LOL, do we have hidden major league ready talent just waiting to go for next year?
We aren't finishing .500 next year without an enormous influx of cash to sign every free agent on the market.
Braves interested in Chris Sale...
- Thread starter blueagleace1
- Start date
LOL, do we have hidden major league ready talent just waiting to go for next year?
We aren't finishing .500 next year without an enormous influx of cash to sign every free agent on the market.
Another issue though is the talent in the division. We won't have anywhere near the talent to compete with the Nats/Mets/Marlins unless each have injuries to their pitching talent. Would 4th place get you a .500 record? Are we going to even be better than the Phils next year because the trio of Nola/Valasquez/Eickhoff are performing better than our young pitchers are. (outside of Teheran, obviously)
I doubt we are going to tank first year in a new Ballpark.
The problem there is we are going to have to do a lot better than simply get by with our starting pitching in order to be an 80-85 win team next year. They will have to be very good for that to happen. Our offense is horrific right now, and even adding average pieces at 3B, LF, and C plus adding Swanson and Albies would leave us in the bottom third of the league in runs most likely. I see us needing a top third pitching staff in order to be a .500 team next year, unless we are trading or signing a couple elite bats in the offseason rather than merely average to above average bats.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The guys in AA will make a contribution. Not all of them. But between Albies, Swanson, Peterson, Newcomb and Sims, there will be a couple who will be significant contributors at the major league level next year. Probably not in April, but later in the year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Perhaps I should have been more specific about what I meant by get by. I think we need the starting rotation to generate 10 or more wins above replacement next year. That's the quota I have in mind for them. How do we get there? Something like this. 4 from Teheran. 1.5 each from Wisler, Folty and Gant. And the remaining 1.5 from the rest combined. I don't think this is unrealistic. There is about an equal amount of upside and downside risk to that kind of scenario. It could be someone like Wisler or Folty breaks out and makes up for a shortfall elsewhere.
I see us needing more than that to be an above .500 team. Take 2014 for example, we got just under 11 WAR from our starting 5, had an excellent bullpen, and had 79 wins. Our offense was of course terrible that year, but it's terrible right now as well. I think your expectations for how the pitching will perform is mostly realistic (though I don't see Wisler getting 1.5 WAR, and assuming Gant gets 1.5 is a big stretch right now), I just don't see that performance most likely getting us a winning record.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I think Gant will come through and be the clear #3 next year... I'm also liking the prospects of Whalen now. Albies and Swanson are definitely high end talent and should be ready/close to ready next year. Make a trade/sign a catcher upgrade, trade/sign for a RFer and 3B... you pretty clearly have a team that could compete if you don't trade Teheran. We should certainly have the money. I say trade for Lucroy and sign Desmond for 3rd and Cespedes for RF. I know we won't, but we will likely have the money and you're deluding yourself if you don't think that team would compete.
Albies
Swanson
Freeman
Cespedes
Desmond
Lucroy
Inciarte
Smith
Teheran, Folty, Gant, Wisler/Whalen/Newcomb/Sims/Kelly/cheap veterans to round it out with a very strong bullpen
That's a very good lineup and a rotation with some real potential.
Albies
Swanson
Freeman
Cespedes
Desmond
Lucroy
Inciarte
Smith
Teheran, Folty, Gant, Wisler/Whalen/Newcomb/Sims/Kelly/cheap veterans to round it out with a very strong bullpen
That's a very good lineup and a rotation with some real potential.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
My claim is that in order to be a .500 team (75-85 wins) we need a quota of at least 10 wins above replacement from the starting pitching. I don't see how that is inconsistent with what you are saying about the 2014 team.
The pen should be decent to strong in 2017. I like our core group (Viz, Alvarez, Krol, Cervenka, Withrow, Cabrera). Simmons, Winkler and Paco Rodriguez all have a track record of success at the major league level and will be coming back from injury. We have some promising arms in AAA and AA. Janas and Dirks particular, plus some of the guys who are currently starters might help in the pen. Finally, I would use some of our payroll flexibility to sign someone to help with the high leverage innings.
Payroll flexibility should also be there to substantially upgrade catcher and third. We might also find a way to move Markakis and upgrade the outfield. Less certain of that part.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Probably not but should. Again, the timing is bad.
Thing is it may not be a tank. It may be that they are just that bad.
