Braves: OF of both extremes?

thewupk said:
Not at all. But looking at some of the moves recently makes me raise my eyebrow about it. Mainly Kemp and Simmons.
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Not just that but Coppy was among Chris Johnson's biggest supporters at the time we extended him. He saw no issue with CJ's terrible defense.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
defensive metrics underestimated Simmons value.. nothing on the planet could quantify his impact. Newk could become a lock down ace and I am not sure I would still be happy with that trade. Simmons is a once in a generational type player... you don't trade that!!!
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Exactly and if Newcomb becomes a bust or even just a bullpen arm we will have nothing for giving Simmons away. This is a lot more likely to happen than him becoming a top line starter too. You don't gamble with a once in a generation talent that way. It's stupid.
 
Enscheff said:
FG just did some work with the OF defensiuve numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-play-with-new-defensive-data/

The data shows Inciarte as one of the Top 10 OFers defensively over the last 2 seasons (no surprise), while both Kemp and Markakis are Bottom 5 in total plays not made. Kemp is quite possibly the worst defensive OFer currently in the game (Hanley and Trumbo won't be given as many chances to hurt the team in the OF), while Markakis is merely bad (not Bottom 10 in Plays/1200) but gets a lot of innings out there to rack up missed plays.

So knowing this, where are the defensive replacements for Kemp and Markakis? How is a genius GM planning to let these butchers hurt the team defensively to such a huge extent? Why are the Braves going with a 3 man bench with no good OF defender when they have 2 of the worst OF defenders in MLB in everyday roles?

What in the HELL is the Genius doing? Why weren't any of the many RHed 4th OF types brought in to fill this glaring need?
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Because spring training isn't over yet. How the HELL did you not know that?
 
rico43 said:
Because spring training isn't over yet. How the HELL did you not know that?
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Spring training isn't going to tell us anything else about Boni we don't already know. And if you're thinking maybe they plan to pick up an out of options CFer to back-up, look at MLBTR lists and show me one there that might get waived as I don't see any. Pagan is a 4th outfield option, though limited to LF mainly, but Braves seem only interested in him if he comes very cheap. So if not Boni or Pagan only other serious option is to make a trade before the season starts. Time will tell if they do so or if they just go with Boni.
 
Braves1976 said:
Spring training isn't going to tell us anything else about Boni we don't already know. And if you're thinking maybe they plan to pick up an out of options CFer to back-up, look at MLBTR lists and show me one there that might get waived as I don't see any. Pagan is a 4th outfield option, though limited to LF mainly, but Braves seem only interested in him if he comes very cheap. So if not Boni or Pagan only other serious option is to make a trade before the season starts. Time will tell if they do so or if they just go with Boni.
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I think he's talking about other teams' rosters. Lot of guys might be moving during cut-downs.
 
I mean, the Braves should only be interested in Pagan if he comes cheap. Why, again, are we so caught up on who the 4th OF is this year? I get that neither Kemp or Markakis are great options, but that's sort of exactly why it doesn't matter all that much who the 4th OF is. Next year, sure.
 
thewupk said:
Think of how small a sample size is for hitters a 1/3 of the season. That's a whole year for a defender. Chances a player has can vary from year to year just as the level of play at that position can vary from year to year. Also actual defensive ability comes and goes a lot quicker than offensive ability in most cases.
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I feel like what you are saying here is that sample size for defensive numbers makes the stats somewhat unreliable year to year.
 
nsacpi said:
And a lot of defensive plays are routine. So the number of defensive opportunities that separate a good defender from a bad one are quite small.
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if the number of opportunities separating good defenders from bad are relatively small, is defense really equally as valuable as offense?
 
Braves1976 said:
Not just that but Coppy was among Chris Johnson's biggest supporters at the time we extended him. He saw no issue with CJ's terrible defense.
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That extension looked terrible from the beginning. From the offensive side even more than defense. Paying him for good fortune essentially.

Also hated Uggla, which worked out even worse than I had thought.
 
Southcack77 said:
if the number of opportunities separating good defenders from bad are relatively small, is defense really equally as valuable as offense?
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The answer is no. Think about it this way. Run creation and run prevention are equally important. But a big chunk of run prevention is pitching. The rest is defense. Defense is only a fraction of run prevention.
 
