Braves offseason outlook from MLBTR

Slight change to discussion. Dierkes in his yesterday chat answered a question that I suspect came from one of our members. Question being: Gattis and his 1 year of experience really going to be the man behind the plate?? Dierkes responded with Ruiz or Pierzynski being a fit in his opinion.

Now I happen to agree with Pierzynski but not Ruiz. But, if the Braves do sign another catcher, and I can see a LH signing, what does that mean for Gattis if it is an upper echelon FA catcher who is signed?

I assume Laird is around as well and I have seen the value in having 3 catchers but does Gattis become a part time player or do the Braves trade Upton and continue the LF experiment on a part time basis in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Upton would go a long way in getting a TOR guy like Scherzer or others not named Price.
 
Dalyn said:
Like you just said in the above post, we have no idea what we are going to get from Beachy. In my opinion, he should start the season in the bullpen. Treat him like we did Medlen not long ago.

Minor - Had a great year and barely made 200 innings. Expect about the same.

Teheran - Just pitched more than any other point in his career. Hope he stays healthy. Can't count on him getting closer than three or four starts below 200 innings.

Medlen - Had a good year and came within a start of 200 innings. Highest of his career by a long shot. Health is a concern. Would be thrilled with more of the same from him.

Beachy - Already addressed this. Shouldn't even make the rotation unless there is an emergency. Let him replace the first starter to go down. Anything to reduce his innings.

Wood - Fine #5, but with this rotation could very well be forced to #3 for the second half. Not at all ready for that.

At the very least, we need Hudson. Otherwise, the bullpen is going to be a mess in September and who knows who will be in the rotation.
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At the very least Hale should be able to be in the conversation of backups to the backup SPs.
 
Tapate50 said:
At the very least Hale should be able to be in the conversation of backups to the backup SPs.
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And Cody Martin and Northcraft and Schlosser and Gilmartin. These aren't guys that you want at the top of the rotation but who has TOR starters just waiting in AAA?
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Slight change to discussion. Dierkes in his yesterday chat answered a question that I suspect came from one of our members. Question being: Gattis and his 1 year of experience really going to be the man behind the plate?? Dierkes responded with Ruiz or Pierzynski being a fit in his opinion.

Now I happen to agree with Pierzynski but not Ruiz. But, if the Braves do sign another catcher, and I can see a LH signing, what does that mean for Gattis if it is an upper echelon FA catcher who is signed?

I assume Laird is around as well and I have seen the value in having 3 catchers but does Gattis become a part time player or do the Braves trade Upton and continue the LF experiment on a part time basis in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Upton would go a long way in getting a TOR guy like Scherzer or others not named Price.
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I think we are better off with Gattis reprising his role from last year as super sub. It would give us a much better bench, with some real power to bring in as a late inning pinch hitter and also a useful backup in case of injuries in the outfield and first. We can find ways to get him 400 ABs in that role.

It is also worth keeping in mind that catcher is a position where depth is very important. All three of Laird, McCann and Gattis spent time on the DL last year. Injuries and wear and tear are a bigger factor there than anywhere else. Even looking at the guys in the minors, we see Gattis missing substantial time in 2012, and Bethancourt missing time in 2013 (hamstring) and 2012 (broken thumb).

I know it is a minority view around here, but I would make a serious attempt to bring back McCann. I'd go up to 4 guaranteed years at 15M/year on him. If he wants more, then we move on.
 
Knucksie said:
Everybody's anticipating McCann to get his FA payout. Uggla hasn't packed his bags yet. Hudson is currently in limbo. Notice a void of veteran leadership? Don't think that this factor isn't taken into consideration, while constructing a roster.
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Good point. I think it is unlikely that the front office doubles up on youth. I think they will make a serious attempt to bring both McCann and Hudson back.
 
nsacpi said:
I think we are better off with Gattis reprising his role from last year as super sub. It would give us a much better bench, with some real power to bring in as a late inning pinch hitter and also a useful backup in case of injuries in the outfield and first. We can find ways to get him 400 ABs in that role.

