Braves‘ offseason quietly criticized throughout the industry

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"The Braves‘ offseason has been quietly criticized throughout the industry, with other teams wondering about Atlanta’s signing of Nick Markakis and about its trades, including getting injured pitching prospect Max Fried as the co-headliner (along with Mallex Smith) in the Justin Upton deal." Sources: MLBTR highlighting a Ken Rosenthal article, Braves' rebuild will hinge on success of young pitchers.
 
Ken Rosenthal starts out by stating: "It has become a common refrain among rival executives this offseason: “I love John Hart, but . . .” But I don’t like his offseason." I also found of interest this about Fried, the headliner in the Justin Upton trade: "some execs note that he [Fried] was less than dominant even before he got hurt while pitching in the Midwest League in 2013."

The article also noted Graham's situation and losing him to the Twins: "Risk, and more risk -- and yet the Braves failed to protect righty J.R. Graham, a former top prospect who has dealt with shoulder trouble the past two seasons, and lost him to the Twins in the Rule 5 draft."
 
Obviously we won't be able to fully judge the prospects Hart has acquired this offseason for at least 3-5 years, but anytime you move proven commodities for unproven ones there is an inherent risk. I think the Braves would be fortunate if one or two of the young talents they have traded for end up contributing impactfully on the Major League level. We can take some consolation in the fact that the FO seems to have gone after guys they know (see the hiring of the San Diego scout prior to the Upton trade and the addition of Blakeley from the NYY, who undoubtedly contributed his opinion to the Banuelos deal) and guys that fit a small ball type mold. This isn't just a talent grab, but a concerted effort to build a specific type of club.

As I've stated before, I'm particularly impressed with some of the more unheralded moves Hart has made such as Winkler, Johnson, and Callaspo. If he keeps snagging high-risk/high-reward talent at bargain basement costs the team is bound to reap dividends at some point in some way.

The Markakis deal is definitely a head scratcher. I tend to believe that the move was made to placate the fanbase moreso than anything else, and definitely wish the money would've been saved or spent elsewhere.

The next two seasons will be fascinating to watch unfold. I fully expect there to be a continuous cavalcade of wheeling and dealing, as well as significant spending. To us baseball junkies it may not be as satisfying as a dynamic nine and a loaded pitching staff, but it will certainly keep us occupied.
 
I think some of the moves we made certainly leave us open for criticism.

I think I hate the Markakis signing way less than most, but it still seems like an odd move for a team eyeing the future. Maybe after his surgery he regains his 20 Hr power, we trade him for another teams top ten prospect and Heart looks like a genius. At worst what I can see happening is we have a below average starting RFer for 2017 and 2018. I don't see him completely falling off due to his skill set so even at his worst I believe he will be playable.

I dislike letting Graham go as well.

The Upton trade does seem like we might have misplayed it. Having Padres insiders with us gives me hope that Smith and D.J. can improve their stock and either contribute to our team or in future trades. I'm not particularly concerned about Frieds numbers pre injury. SSS,the talent is there, only question is health.

The Heyward, Man-Ban, and LaStella(the draft pool bonus was a great under the radar move)traded I think are great though. The article questions Jenkins health but totally ignored Miller.

We are accumulating assets. We will continue to do so. We seem to be doing what the cubs did but with pitching. Some will contribute to the team, some will flame out, and a fair amount will be cannibalized for future trades. A potential Gattis, Minor, more bullpen trades and possibly Kimbrel deal with the already completed deal totally restocks us. Our farm had probably already improved from bottom 30 to closer to 20.
 
At the end of the day, I think the route was the way to go, the execution from the fans expectations weren't necessarily matching what Hart wanted to do. My only issue is the waiting or overvaluing what we wanted from Upton. For me, I would have been ecstatic to get that "Stud" and then an B+ prospect, but that's me. I do think that Fried is going to be good if healthy...Banuelos, I'm a huge fan despite the hype before his injury and then there are a few other assets like Miller (Never thought I'd see him in a Braves uniform) and I think Jenkins just has to be healthy.

There are quite a few "IF's." I don't know if some of that would have been exactly what I would do, but as mentioned, we're open to criticism until we get a read on what we really have.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I think some of the moves we made certainly leave us open for criticism.

