Braves get Murphy 3 way deal

50PoundHead said:
Who is wetting their pants? It might work, but Anthopoulos has painted us into a corner to some extent.
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Even if half the core that was extended is really bad, the Braves could easily trade the other half that’s performing well to rebuild quickly. AA has set the team up well for an escape if needed. The only way this truly blows up in AA’s face is if the majority of these extensions get underwater. (At $9m per WAR that basically means < 2 WAR performance).

OTOH, it’s probably fair statement to say that this group of players is basically our championship core. Morton’s salary will go to Fried (or a different starter), and we will likely see Rosario/Ozuna money go to an OF in two years. There’s not much flexibility to fill in around the margin. Oh well, first world problems.
 
The only extension I think could go bad is the Strider deal and that’s bc I could see his arm falling off.
 
chop2chip said:
How anyone thinks this is remotely a possibility is hilarious to me.

The Braves have an incredibly smart front office with lots of analytical people. If message board posters who chat about the Braves on their lunch break know how the luxury tax works, I don’t see how it’s impossible this regime doesn’t.
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Well someone doesn’t understand something, and it probably means it’s us without some bit of info about the financials of the organization.

The only way this makes sense from a luxury tax perspective is if the long term plan is to jack payroll up so high 5 years from now that they benefit from having a cap number less than the actual payroll number. If they can pay $260M on a cap number of $240 in 5 years that would be pretty sweet.
 
Hudson2 said:
The only extension I think could go bad is the Strider deal and that’s bc I could see his arm falling off.
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Riley and Olson are pretty big bat-only risks. Harris has major platoon concerns. Murphy is a catcher signed into his mid-30s. Acuna has had major knee surgery.

There is plenty of very real risk in these deals, and there is no way to change course. If this core doesn’t age well it’s not going to be pretty, and AA will be selling off the few parts that are playing well to kick start a pretty deep rebuild while the bad contracts expire.
 
Enscheff said:
Riley and Olson are pretty big bat-only risks. Harris has major platoon concerns. Murphy is a catcher signed into his mid-30s. Acuna has had major knee surgery.

There is plenty of very real risk in these deals, and there is no way to change course. If this core doesn’t age well it’s not going to be pretty, and AA will be selling off the few parts that are playing well to kick start a pretty deep rebuild while the bad contracts expire.
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You're definitely right. But I think regardless of if these guys were given extensions or not, there wasn't going to be an ability to change course anyway if the guys don't pan out, because the farm system is so barren. If Riley Olson and Murphy end up turning into pumpkins, they likely wouldn't be bringing back much in a trade anyway.
 
Enscheff said:
Well someone doesn’t understand something, and it probably means it’s us without some bit of info about the financials of the organization.

The only way this makes sense from a luxury tax perspective is if the long term plan is to jack payroll up so high 5 years from now that they benefit from having a cap number less than the actual payroll number. If they can pay $260M on a cap number of $240 in 5 years that would be pretty sweet.
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I think this is the plan.

The cap number goes to 244 in 3 years at the end of the current CBA. My guess is the cap will increase to to over 250 in the next CBA. The Braves should see a TV revenue increase once their current deal is over in a few years. So its very possible we could see a high salary team with a low cap number in the future.

Instead of kicking the CBT problem down the road it looks like the Braves are taking the hit now.

I like the Murphy extension. The only thing that surprised me is that is didn’t happen sooner.
 
this extention doesn't make sense from the tax perspective. If it is going to put you officially over the threshold, then why not just front load it to make the difference between actual salary and tax salary move closer not farther away. Why not just flip the numbers so that the last year is only 4 million with the option still being what it is. That way if he does regress, it is easy to trade or release. It really does make you wonder if AA plans to somehow cut payroll or if they don't understand the penalty rule somehow.. I am with Cheff on this.. we need some deep dive why an org would do this this way.


Over all, I like the extension. I am not sure Murphy ages well, so the last 2 years could be TDA lite quality.. which is why I would love the deal be way more front loaded.
 
nsacpi said:
The extensions and the state of the farm system are related to each other.
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This is a good point. Unless we hit on an unusual amount of draft picks, it's gonna take a minimum of 3-4 drafts and international signing periods along with not trading away our top prospects, just to build our farm back up to league average. We might have the worst farm in the majors at the moment.
 
Carp said:
This is a good point. Unless we hit on an unusual amount of draft picks, it's gonna take a minimum of 3-4 drafts and international signing periods along with not trading away our top prospects, just to build our farm back up to league average. We might have the worst farm in the majors at the moment.
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why my least favorite trade is the Malloy for Jimenez. Not saying Malloy becomes a MLB'er.. but I am fairly confident he would still continue to grow as a prospect this next year and been more valuable than a one year reliever with one good year. Just resign Luke and roll the dice while keeping one of your best prospects.
 
Enscheff said:
Riley and Olson are pretty big bat-only risks. Harris has major platoon concerns. Murphy is a catcher signed into his mid-30s. Acuna has had major knee surgery.

There is plenty of very real risk in these deals, and there is no way to change course. If this core doesn’t age well it’s not going to be pretty, and AA will be selling off the few parts that are playing well to kick start a pretty deep rebuild while the bad contracts expire.
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Precisely my major concern. Even if the extensions look reasonable now and will remain so, if Olson, Riley, et. al., start declining, they won't net that much in returns and given the state of the farm system right now, it would be a very deep rebuild if their decline takes place sooner rather than later.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
why my least favorite trade is the Malloy for Jimenez. Not saying Malloy becomes a MLB'er.. but I am fairly confident he would still continue to grow as a prospect this next year and been more valuable than a one year reliever with one good year. Just resign Luke and roll the dice while keeping one of your best prospects.
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The problem with Luke Jackson is that we don’t know if he is 100% and I am talking about rehabilitation. Braves have a few high risk with the bullpen with Yates and Anderson. I don’t doubt Jackson come back sooner or later.
 
nsacpi said:
The extensions and the state of the farm system are related to each other.
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Agree, which does bring up the question as to why they shipped out so many prospects in the Murphy and Jimenez deals. Maybe all those guys (save Contreras) are AAAA guys so it's no big deal, but there simply is no depth below the big league club right now in AAA or AA.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
The problem with Luke Jackson is that we don’t know if he is 100% and I am talking about rehabilitation. Braves have a few high risk with the bullpen with Yates and Anderson. I don’t doubt Jackson come back sooner or later.
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then sign one of the other 29 relievers sitting on the FA market. Jimenez is not that special imo. had a career low HR/FB rate that really helped his numbers.
 
Anthopoulos on strategy of locking up young core:

"There's risk to this. We've had elite young players get hurt (Soroka/Acuna) ... guys have down years. ... We do like the fact that guys can worry about just going out and playing. ... There's continuity and stability." #Braves
 
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