It is also worth keeping in mind that catcher is a position where depth is very important. All three of Laird, McCann and Gattis spent time on the DL last year. Injuries and wear and tear are a bigger factor there than anywhere else. Even looking at the guys in the minors, we see Gattis missing substantial time in 2012, and Bethancourt missing time in 2013 (hamstring) and 2012 (broken thumb).

I know it is a minority view around here, but I would make a serious attempt to bring back McCann. I'd go up to 4 guaranteed years at 15M/year on him. If he wants more, then we move on.
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Everyone and everywhere it seems a foregone conclusion that Mac is gone to the AL but for the sake of discussion: If McCann were to resign at what would be a team friendly deal as you suggest, then which of Freeman, Heyward or Kimbrel are you willing to move on since you probably wont be able to afford even bidding for the services of at least one of them. Probably should put Medlen in that bunch too but I dont see him as being crucial to the future.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Everyone and everywhere it seems a foregone conclusion that Mac is gone to the AL but for the sake of discussion: If McCann were to resign at what would be a team friendly deal as you suggest, then which of Freeman, Heyward or Kimbrel are you willing to move on since you probably wont be able to afford even bidding for the services of at least one of them. Probably should put Medlen in that bunch too but I dont see him as being crucial to the future.
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I think the priorities have to be the hitters. Off-load the pitchers as necessary to stay within budget. I don't think it is an issue for 2014, but by 2015 or 2016 we will have to make some tough choices on the pitchers.

Here is a cut and paste of what I had to say about 2014 payroll from another thread:

Payroll was in the $90-95M range this year. With the new national TV revenues (which bring in an extra $28M per year per team) it will be probably be around $110M in 2014.

Here is what the numbers might look like next year. I present a scenario without too much change and without re-signing McCann. It is meant to be a point of departure for discussion.

Rotation: Minor (2.5M, looks like he'll be a Super 2), Medlen (4M), Hudson (6M), Beachy (1M), Teheran (0.5M). Total Rotation (14M)

Pen: Kimbrel (6.5), Walden (1.5), Carpenter (0.5), Avilan (0.5), Wood (0.5), Varvaro (0.5), Gearrin (0.5). Total Pen (10.5M)

Starters: BJ (14.2), Justin (14.3), Heyward (5), Freeman (3.8), Uggla (13.2), Lord BABIP (4.5), Simmons (0.5), Gattis (0.5) Total (56M)

Bench: Laird (1.5), Reed (1.6), Pena (0.9), Schafer (1.0), Pastornicky (0.5) Total Bench (5.5M)

Total: 86M

I'm also going to assume they bring back Venters and EOF and those two guys start the season on the DL at a combined cost of 4M.

This makes for a Grand Total of 90M.

The main takeaway from this exercise is that Wren will have about $20M of flexibility (if you are willing to share my assumption of a $110M budget). I think he'll keep about 5M in reserve for mid-season moves. So about 15M this off-season to play with. Could be used to re-sign McCann or make other moves.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I think its going to be a very quiet offseason this year. I think they unload Uggla to someone who eats 1-3 million a year of his contract. They re-sign Hudson and re-sign O'flaherty on an incentive laden deal. Tender Venters a contract. They pretend to be in the running for McCann but never really offer him a competitive offer. Add a bench bat and bring in some pitchers off the scrap heap that we think we can turn around ala Carpenter/O'Flaherty. Then we go into spring training with La Stella/Pastornicky/Pena competing for the 2B job. Hopefully we get a some long term extensions for our young players done too. Probably flirt with trading for Price but dont offer anything crazy.
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For my money any offseason that involves trading Uggla does not qualify as "very quiet". If we can avoid simply releasing him outright it is a win.

After describing to someone how bad he really was this year the response was "and you think you can trade him?.
 
nsacpi said:
Good point. I think it is unlikely that the front office doubles up on youth. I think they will make a serious attempt to bring both McCann and Hudson back.
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Us old timers remember the early 90's team. The rotation already had Glavine, Smoltz, Avery and some combination of Lilliquist, Pete Smith and Mercker. Even at the time, it was my contention that it was a blunder to trade Zane Smith (who later proved quite useful to the Pirates). To fill the void of of another LF and staff vet, Charlie Liebrandt was brought over from KC. (Great trivia question: trade Cox made with Schuerholz!)

