those drafts because there is no comparable pick from 2018.

But in the supplemental/second rounds we took Waters in 2017 and Wentz and Muller in 2016. All better picks than Jenista.

Among picks after the second round we have quite a few who have not been filtered out from 2017 (Tarnok, Bacon, Zimmerman who has been traded, and Delgado) and from 2016 (Wilson, Walker, Davidson, Clouse). Most will not pan out but they are still hanging in there with a chance. The 2016s are pretty impressive as a group. But it is too early to call it a good draft. For a draft to be average it has to have one impact player. There are a number of candidates from 2016, but it hasn't happened yet. Otoh I'm comfortable declaring 2015 a successful vintage due to Soroka coming from that year. It could be a great vintage if Riley pans out.
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I’m not sure it’s optimism as much as mitigating-circumstance-based conservatism. Jenista is only 22, has been promoted aggressively, has reportedly been working through a swing adjustment, has maintained solid walk-rates in spite of that, only has around ~500 PA total in his professional career so far, and putatively has good tools. That just seems like far less than the threshold of “washout”.

Likewise, I was never a big believer in Beck, but he’s pitched all of 18.2 innings professionally; if we’re giving Graffanino and Alexander injury-passes, it seems like Beck deserves one, too—even allowing that injuries are more concerning, and more likely career-threatening, for pitchers.

I’m more comfortable thinking Riley may washout, however, since he’s a 21-year-old in A-ball who seems to be unable to command the ball well enough to let his stuff play up (6.30 k/9 v 5.04 bb/9 in 50 IP). Still, he’ll get some chances, I’m sure.
 
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nsacpi said:
When a draft is bad, it becomes obvious very quickly.

The good drafts take a little longer to become apparent. What I hope for with respect to this draft is that a year from now as few players as possible have been filtered out.

If we look at last year's draft, it is already clear it is a poor one (even accounting for not signing the #1 pick and not having a #3 due to Coppy's shenanigans). Our top 3 picks--Jenista, Beck, Riley--all look like washouts. Vodnik could be a late round gem. I have some hopes for Graffanino and Alexander but they have been injured. At best, however, those two projected as bench players. Then there are a few Cinderella type possibilities--Logan Brown, Trey Harris, Justin Dean. But the best that can be said about them is they have kept themselves in the picture. Aside from Vodnik, there is no high upside possibility from this draft. I'll add Kingham to the list of players to mention from the 2018 draft. He could end up as a poor man's Tomlin.
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You're much more pessimistic on Jenista and Graffanino than I am. I think both have a chance. I agree it's been a disappointing draft overall so far.
 
CJ9 said:
DOB wrote that Langeliers will be at the game tonight. He also said that Shewmake will start playing at Rome whenever they deem him ready for action.

He also said they signed Langeliers for $1 million less than slot because he was expected to go 15-19 overall if not 9 to Atlanta.
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Also worth noting that there is a real 2019 bonus-pool difference in signing Shewmake for slot, versus not signing him at all (as some have suggested would be “preferable”, given his perceived lack of upside and the grass-is greener view on next year’s draft).

Losing the #21 slot from the pool, thanks to the 5% overage, would actually cost the Braves $156,615 in pool space—which might in fact represent the funds needed to lock down one of the day-three high-schoolers (if you assume they’ll need around double the $125k penalty-free bonus). That’s a non-trivial amount, especially in light of the day-three strategy.
 
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nsacpi said:
When a draft is bad, it becomes obvious very quickly.

The good drafts take a little longer to become apparent. What I hope for with respect to this draft is that a year from now as few players as possible have been filtered out.

If we look at last year's draft, it is already clear it is a poor one (even accounting for not signing the #1 pick and not having a #3 due to Coppy's shenanigans). Our top 3 picks--Jenista, Beck, Riley--all look like washouts. Vodnik could be a late round gem. I have some hopes for Graffanino and Alexander but they have been injured. At best, however, those two projected as bench players. Then there are a few Cinderella type possibilities--Logan Brown, Trey Harris, Justin Dean. But the best that can be said about them is they have kept themselves in the picture. Aside from Vodnik, there is no high upside possibility from this draft. I'll add Kingham to the list of players to mention from the 2018 draft. He could end up as a poor man's Tomlin.
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The success or failure of the 2018 draft to me hinges on the longer term projections of Alexander and Graffanino. Alexander's injury is sounding much more like a pre-existing condition, but one that should be fully repaired (bone spurs). Graffanino seems much more problematic. Brown and Harris have been sensational, Vodnik was a steal, agree that Stewart-Beck-Riley were bad enough picks to cost Bridges his job. Jenista seems to have tools that a lot of people like; I withhold judgement for the moment on his status.

FYI, there is another thread started well before the draft that is the place for pissing contests and whining. Wanted this thread to be all or mostly about info on draftees and signing updates. Please?
 
nsacpi said:
Kid had some bargaining power. Elon scholarship.
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He had the most leverage of any of the second day guys because the fifth round slot is relatively low. I guess 600 K was his number and the Braves knew that when the drafted him. Higher cost of living in Connecticut than in Georgia, so that had to be factored in (JK).
 
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