Braves "Kick Tires" on Dozier

[zitothebrave]

The point is that it's not hard to see where several of the rumors this winter have come from.

You only get the chance to add some players every-so-often. When potential long-term considerations become "available", it isn't that big a stretch to draw the conclusion that the Braves might be "in on them" - particularly when they can be had for pieces we have.

Like I said earlier, I wouldn't personally add some of the players we've been mentioned as being in on, but that doesn't necessarily make those people who mentioned acquiring them "idiots". We have arguably the deepest system in the game, so we have the pieces to trade for just about anyone the brass decides to. Now that Ender has been locked up and identified as a "core player", not only is Mallex "excess" - you're not really looking to have someone else as a leadoff hitter. That doesn't mean I'd simply give Mallex or Albies away (by any stretch), but this winter has shown us that the brass intends to have Ender and Swanson hitting in front of Freeman for the long run. With that being the case, aren't you somewhat "wasting" Mallex' and Albies' talents if you're going to slide them down to the bottom of the order?

Adding a guy like Dozier makes sense IF you intend to extend him as another core piece. Why tuck an "extra" leadoff guy away in the #8 or #9-hole if you can add another 30+ HR bat?

Really just playing devil's advocate in most situations, but it's not ridiculous for people to tie us to other "win now" pieces when we just added three arms to the rotation and the new park's opening.

To answer most of your post.

1. As i recall more than one member of the organization considers Ozzie the future at leadoff. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I recall reading something. I like Ender in the 2 hole or 6 hole.

2. Mallex is excess, but Mallex has little value. The smart thing to do is trade Markakis and let Mallex play and hopefully he'll be successful and someone will trade for him then. Right now his value is pretty low.

3. Dozier is a quality player. I'm not going to put him down. But I don't think he's the missing piece. I'm fine with sniffing around guys for value, Dozier would have costed us a haul. Probably ALbies, Allard and Toussant at least.

 

[clvclv]

To answer most of your post.

1. As i recall more than one member of the organization considers Ozzie the future at leadoff. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I recall reading something. I like Ender in the 2 hole or 6 hole.

2. Mallex is excess, but Mallex has little value. The smart thing to do is trade Markakis and let Mallex play and hopefully he'll be successful and someone will trade for him then. Right now his value is pretty low.

3. Dozier is a quality player. I'm not going to put him down. But I don't think he's the missing piece. I'm fine with sniffing around guys for value, Dozier would have costed us a haul. Probably ALbies, Allard and Toussant at least.

They didn't give Ender that extension to hit second or sixth, sorry.

While I'm with you (and the many others) who would prefer to keep Mallex over Markakis, doing so just devalues Mallex IMO. There seems to be a lot of lip service paid to playing Mallex in RF around here that doesn't make sense. If he had the arm for it (which I'm not convinced he does), you'd expect that the organization would at least play him over there at some point to see if he could be a fit there.

Would be interested to understand how you came up with Albies, Allard, and Toussaint. No one makes that trade - other than the Twins or their fans. The Dodgers apparently aren't offering much more than DeLeon or he'd be in Los Angeles already. Given the recent trades I wouldn't blame GMs for asking for the moon for established players, but you have to be careful when you do IMO. It sure doesn't take long for word to get out that you're asking for way too much - especially if one of the teams you're talking with has pieces you want and you're just trying to "rape" them. Not only do you run the risk of running the team you'd prefer to deal with off, you take the chance that you scare off other ones with similar pieces that you might like to have as well. While it makes sense to not "give away" pieces you control longer, advertising that you won't take less than "so-and-so" simply limits your market. If Dombrowski drew a line in the sand and said he wasn't including Moncada in the Sale deal, then where could the Sox have gone? The Braves had already said they wouldn't include Dansby. Do you then move on to the #3 or #4 team you'd prefer to deal with? Just me, but I don't think you can do a good job in a rebuild situation if you paint yourself into a corner by saying things like "I won't take less than" from the start. Listen to any and everyone, then start weeding through offers before eliminating anyone.

Again, it really doesn't make much difference in the case of Dozier, but I wouldn't have a problem dealing Albies plus a non-elite arm for him if (and only if) you were going to extend him. I certainly see the reasons for not trading for him as well. I just think Heyman tying us to him isn't as far-fetched as some do apparently. If Coppy was talking about Sale/Archer/Gray/Quintana, it simply makes sense that he'd at least sniff around on everyone who could be a potential long-term fit.

 

[thewupk]

To answer most of your post.

1. As i recall more than one member of the organization considers Ozzie the future at leadoff. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I recall reading something. I like Ender in the 2 hole or 6 hole.

2. Mallex is excess, but Mallex has little value. The smart thing to do is trade Markakis and let Mallex play and hopefully he'll be successful and someone will trade for him then. Right now his value is pretty low.