There is a huge difference between a 75 win and 85 win team. 10 wins is a ton of WAR, that's not just a little luck here and there. That's two entirely different ballclubs you are talking about with 75 wins versus 85. And while I think our pen will be a strength next year, I would be hard pressed to see us being as good as 2014's pen. Kimbrel produced more WAR by himself that year than our current bullpen has in total for the year so far.
And I see us upgrading 3B and catcher for sure, definitely. But we'll need a huge offensive jump to not be a high 60s to low 70s win team, and an even bigger jump to be .500.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
One of the big problems that Coppy has is the total faceplant of the Olivera deal. IF Olivera was what they thought he was, a .300 average, 25 HR 3rd baseman who hits right handed, then that would have changes things for the better this year and would make building next year that much easier. If Olivera really was that, then he slots before or after Freeman and you only need one more power/production bat to have a legit offense.
The other thing was the complete bust (or at least near complete bust) of the Markakis signing.
Right now you have horrible or at least non-productive in a traditional sense starting OF, 3B, SS, 2B and C. The only position player that's really any good at all is Freeman. Flowers is a good 2nd catcher. Jace is a good Utility infielder. Mallex and/or Inciarte are good 4th OF. Albies and Swanson may, MAY be good enough to play above replacement level in 2017, but chances are that they will have to adjust some and still have time to play in AAA.
That's the task ahead for Coppy in the offseason. Fix that.
That doesn't even touch on the uncertainty surrounding the rotation. I think the pitching is essentially in three waves - the Folty, Wisler, Gant, Blair, ManBan, Perez, Ellis, Whalen wave and then the - Newcomb, Sims, Toussaint, Soroka, Fried wave, then the Allard, Anderson, Wentz, Muller wave. The high end talent is in waves two and three. Unless Folty blossoms, the first wave probably provides you with #4 and #5's.
The other thing was the complete bust (or at least near complete bust) of the Markakis signing.
Right now you have horrible or at least non-productive in a traditional sense starting OF, 3B, SS, 2B and C. The only position player that's really any good at all is Freeman. Flowers is a good 2nd catcher. Jace is a good Utility infielder. Mallex and/or Inciarte are good 4th OF. Albies and Swanson may, MAY be good enough to play above replacement level in 2017, but chances are that they will have to adjust some and still have time to play in AAA.
That's the task ahead for Coppy in the offseason. Fix that.
That doesn't even touch on the uncertainty surrounding the rotation. I think the pitching is essentially in three waves - the Folty, Wisler, Gant, Blair, ManBan, Perez, Ellis, Whalen wave and then the - Newcomb, Sims, Toussaint, Soroka, Fried wave, then the Allard, Anderson, Wentz, Muller wave. The high end talent is in waves two and three. Unless Folty blossoms, the first wave probably provides you with #4 and #5's.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
My view is we will be a .500 club. If you look at things like first order (based on runs scored and allowed), second order (based on projected runs scored and allowed) and third order (based on underlying statistics) projections, there are quite a few teams each year who out-perform or under-perform by 5 wins or more. So giving a 10 win range is my way of acknowledging that. FWIW the 2016 version of the Braves is managing to under-perform its first order (by 1 win), its second order (by 3 wins) and its third order (by four wins) projections so far this year. I believe this is where clutchness and veteran leadership comes in. But that is a topic for another thread.
I think folks are understating just how bad this team really is. They are on pace to go 54-108. That would be the 2nd worst record in all of MLB in the 2000's. This team is quite possibly the worst team of this young millennium so far.
The Braves would have to improve by 25 wins just to sniff .500. A team doesn't improve by 25+ wins in a single offseason very often. Adding talent to LF, 3B and C probably adds ~8 wins. Assume Wisler and Folty step up next year and that's another 2-3 wins. Albies and Swanson together will hopefully add another 4 wins.
If you're keeping score, that puts the team around 70 wins, at best. I can maybe see 75 wins if they grab a good pitcher like Moore, who then rebounds to become a TOR starter, and add to the BP a little.
It's a loooong road back to relevance folks. It isn't happening in a single offseason, no matter how perfectly they time promotions and FA signings. This team is one of the worst in MLB history at the moment.
Yeah and the Braves won't exactly be replacing them with all stars. They will be replacing them with an average catcher like Castro, and Swanson, who has shown is probably more of a solid regular than star.
Yeah, that's becoming quite clear from this thread. I mean, if we go out and sign someone like Cespedes along with Desmond and have everything you just posted happen, I can see us just hitting .500. But without that I don't see us hitting more than mid 70s wins unless multiple youngsters come in and post ridiculous numbers.