Southcack77 said:
if the number of opportunities separating good defenders from bad are relatively small, is defense really equally as valuable as offense?
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Depends on what you mean. There is more opportunity for impact on the offensive side, I don't think there's any question about that. But a single player can absolutely be as, or more, valuable on defense than he is on offense. Simmons, for example. Now, if Simmons were as good a hitter as he is a defensive player, would his offensive value be equal to his defensive value? No, his offensive value would definitely surpass his defensive value. The range of offensive values is greater than the range of defensive values. But a player providing 2 wins on defense is the same as a player providing 2 wins on offense.
 
Southcack77 said:
I feel like what you are saying here is that sample size for defensive numbers makes the stats somewhat unreliable year to year.
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It doesn't change what has happened though. Using these to predict future performance is another thing all together. Player X having a great defensive year doesn't tell us much other than he did really well that year. Player X having several great defensive years in a row suggests he really is a great defender.
 
Southcack77 said:
if the number of opportunities separating good defenders from bad are relatively small, is defense really equally as valuable as offense?
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It depends what you are trying to say. A run saved on defense is equal to a run created on offense. That is true. However when in the context of WAR an excellent defender (Heyward, Simmons, etc) will save you about 20 runs a year. An excellent hitter will create you 60 runs a year.

An excellent hitter with avg defense will always be more valuable than an excellent defender who is an avg hitter.
 
So a defensive metric question.

how does some of the analytics take into consideration a play like this.

sinking liner to RF..

Player A dives for the ball and it turns into a double/Triple
Player B plays on bounce and it is a single.
 
thewupk said:
It doesn't change what has happened though. Using these to predict future performance is another thing all together. Player X having a great defensive year doesn't tell us much other than he did really well that year. Player X having several great defensive years in a row suggests he really is a great defender.
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With certain obvious exceptions such as injury or age decline, defensive ability ought to be a fairly consistent skill set.

I can see how a small sample size might make measuring that ability difficult and lead to up and down numbers that are not particularly predictive. And obviously the stat can only measure according to the methodology that goes into it.

But if the metric itself is plagued by sample sized issues and is not predictive there is some question as to how useful a measurement it is and how much it should be weighted in the overall computation of a player's value.
 
thewupk said:
It depends what you are trying to say. A run saved on defense is equal to a run created on offense. That is true. However when in the context of WAR an excellent defender (Heyward, Simmons, etc) will save you about 20 runs a year. An excellent hitter will create you 60 runs a year.

An excellent hitter with avg defense will always be more valuable than an excellent defender who is an avg hitter.
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So let's say you have an excellent defender who saves 20 runs and a excellent hitter that creates 60 runs. What is his WAR and how much of it is offense/defense comparatively?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So a defensive metric question.

how does some of the analytics take into consideration a play like this.

sinking liner to RF..

Player A dives for the ball and it turns into a double/Triple

Player B plays on bounce and it is a single.
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Don't have the exact math on this but this is roughly what happens. It depends what normally happens on that play. If it's generally a play that is a single then player B gets will get no positive or negative effect on his defensive metrics. It will be in the bucket of a long list of plays that are considered routine. Given that, if player A risks it and essentially tuns a single into a double or triple then he is seen as costing his team a single or double depending on if the play is a double or triple.

There is a run equivalency to what a single or double normally produce in runs on a given year. And those are added up to determine how many runs you either save or cost the team.

Now that is a basic idea of it. The math gets harder when you have a play for example that is an out like 70% of the time. Average players have a harder time making that but good defenders don't etc.
 
Southcack77 said:
With certain obvious exceptions such as injury or age decline, defensive ability ought to be a fairly consistent skill set.

I can see how a small sample size might make measuring that ability difficult and lead to up and down numbers that are not particularly predictive. And obviously the stat can only measure according to the methodology that goes into it.

But if the metric itself is plagued by sample sized issues and is not predictive there is some question as to how useful a measurement it is and how much it should be weighted in the overall computation of a player's value.
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WAR shouldn't be used as a predictive measure though. It's about what actually happens on the field. You can look at trends in these models to give you a better idea of what might happen in the future.

And also you have to keep in mind these stats are comparing your play to that of what the rest of the league is doing. So you could theoretically play at the same ability but your stats will be worse if the play around the league has improved as a whole.
 
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