3. Dozier is a quality player. I'm not going to put him down. But I don't think he's the missing piece. I'm fine with sniffing around guys for value, Dozier would have costed us a haul. Probably ALbies, Allard and Toussant at least.

With only two years left Dozier isn't going to cost you a haul. His surplus value is somewhere in the 30-50 million range. Albies, Allard, and Toussant is overkill.

 

[nsacpi]

With only two years left Dozier isn't going to cost you a haul. His surplus value is somewhere in the 30-50 million range. Albies, Allard, and Toussant is overkill.

And a scenario in which Dozier signs an extension doesn't really change the picture much. Players a year or two from free agency don't usually sign team friendly extensions.

 

[Enscheff]

And a scenario in which Dozier signs an extension doesn't really change the picture much. Players a year or two from free agency don't usually sign team friendly extensions.

It always baffles me how some folks could consider the whole "sign him to an extension" argument as a good thing that adds value.

 

[goldfly]

It always baffles me how some folks could consider the whole "sign him to an extension" argument as a good thing that adds value.

depends on how much the extension is

if you overpay, bad

under pay, good to have a player signed for a while that doesn't cost much and if you want to trade the other team knows they will get to hold on to them for a little while instead of walking early

 

[thewupk]

depends on how much the extension is

if you overpay, bad

under pay, good to have a player signed for a while that doesn't cost much and if you want to trade the other team knows they will get to hold on to them for a little while instead of walking early

I think age is an important factor too. These are two cherry picked examples but clearly the trade and ext for Ender looks a lot better than the trade and ext of Uggla. And age and expected performance drop off is something to consider. Dozier will be 32 at the start of any extension or FA contract and to me that's not a good age to be paying him for.

 

[nsacpi]

I think age is an important factor too. These are two cherry picked examples but clearly the trade and ext for Ender looks a lot better than the trade and ext of Uggla. And age and expected performance drop off is something to consider. Dozier will be 32 at the start of any extension or FA contract and to me that's not a good age to be paying him for.

distance from free agency is the key variable that seems to determine how team friendly these deals are

 

[thewupk]

distance from free agency is the key variable that seems to determine how team friendly these deals are

Yeah. A year or two out and the player can smell the FA dollars.

 

[Knucksie]

While I'm with you (and the many others) who would prefer to keep Mallex over Markakis, doing so just devalues Mallex IMO. There seems to be a lot of lip service paid to playing Mallex in RF around here that doesn't make sense. If he had the arm for it (which I'm not convinced he does), you'd expect that the organization would at least play him over there at some point to see if he could be a fit there.

That started with me. Speed has been an organizational need for over 20 years. If we use the last rebuild as a reference, an important dimension of the Braves offense was having Otis and Deion wreaking havoc. It's understood that the game has evolved since that time, and we don't see the likes of Ricky Henderson or Vince Coleman anymore. Speed can enhance the offense, so that it won't dependent upon Freeman to lift a 3-run jack.

Back during the Scout days, it was obvious that same posters cared more about their fantasy league teams than the Braves in reality. A similar situation is developing here. Certain posters would rather yap about what X player's supposed "value" is in a trade. Forget about building a contending and eventually a championship-caliber team. Let's just worry about trades!

It becomes a question of which player would offer the Braves a better chance at winning over the long term. Markakis does or Mallexdoes? Markakis has probably already peaked as major league. We don't yet know how good Mallex might get. He provides better baserunning skills, at least as good defense, lower salary and should be able to hit for average and maybe develop some power.

 

[Southcack77]

That started with me. Speed has been an organizational need for over 20 years. If we use the last rebuild as a reference, an important dimension of the Braves offense was having Otis and Deion wreaking havoc. It's understood that the game has evolved since that time, and we don't see the likes of Ricky Henderson or Vince Coleman anymore. Speed can enhance the offense, so that it won't dependent upon Freeman to lift a 3-run jack.

Back during the Scout days, it was obvious that same posters cared more about their fantasy league teams than the Braves in reality. A similar situation is developing here. Certain posters would rather yap about what X player's supposed "value" is in a trade. Forget about building a contending and eventually a championship-caliber team. Let's just worry about trades!

It becomes a question of which player would offer the Braves a better chance at winning over the long term. Markakis does or Mallexdoes? Markakis has probably already peaked as major league. We don't yet know how good Mallex might get. He provides better baserunning skills, at least as good defense, lower salary and should be able to hit for average and maybe develop some power.

I think the reality is that Markakis is likely to be a better baseball player than Mallex Smith the next two seasons.

