Braves Meeting with Lester

What good is great pitching if you have to pay defenders 20 million a year. Freeman is the best hitter on the team and he got paid. If Heywood was a great hitter and a below average defender the Braves would have paid him too.
 
Zach Greinke's contract might be one that Lester's agent uses as a model for market value. That deal is 6 / $147m and was made entering 2013, which was Greinke's age 29 season. The AAV on Greinke's deal is $24.5m. If you figure 10% inflation of contracts in the past two years as a conservative guess, that leads to an AAV of about $27m.

Lester will be entering his age 31 season, so I'd hope the Braves would do no more than 5 guaranteed years. Using the above assumptions, market value would then be 5 / $135m. Surely he'd take less than what he could get elsewhere to be at home with his family, but figures like 5 / $90m or 5 / $100m are probably a pipe dream.
 
I don't know what the chances of landing Lester are, but this is interesting to say the least. This tells me that Schuerholz, Hart, and company have some sort of plan. We may not know what it is or understand it, but things are at work here, whether Lester signs or not. As has been said by me and others, this is going to be an interesting offseason. Just grab some popcorn and watch it unfold.

If Lester does come to Atlanta, I do think the idea of placing Minor in a package along with either B.J. or Gattis is very valid. Especially in a deal with B.J. because, frankly, with his contract and lack of production the last two years, putting Minor in a deal would make it a bit more intriguing to another team. If Lester signs and Minor is in a deal, here's what your looking at in a potential rotation:

Jon Lester

Julio Teheran

Alex Wood

Shelby Miller

David Hale

That's a rather nice rotation, I'd say.

Let me throw this out there as well: One of the big complaints is that the Atlanta Braves last year lacked leadership. Lester would fill that void.

Again, who knows what the chances of this happening are. But, the fact that a meeting is taking place is significant in of itself. We just need to see what happens.

With the wheels rolling now and with 3+ moves likely ahead, it is going to be fun watch what happens.
 
Don't get this. I'm not big on having a veteran presence. If you are not trying to win, then see what Hale can give you over a season. I thought he looked solid for a 5 starter when he has pitched.

Sims and the kid from the JHey trade are likely ready in 2017.......at least one of them. Why not do a 1 year deal on a guy trying to re-establish value if you have to fill that 5th starter with a guy over 30?

20 million a year to a pitcher over 30 when you don't think you'll win for at least the first year...?
 
THe Heyward fans do not want to hear this.

Most of us are ultimately fine with trading Heyward, just not in November when there isn't a decent outfielder available to compete with the trade. If this exact trade happened in January or late December, I would be fine with it.
 
What another dumb idea to go with the rest of the ideas from the good old boys club
 
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
#Braves will meet with Jon Lester, and I'm told it's legit, w/ strong mutual interest. Could fit ATL
 
Haven't had time to read the thread so I apologize for repeating anything.

Maybe Lester would be willing to take a pay cut to pitch near his home, though I'm not sure why he'd sell himself short.

The only way this makes any sense is if we're going to use Minor to trade BJ where we can get some young hitting back.

Otherwise, a starter on the wrong side of 30 for a rebuild? Don't get it at all.

I do know you can win with great pitching and defense and so-so offense. You can't win with great pitching and nonexistent offense along with poor defense.

Furthermore, if we're not rebuilding, I'm baffled at trading Walden unless we're signing Andrew Miller and banking on Shae Simmons back or Medlen-Beachy back to the pen, etc.
 
There are several ways this could get done, first of all, I believe they're trading Justin Upton and that free up another 14 and 5 million bucks, that coupled with money freed up yesterday in the Heyward trade and the fact you can backload heading into the stadium all makes its very possible. Also if he wants to play here badly enough he might take less money to do it.
 
Dave Schoenfield: Half-full, half-empty: Jon Lester

Excerpts from a good piece:

"In Edes' story, he mentions a 221-page portfolio that's Lester agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, have prepared. One item in there compares Lester's record through age 30 to other great left-handers of the past. It's true that many of the game’s best lefties had more value in their 30s than in their 20s, including guys such as Carl Hubbell, Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson. Recent lefties or current lefties such as Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle also remained successful well into their late 30s. "

...

"The other reason to bet on Lester is this guy is one of the most durable starters in the game. He's made 30-plus starts seven seasons in a row and has topped 200 innings in six of those seven years. Lester had non-Hodgkin lymphoma in his rookie season but he's never had any issues with his arm. He's also been terrific in the postseason in his career, with a 2.57 ERA in 84 innings. He's pitched in big games and won big games, something that general managers and managers like to have on their staff. "

...

"Anyway, Lester was a better pitcher in 2014; but in 2012-2013, he went 24-22 with a 4.28 ERA. There's always the risk you're getting that pitcher instead of the 2014 version. Even including 2014, over the past three seasons among pitchers with at least 500 innings, he ranks 31st in ERA, 29th in WAR, 23rd in strikeout rate and 19th in FIP. He's good, but he's really been more of a No. 2 starter in his career than a No. 1. At that estimated AAV of $23 million, he'd be priced right below Clayton Kershaw ($30.7 million), Justin Verlander ($25.7 million) and Felix Hernandez ($25.0). Is Lester really on that top tier of starters? He's received Cy Young votes just twice in his career."

...

"There's also this. Lester's fastball velocity has slowly declined through the years:

2009: 93.5 mph
2010: 93.0 mph
2011: 92.7 mph
2012: 92.5 mph
2013: 92.6 mph
2014: 91.7 mph "
 
Seems awfully hard to sell a 31-year-old ace on having to pitch with no offense behind him and as part of at least a partial rebuild when he could make more money and pitch for a contender in 2015-16.
 
This just doesn't make sense unless he takes a discount. You absolutely can't sign a 30 year old pitcher to a long big contract.
 
So, if they trade JUp then the only offense we have is Freeman and Gattis (when he doesn't get hit by a butterfly and go on the DL)....yikes

BJ? LMAO
CJ? maybe he regains form from 2 years ago but doubtful
Simba? Great defense, anemic bat
Gosselin? Makes contact but won't matter because no one will be on base in front of him
Bethancourt? nope

Oh wait, we have Terdoslavich! WOOT - World Series here we come
 
Back
Top