I think I hate the Markakis signing way less than most, but it still seems like an odd move for a team eyeing the future. Maybe after his surgery he regains his 20 Hr power, we trade him for another teams top ten prospect and Heart looks like a genius. At worst what I can see happening is we have a below average starting RFer for 2017 and 2018. I don't see him completely falling off due to his skill set so even at his worst I believe he will be playable.

I dislike letting Graham go as well.

The Upton trade does seem like we might have misplayed it. Having Padres insiders with us gives me hope that Smith and D.J. can improve their stock and either contribute to our team or in future trades. I'm not particularly concerned about Frieds numbers pre injury. SSS,the talent is there, only question is health.

The Heyward, Man-Ban, and LaStella(the draft pool bonus was a great under the radar move)traded I think are great though. The article questions Jenkins health but totally ignored Miller.

We are accumulating assets. We will continue to do so. We seem to be doing what the cubs did but with pitching. Some will contribute to the team, some will flame out, and a fair amount will be cannibalized for future trades. A potential Gattis, Minor, more bullpen trades and possibly Kimbrel deal with the already completed deal totally restocks us. Our farm had probably already improved from bottom 30 to closer to 20.
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I didn't hate signing Markakis so much as I hated signing him for four years, and after hearing he needed surgery shortly after the signing I disliked the move even more. I agree with you on Graham, I would've protected him before others we protected personally. It is hard to argue we didn't misplay the Justin Upton trade when Hart basically admitted doing so to Jeff Schultz of the AJC. He pretty much said we misread the market, etc. So that being the case it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in this trade. Plus I agree with the criticism about Fried being the headliner, etc. But at the same time I have to hope he and/or at least one of the others in the deal make us look back on this trade as one that worked out for us.

Further, I hated trading Heyward rather than signing him long-term but I'm hoping Miller lives up to his upside and that Jenkins makes it as a solid starter. I was OK with the La Stella trade while the Man-Ban trade was my favorite trade this off-season.
 
I think I may be the only Braves fan that has really liked this entire offseason. The Braves trades one year of Upton and Heyward for multiple years of young good talent while saving a ton of money to go after big name FA before going into the new stadium in 2017. I'm one of the few that actually like the Markakis signing, he hits for a good average, walks, doesn't strikeout and plays good enough defense for RF. His production at the plate should be better than Heyward's so the only real difference is going to be the defense but those metrics are a bit overrated imo. Honestly if the Braves could trade for a guy like Ben Zobrist, put him in LF and leave Gattis at C this team could actually be highly competitive.

Lineup:

Markakis - RF(L)

Zobrist - LF(S)

Freeman - 1B(L)

Gattis - C(R)

Johnson(R)/Peterson(L) - 3B

Upton - CF(R)

Callaspo - 2B(S)

Simmons - SS(R)

Not the worst lineup ever but one that could be highly productive and score more runs.
 
DOB has already posted that Zobrist is not a guy the Braves have considered. Otherwise it's a good scenario. But Gattis' health issues are the elephant in the room; the Braves don't think he can physically hold up behind the plate. Can't say so because it would all but destroy much of his trade value.
 
I'm not sure we should take seriously any criticism from someone who think Mallex Smith was a co-headliner in the deal.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I'm not sure we should take seriously any criticism from someone who think Mallex Smith was a co-headliner in the deal.
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I think the comment reflects more the author's thoughts on Fried more than anything else. Even before the TJ, his performance was not overwhelming. We have to hope some of that reflects an underlying injury which ultimately led to the TJ.
 
Honestly, it's hard to really judge if Hart could have done better on these deals, because nobody on here has any idea about what type of value was being offered from other teams. What I do know is that if he had held onto both Upton and Heyward, went for it this season and fell short, that would have been a disaster, even with the comp picks.
 
NYCBrave said:
Honestly, it's hard to really judge if Hart could have done better on these deals, because nobody on here has any idea about what type of value was being offered from other teams. What I do know is that if he had held onto both Upton and Heyward, went for it this season and fell short, that would have been a disaster, even with the comp picks.
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Now THAT is a pretty good post.
 