It's a similar scenario here, but doubt that there are 2 future HOFers in the bunch. Even if no "ace" is acquired, they're going to need some stability. A higher end innings eater and a mentor would work. Wren tried to get Kyle Lohse at the deadline. The price might come down with Milwaukee wanting to unload salary, know that they're going to suck. He's got playoff experience, which is a valuable commodity for a team trying to get to the next level.
 
nsacpi said:
I think the priorities have to be the hitters. Off-load the pitchers as necessary to stay within budget. I don't think it is an issue for 2014, but by 2015 or 2016 we will have to make some tough choices on the pitchers.

Here is a cut and paste of what I had to say about 2014 payroll from another thread:

Payroll was in the $90-95M range this year. With the new national TV revenues (which bring in an extra $28M per year per team) it will be probably be around $110M in 2014.

Here is what the numbers might look like next year. I present a scenario without too much change and without re-signing McCann. It is meant to be a point of departure for discussion.

Rotation: Minor (2.5M, looks like he'll be a Super 2), Medlen (4M), Hudson (6M), Beachy (1M), Teheran (0.5M). Total Rotation (14M)

Pen: Kimbrel (6.5), Walden (1.5), Carpenter (0.5), Avilan (0.5), Wood (0.5), Varvaro (0.5), Gearrin (0.5). Total Pen (10.5M)

Starters: BJ (14.2), Justin (14.3), Heyward (5), Freeman (3.8), Uggla (13.2), Lord BABIP (4.5), Simmons (0.5), Gattis (0.5) Total (56M)

Bench: Laird (1.5), Reed (1.6), Pena (0.9), Schafer (1.0), Pastornicky (0.5) Total Bench (5.5M)

Total: 86M

I'm also going to assume they bring back Venters and EOF and those two guys start the season on the DL at a combined cost of 4M.

This makes for a Grand Total of 90M.

The main takeaway from this exercise is that Wren will have about $20M of flexibility (if you are willing to share my assumption of a $110M budget). I think he'll keep about 5M in reserve for mid-season moves. So about 15M this off-season to play with. Could be used to re-sign McCann or make other moves.
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Biggest fallacy I see with your treatise is you have almost exactly the same roster as last years opening day less McCann (and you are on a mission to get him back) and Beachy. That has just never happened in the history of the Braves. Every year it is 6-10 new faces in an attempt to improve the team.
 
I don't think Uggla will be on the 2014 team. What I did was an exercise to illustrate the payroll issues. We will have to pay most of Uggla's salary, so might as well include him for now. Anything we save from moving him will be gravy.

There will be some turnover. Wood and Carpenter were not on the 2013 opening day roster. Probably La Stella will be on there rather than Uggla.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think Uggla will be on the 2014 team. What I did was an exercise to illustrate the payroll issues. We will have to pay most of Uggla's salary, so might as well include him for now. Anything we save from moving him will be gravy.

There will be some turnover. Wood and Carpenter were not on the 2013 opening day roster. Probably La Stella will be on there rather than Uggla.
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OK Gotcha
 
nsacpi said:
I think we are better off with Gattis reprising his role from last year as super sub. It would give us a much better bench, with some real power to bring in as a late inning pinch hitter and also a useful backup in case of injuries in the outfield and first. We can find ways to get him 400 ABs in that role.

It is also worth keeping in mind that catcher is a position where depth is very important. All three of Laird, McCann and Gattis spent time on the DL last year. Injuries and wear and tear are a bigger factor there than anywhere else. Even looking at the guys in the minors, we see Gattis missing substantial time in 2012, and Bethancourt missing time in 2013 (hamstring) and 2012 (broken thumb).