While there is fantasy baseball and hypothetical trade value, there is most definitely a common tendency to overrate prospects who haven't had to actually produce yet, which is often times followed by underrating formerly overrated prospects who don't immediately succeed.

and definitely there is always a tendency to discount or fail to appreciate players who fill defined roles pretty well, but who have defined ceilings (and generally speaking floors).

 

[nsacpi]

I think the reality is that Markakis is likely to be a better baseball player than Mallex Smith the next two seasons.

Mallex in 215 PA was a 0.5 WAR player last year. Muk in 684 PA generated 1.1 WAR.

The usual caveats about sample size, WAR not being perfect, the games being played on the field and not in a spreadsheet, veteran leadership, grit, clutchness and so forth apply.

 

[Knucksie]

I think the reality is that Markakis is likely to be a better baseball player than Mallex Smith the next two seasons.

While there is fantasy baseball and hypothetical trade value, there is most definitely a common tendency to overrate prospects who haven't had to actually produce yet, which is often times followed by underrating formerly overrated prospects who don't immediately succeed.

and definitely there is always a tendency to discount or fail to appreciate players who fill defined roles pretty well, but who have defined ceilings (and generally speaking floors).

A year in AAA can't hurt Mallex, but there might be concern now that he's injury prone. Hopefully he's stays healthy for all of 2017.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Mallex really has no place to play as long as Ender is in the OF.

The lineup with Ender and Albies will essentially be: CF Ender, SS Swanson, 1B Freeman, ?, ?, ?, ?, 2B Albies or possibly CF Ender, 2B Albies, SS Swanson IF Swanson develops into more of a production bat instead of a table setting bat. One of the open spots is Catcher and unless the Braves somehow acquire (since he's certainly not currently in the system) a McCann like catcher who can catch and also be a production bat, then you are essentially looking at finding significant production from LF, RF and 3B to go along with Freeman. That's not Mallex's game. He's either a top of the lineup table setter or a #8 guy to slot in front of pitchers to bunt over. He really has no place.

That's why he will very likely start at AAA and probably be included in a trade at the trade deadline.

 

[nsacpi]

If Mallex and Ender both end up being players who produce 3 WAR or more per season, there is absolutely a place for them in the same outfield of a championship caliber team, irregardless of the composition of the rest of the lineup.

 

[smootness]

If Mallex and Ender both end up being players who produce 3 WAR or more per season, there is absolutely a place for them in the same outfield of a championship caliber team, irregardless of the composition of the rest of the lineup.

I do agree with this, but I'm not sure what the chances of Mallex developing into a 3 WAR player are.

And in reference to the Dozier extension discussion, the point is that extending him is something done after the trade. It should not in any way cause us to part with more than we otherwise would in a trade for him. Even if you know for a fact you will be able to extend him after the trade, you're still trading for 2 years of Dozier and should compensate the Twins accordingly.

And count me among those who both don't really want Brian Dozier as a long-term 2B and definitely don't want to give up Albies to get it.

 

[nsacpi]

I do agree with this, but I'm not sure what the chances of Mallex developing into a 3 WAR player are.

I'd say the chances are well below 50% at the moment. He is an intriguing prospect, but most prospects with his age-tools profile don't end up that good. But every now and then one of them turns into a Michael Bourn.

 

[thethe]

If Mallex and Ender both end up being players who produce 3 WAR or more per season, there is absolutely a place for them in the same outfield of a championship caliber team, irregardless of the composition of the rest of the lineup.

For some reason Mallex is criminally underrated within the brave fan community. He performed at all levels in the minors at good ages and showed flashes of his potential when he got into action.

Braves need to look to trade Nick for the best offer out there and play Mallex everyday.

 

[nsacpi]

For some reason Mallex is criminally underrated within the brave fan community. He performed at all levels in the minors at good ages and showed flashes of his potential when he got into action.

Braves need to look to trade Nick for the best offer out there and play Mallex everyday.

I would like to see us hold on to him and get a better idea of what we've got. Of course the usual caveat applies if another team came through with an offer that knocks our socks off.

 

[striker42]

For some reason Mallex is criminally underrated within the brave fan community. He performed at all levels in the minors at good ages and showed flashes of his potential when he got into action.

Braves need to look to trade Nick for the best offer out there and play Mallex everyday.

I agree and don't get why this is. He has 80 speed, has a history of hitting for average, and has shown he has the ability to take a walk. He's the prototypical leadoff hitter. I see no reason why he can't become a guy who can get on base at a .360+ clip and steal 40+ bases a year. The only issue is where he plays. He can't come close to Ender's defense in center and doesn't have the arm for right. That leaves left field which is a position you like having more power at.

I'd love to find a spot for Mallex but if we can't then we need to make another team pay dearly for him. A young, major league ready CFer who can come in and leadoff for you has a ton of value.