The returns for Heyward and Upton were in the range of what I expected. Over the last 5 - 10 years, the return on high-salaried rentals traded in the offseason seems to have declined. I haven't seen any empirical evidence on this . . . just my sense. I do think Hart may have misread Justin's market if he truly thought he'd command a better return than Heyward, and this could have scared away teams that might have offered a better package than SD.

Finally, Markakis on a 4-year deal is questionable in a vaccuum, and even more questionable given our focus on 2016 - 2018.
 
Outside of the Upton move I really don't have a problem with any of our moves. I actually like our offseason outside of that deal. I fully understand that long term this Upton deal may end up being a great one and I completely understand the move. Just don't like a guy who just had tommy john being our centerpiece.
 
I have been saying for weeks that JUp should have been traded the day after Tomas signed when the number of teams that wanted him was at its peak. Instead, Hart misplayed his hand and had to settle for whatever SD was still willing to offer: a package of junk where quantity replaced quality.

In fact, I would argue that the return for two BP arms was better than the return for JUp. That is how badly Hart played the JUp deal.

The Braves will be lucky if even ONE player from the Heyward/JUp returns (outside of Miller) makes an impact at the MLB level.
 
Enscheff said:
In fact, I would argue that the return for two BP arms was better than the return for JUp. That is how badly Hart played the JUp deal.
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I think Fried is a bit more valuable than Banuelos, personally.

Also, we freed up around $14m in the Upton trade and that is a big factor. You could argue that some of the money freed up by trading Justin was what allowed us to acquire Banuelos. Signing Grilli (and hopefully a good LH Reliever) with some of the Upton proceeds basically allowed us to "buy" Banuelos for redundant parts.
 
After last September I like the idea of re-grouping. They've (Cox-Surh) have wanted Markakis a long time. Letting go of JHey and JUp aren't that bigga deals.

Not sure who people think they were going to get for either. Both will cost a bundle to keep and their contributions were -- well, look at last September.

I think of the runners left on base and hot n cold offensive production from these two corner outfielders outweigh a few diving catches
 
57Brave said:
After last September I like the idea of re-grouping. They've (Cox-Surh) have wanted Markakis a long time. Letting go of JHey and JUp aren't that bigga deals.
Not sure who people think they were going to get for either. Both will cost a bundle to keep and their contributions were -- well, look at last September.

I think of the runners left on base and hot n cold offensive production from these two corner outfielders outweigh a few diving catches
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:Gasp:
 
My complaint/concern is that it appears that Hart locked himself into a limited philosophy of having to get high end pitching back in any deal.

After the Heyward deal, which I liked, he still was pushing for pitching, pitching, pitching. My question is why JUST pitching? Why not best deal available? After all, the team and farm system have holes everywhere, not just SP.

What did he ultimately get for Upton? A high potential, though injured, LH starting pitcher who won't throw a pitch in 2015 and won't be ready for 2-3 years at best, a guy that looks like a AAAA infielder, a guy who has vastly underperformed his projection to this point and an all speed outfielder who has little value if he can't be a legit LO man. From my point of view, if Fried doesn't work out then the trade was a bust. And Fried is coming off TJ, won't pitch in 2015 and likely won't help, at all, until 2017, if then.

I think there were far better deals for Upton out there to be had if the pitching requirement was dropped. Seattle, for instance, has a number of high quality position players that they could have given up in a deal because they were already set at the position at the ML level. But, apparently Hart wouldn't take that and stuck to demanding Walker and/or other pitching.

As for the Markakis signing, for me it makes almost zero sense, even less after the offseason surgery. You have a fading veteran who's injured. The team that knows him best didn't even bother to make an offer even though they were in dire need. Even if he does return to form somewhat he is not a difference maker, the final key piece to make the team a contender. He bats LH, so you can't say he was brought in to protect Freeman. He's not cheap, especially considering his medical history, so unless you find a desperate taker you won't get anything back in trade, if you can trade him.

I doubt the moves will really hurt the Braves long term. But, to me, the point of making the moves was to help long term and I am not sure that has been done.
 
The other point worth making is that we are in a pitching rich and hitter scarce era. The idea that you can't have too much pitching doesn't fit with the times.
 
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