I know it is a minority view around here, but I would make a serious attempt to bring back McCann. I'd go up to 4 guaranteed years at 15M/year on him. If he wants more, then we move on.
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If they let Mac walk they did it for one reason, and one reason only: to let Gattis be the starter behind the plate.

If they decide to let Gattis start behind the plate they did it for one reason: to free up money to spend it elsewhere.

Where is that money going to go? The logical answer is 2B and the rotation.

I expect Wren to fix 2B and try to add Hudson plus someone else significant to the rotation. Some of the younger parts of the current starting depth will almost certainly be used to fix 2B and/or add to the rotation.

Gattis and Laird have shown without a shadow of a doubt they can handle the catching duties next year. If one of them goes down I think CB showed enough that he can be relied on to fill in for a while. I just don't see Wren using any money at C if they let Mac walk, and the only way I see Mac staying is if Gattis is traded.
 
Anyone know or seen any discourse on Markakis situation in Baltimore. Wonder if they would consider Uggla for Markakis. They have dire need at 2nd and would shed big contract if doable. have to balance the money Im sure.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Anyone know or seen any discourse on Markakis situation in Baltimore. Wonder if they would consider Uggla for Markakis. They have dire need at 2nd and would shed big contract if doable. have to balance the money Im sure.
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Do we really have a spot for Markakis though? Obviously he would be an upgrade over BJ Upton (by letting Heyward play center with Markakis in right), but I don't see the Braves giving up on BJ after one year into his deal..
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Anyone know or seen any discourse on Markakis situation in Baltimore. Wonder if they would consider Uggla for Markakis. They have dire need at 2nd and would shed big contract if doable. have to balance the money Im sure.
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Markakis is owed $15M next year and $17.5M for 2015 with a $2M buyout. That's a minimum owed of $17M. Uggla is owed $26M over 2014/2015.

Markakis could serve as a very expensive LHed option off the bench, so this might be a case where swapping bad contracts might work out.
 
Enscheff said:
Markakis is owed $15M next year and $17.5M for 2015 with a $2M buyout. That's a minimum owed of $17M. Uggla is owed $26M over 2014/2015.

Markakis could serve as a very expensive LHed option off the bench, so this might be a case where swapping bad contracts might work out.
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I seem to recall reading that Os were not enamored with Markakis as a corner OFer in that he hasnt progressed up to expectations. They do have Machado at 2nd but he may have to start the season on DL. They want young controllable pitching according to todays MLBTradeRumors. Would depend on how much of Uggla they would swallow IMO.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
I seem to recall reading that Os were not enamored with Markakis as a corner OFer in that he hasnt progressed up to expectations. They do have Machado at 2nd but he may have to start the season on DL. They want young controllable pitching according to todays MLBTradeRumors. Would depend on how much of Uggla they would swallow IMO.
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Yeah it's rumored the O's are trying to upgrade their RF spot and want to get rid of Markakis. The only problem is while Markakis is a solid player his contract was given on potential(have those ever worked?see:BJ Upton) and made 15.35 Mil. while having a stat line of .271/10/59 in over 600 AB's. You have to wonder what happened to Markakis? As a 23 year old the guy hit .300/23/112 and followed up the next year with an OPS of pretty much .900 and a WAR of 7.1. He is signed through next year for 15MM with a team option in 2015 where he is slated to earn 17.5MM but the team can buy him out for 2MM which will inevitably happen. I mean the guy has a ton of protection in the line up with the likes of Davis,Jones, and machado which is one hell of a 3-4-5 combination. Lots of red flags on Markakis.
 
nsacpi said:
I think there were other reasons that Loe, Garcia and Hale got late season starts. Maholm had issues with his elbow and was not pitching well. Beachy was shut down. Hudson was out. Wood was judged to have run out of gas.
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We weren't starting any of those pitchers in a close race and the playoffs on the line. You can bet on that. Maholm was pitching like a 4 starter should (even though he was # 5). And regardless, he was still a better option every 5th day than Garcia or Loe at the time. Wood was only put in the BP AFTER we clinched a playoff spot. So clearly we were going to keep running him out in a closer race.
 
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