Braves Reach Deal With Jonny Venters

CrimsonCowboy

CrimsonCowboy

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David O'Brien ‏@ajcbraves 1m

#Braves agreed to terms w/ reliever Jonny Venters on a 1-yr deal, avoiding arb. Coming back from 2nd TJ surgery, should be back April/May.
 
Better be for cheap. Success rate for guys returning following second TJ surgery is substantially lower than following the first one.
 
Glad to see. The team has a ton of depth when it comes to right-handed relief. Not so much on the left side. Right now we're starting the season with Avilan and Wood presumably in the pen and Buchter, Gilmartin and Thomas in AAA. That's it in terms of upper level lefty pen candidates.
 
Good deal. I guarantee others would have been willing to spend exponentially more on a pitcher with Jonny's potential.
 
"For Reyes, 37, to be this successful after a second ulnar collateral ligament replacement is rare, according to James Andrews, a Birmingham, Ala.-based orthopedist who many pitchers visit to seek second opinions on their throwing arms. According to statistics maintained by his office, Andrews performed 1,169 Tommy John surgeries over the 12-year span from 1994 until 2005. Of those, only 12 players were going for their second elbow reconstruction.

For those 12, the success rate — a pitcher making it to his presurgery level of baseball — is about 20%, Andrews estimates.

Before performing his second Tommy John surgery on pitcher Doug Brocail, Thomas Mehlhoff, a physician with the Houston Astros, gave even more staggering odds.

"Dr. Mehlhoff gave me a 5% chance of a comeback, and I said, 'With your 5% and my 95%, I'll pitch again,' " said Brocail, 40, a reliever for the San Diego Padres."


http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-07-18-tommy-john_N.htm
 
With those odds Its a wonder they even signed him and even bigger wonder if they can hold a spot in the pen for him. Perhaps they will try to stretch him out as Cox intimated over the years.
 
Pitchers that have 2 TJ surgeries are also probably usually in the twilight of their careers already I would think. So that probably impacts the stats a lot. I'd be interested to see a more narrowed focus on these stats for pitchers under the age of 30 who have gone through a second TJ surgery.
 
clvclv said:
Better be for cheap. Success rate for guys returning following second TJ surgery is substantially lower than following the first one.
Click to expand...

It's probably for like 2 million or so, worth the risk.
 
1.6 million is a bargain if he's 70% of what he once was.

Unlikely but well worth the risk to find out.
 
Looks like Kimbrel is feeling the heat.

YeiG4zr.jpg
 
clvclv said:
"For Reyes, 37, to be this successful after a second ulnar collateral ligament replacement is rare, according to James Andrews, a Birmingham, Ala.-based orthopedist who many pitchers visit to seek second opinions on their throwing arms. According to statistics maintained by his office, Andrews performed 1,169 Tommy John surgeries over the 12-year span from 1994 until 2005. Of those, only 12 players were going for their second elbow reconstruction.

For those 12, the success rate — a pitcher making it to his presurgery level of baseball — is about 20%, Andrews estimates.

Before performing his second Tommy John surgery on pitcher Doug Brocail, Thomas Mehlhoff, a physician with the Houston Astros, gave even more staggering odds.

"Dr. Mehlhoff gave me a 5% chance of a comeback, and I said, 'With your 5% and my 95%, I'll pitch again,' " said Brocail, 40, a reliever for the San Diego Padres."


http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-07-18-tommy-john_N.htm
Click to expand...

Not really disputing the notion that this procedure is significantly more risky a second time around, but it's worth noting that the article you linked was published in 2007. I believe that the procedure has seen incremental advancements since that time.

Brian Wilson, Chris Capuano, Shawn Kelley, Brocail have all had it twice. Heck, Jason Isringhausen had the surgery three times.

Most of the notable guys who have had the surgery twice and then flamed out were up in pitching age to begin with (Darren Dreifort, Jose Rijo, etc., et al.)
 
clvclv said:
"For Reyes, 37, to be this successful after a second ulnar collateral ligament replacement is rare, according to James Andrews, a Birmingham, Ala.-based orthopedist who many pitchers visit to seek second opinions on their throwing arms. According to statistics maintained by his office, Andrews performed 1,169 Tommy John surgeries over the 12-year span from 1994 until 2005. Of those, only 12 players were going for their second elbow reconstruction.

For those 12, the success rate — a pitcher making it to his presurgery level of baseball — is about 20%, Andrews estimates.

Before performing his second Tommy John surgery on pitcher Doug Brocail, Thomas Mehlhoff, a physician with the Houston Astros, gave even more staggering odds.

"Dr. Mehlhoff gave me a 5% chance of a comeback, and I said, 'With your 5% and my 95%, I'll pitch again,' " said Brocail, 40, a reliever for the San Diego Padres."


http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-07-18-tommy-john_N.htm
Click to expand...

Only 12 cases of study. Pretty small sample size there.
 
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