Braves: OF of both extremes?

Southcack77 said:
Or that he isn't immediately concerned with defense as an immediate priority anyway. They get more credit for trying to contend with showy offense than they would with defensive metric moves that also would not actually make them a contender.

I agree with the decision they made to trade Simmons. I don't know if they got the best package back, but if Newcomb and/or Blair actually do hit, it will be fine I suppose.
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Blair is from one of the DBacks trades. I think they sold low on Simmons. And part of that belief is I feel they underestimated his actual value on defense. This is my opinion.
 
Honestly, I would just as soon give the job to Micah Johnson. The blessing of being a bad team is that you can afford to take chances with players with loud tools and hope that you strike gold with one of them.
 
thewupk said:
Blair is from one of the DBacks trades. I think they sold low on Simmons. And part of that belief is I feel they underestimated his actual value on defense. This is my opinion.
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defensive metrics underestimated Simmons value.. nothing on the planet could quantify his impact. Newk could become a lock down ace and I am not sure I would still be happy with that trade. Simmons is a once in a generational type player... you don't trade that!!!
 
thewupk said:
I think the real issue is that Coppy doesn't believe in the publicly available defensive stats.
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Well that is a pretty big issue. This new statcast data definitively shows which OFers are good/bad at converting fly balls into outs. If Genius isn't using that information to build his roster the Braves are at a sever disadvantage.
 
chop2chip said:
I don't usually have my ears to the ground on the defensive replacement OF market, so feel free to bump this thread at the end of spring training cuts and I'll take my pick of the myriad of fast players that are literally available every single year.
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Yeah...I was talking about a 4th OFer that could produce in a semi-platoon role over 300+ PAs, not a guy who wasn't good enough to be the 25th man on another team's bench.

I guess you could call your idea a valid argument though. So at least there's improvement on that front.
 
One of Micah Johnson/Jace/Bonifactio/D'Arnaud or a player not yet on the team is likely to serve as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner for Kemp.
 
thewupk said:
Blair is from one of the DBacks trades. I think they sold low on Simmons. And part of that belief is I feel they underestimated his actual value on defense. This is my opinion.
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Yes, dammit. Chris Ellis. I even looked it up, but I guess that tells you what I subconsciously must think of Blair's chances.

Maybe they should have gotten a better return out of Simmons. I just don't fault trading him in their particular situation.

I tend to think defense value is overrated by the measurements and I have trouble taking the ones that fluctuate drastically year to year very seriously. But defense is not unimportant by any stretch. Simmons was really fun to watch and he'd be a great player to add to a contending team full of offense, but I'm not sure what his purpose was going to be in Atlanta. Hopefully, they will end up getting something out of him.
 
Southcack77 said:
Yes, dammit. Chris Ellis. I even looked it up, but I guess that tells you what I subconsciously must think of Blair's chances.

Maybe they should have gotten a better return out of Simmons. I just don't fault trading him in their particular situation.

I tend to think defense value is overrated by the measurements and I have trouble taking the ones that fluctuate drastically year to year very seriously. But defense is not unimportant by any stretch. Simmons was really fun to watch and he'd be a great player to add to a contending team full of offense, but I'm not sure what his purpose was going to be in Atlanta. Hopefully, they will end up getting something out of him.
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Runs saved can fluctuate in a given year due to many reasons just like offensive runs. A couple if the chances and the overall small sample size a defender has in a given year compared to being on offense. It's usually a third of a full offensive season.

And Simmons would of been here to help win games.
 
thewupk said:
Runs saved can fluctuate in a given year due to many reasons just like offensive runs. A couple if the chances and the overall small sample size a defender has in a given year compared to being on offense. It's usually a third of a full offensive season.

And Simmons would of been here to help win games.
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Never understood how people think defensive contributions should be more consistent on a year to year basis than offensive contributions.
 
Enscheff said:
Yeah...I was talking about a 4th OFer that could produce in a semi-platoon role over 300+ PAs, not a guy who wasn't good enough to be the 25th man on another team's bench.

I guess you could call your idea a valid argument though. So at least there's improvement on that front.
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This isn't what you said...

So knowing this, where are the defensive replacements for Kemp and Markakis?
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Platoon outfielders =/= late inning defensive replacement OF
 
Enscheff said:
Never understood how people think defensive contributions should be more consistent on a year to year basis than offensive contributions.
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Well there's certainly less randomness in a defensive play than an offensive play, i.e., a defensive player doesn't have to worry about the offensive player knocking the ball out of his glove the same way an offensive player has to worry about (1) who is pitching and (2) if the defender catches his line drives.

I'm also not stating that defense can't vary year to year, but logically I would presume it's much more consistent than offense.
 
chop2chip said:
Well there's certainly less randomness in a defensive play than an offensive play, i.e., a defensive player doesn't have to worry about the offensive player knocking the ball out of his glove the same way an offensive player has to worry about (1) who is pitching and (2) if the defender catches his line drives.

I'm also not stating that defense can't vary year to year, but logically I would presume it's much more consistent than offense.
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Think of how small a sample size is for hitters a 1/3 of the season. That's a whole year for a defender. Chances a player has can vary from year to year just as the level of play at that position can vary from year to year. Also actual defensive ability comes and goes a lot quicker than offensive ability in most cases.
 
thewupk said:
Think of how small a sample size is for hitters a 1/3 of the season. That's a whole year for a defender. Chances a player has can vary from year to year just as the level of play at that position can vary from year to year. Also actual defensive ability comes and goes a lot quicker than offensive ability in most cases.
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And a lot of defensive plays are routine. So the number of defensive opportunities that separate a good defender from a bad one are quite small.
 
nsacpi said:
And a lot of defensive plays are routine. So the number of defensive opportunities that separate a good defender from a bad one are quite small.
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Similar to how just 1 hit a week can separate you from being an average or great hitter. The margins are really small when you look at it that way.
 
chop2chip said:
This isn't what you said...

Platoon outfielders =/= late inning defensive replacement OF
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Yes, you are right. This one particular post I only mentioned defensive replacement.

I suppose the other 100 posts I made over the last few months claiming the Braves need a competent RHed 4th OFer don't count.
 
thewupk said:
Think of how small a sample size is for hitters a 1/3 of the season. That's a whole year for a defender. Chances a player has can vary from year to year just as the level of play at that position can vary from year to year. Also actual defensive ability comes and goes a lot quicker than offensive ability in most cases.
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I agree in the aggregate, but if you distill it down to a single play, defense is less random then offense.

Circling back to your original point - I agree with your overall premise, but I think it's fine to reliability of defensive metrics, while acknowledging their value. I refer defensive metrics all the time and accept them at face value for the most part, but there's certainly limited cases where I don't think they match reality.
 
Enscheff said:
Yes, you are right. This one particular post I only mentioned defensive replacement.

I suppose the other 100 posts I made over the last few months claiming the Braves need a competent RHed 4th OFer don't count.
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I'm sorry I answered a question that you posed in the opening post. Next time I'll make sure I research your 3,815 posts before I respond.
 
chop2chip said:
I agree in the aggregate, but if you distill it down to a single play, defense is less random then offense.

Circling back to your original point - I agree with your overall premise, but I think it's fine to reliability of defensive metrics, while acknowledging their value. I refer defensive metrics all the time and accept them at face value for the most part, but there's certainly limited cases where I don't think they match reality.
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I'm sure that's the case in some situations. Hopefully Statcast starts to eliminate that noise.
 
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