Braves Should Avoid Becoming Diamondbacks

Enscheff said:
All of this "who really got better and who was just hot" discussion is precisely what these projection systems try to determine. The FG depth charts take the average of 2 of the best projection systems out there, ZiPs and Steamer, and applies their best guess to playing time.

It's fine to have an opinion like Freeman will outperform his 3.8 WAR projection, but you need to explain why to be taken seriously, and that explanation needs to include more than, "I just think he has turned the corner and is ready to be a perennial MVP candidate". These projection systems see his .370 BABIP last year being much higher than his career BABIP of .340 and factor in some regression. For some reason, they regress his BABIP next year all the way down to .327, which I disagree with, so that's my reason for adjusting his WAR up by 1.

It's also fine to say you think Julio will be better than the 2.5 WAR they project him to have, but your reasoning should be something a little more concrete than, "I just think he is a solid #2 that might become an Ace next year". Julio has consistently outperformed his peripherals by 0.5-1 WAR over the years (due to inducing a lot of infield flies and pick-offs) so I am also confident in adjusting his WAR value for next season up by about 1 WAR.

Same thing with Inciarte. They are projecting a major drop off in defensive value resulting in a 2 WAR projection, which I see as being highly unlikely. I see no reason not to expect Inciarte to hold his defensive value next year, regress slightly with the bat, and still put up 3+ WAR.

The rest of the guys seem about right. Albies should be able to provide a ~2 win upgrade 1-2 months into the season. A guy like Castro should be able to add another win. Someone like Valbuena could add one more.

Add all that up and the Braves can reasonably be projected to be a 77 win team next year, including the addition of guys like Albies, Castro and Valbuena. Some guys will do better than their projections, some worse, but it will probably even out.

Simply put, the current Braves organization is at about a 75 win talent level.
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That's about where i would put them as well. They could outplay their talent, but we have to grow quite a bit to be a contender.
 
nsacpi said:
im a little more optimistic...i think we are an 80 win team
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I think that's in the +/- range. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could be a .500 team. I just think a lot more things would have to go right and almost nothing could go wrong for us to be a playoff contender. Stranger things have happened, but I think the stars would really have to be in perfect alignment for us to get above 85 wins and into the playoff conversation.
 
50PoundHead said:
That's about where i would put them as well. They could outplay their talent, but we have to grow quite a bit to be a contender.
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Don't see much of a reason to argue with much of that at all which leads us back to clarifying the fact that this is just about where The Johns expected us to be at this point when they said we'd "be competitive" in 2017.

Unrealistic average fans heard that and ran with it and took it to mean "legitimate contenders" with expectations of a deep playoff run. Call it defending them or whatever, but the brass never said anything of the sort. They said competitive, which to many of us means "in the mix" - as explained by Enscheff's post. To put it into even simpler, non-numbers terms, IF some of the second half performances were signs that some have turned a corner, IF Kemp is relatively close to what he's been since he came over, IF the rotation additions can help Julio a bit until the youngsters arrive, and IF Swanson can produce at the same clip now that Pitchers have seen him and Albies gives us a shot in the arm at some point - this team ought to be in the mix at least as late as the deadline.

That's "competitive" to many.
 
A team like the Rangers was an 85 win team in terms of talent, and then go 36-11 in 1 run games and finish with 95 wins.

It would take a similarly freakish series of events for the Braves to win 85+ games and be in the WC hunt, but things like that happen almost every year. Just ask the Royals and Orioles and Rangers.

Of course, if you are going to play the "everything goes right game" you have to also be willing to entertain the "everything goes wrong" scenario where the Braves go 8-30 in 1 run games and finish with 67 wins despite being a 77 win true talent roster. Just ask the 2015 Jays about that after they went 15-28 in 1 run games despite winning 93 games overall.
 
mqt said:
Freddie was on par with Bonds' career numbers in the second half. Forgive me for not expecting that to continue.
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There is also a difference between expecting Freeman to hit that way the rest of his career and having a prime where he has numbers close to that.
 
Enscheff said:
All of this "who really got better and who was just hot" discussion is precisely what these projection systems try to determine. The FG depth charts take the average of 2 of the best projection systems out there, ZiPs and Steamer, and applies their best guess to playing time.

It's fine to have an opinion like Freeman will outperform his 3.8 WAR projection, but you need to explain why to be taken seriously, and that explanation needs to include more than, "I just think he has turned the corner and is ready to be a perennial MVP candidate". These projection systems see his .370 BABIP last year being much higher than his career BABIP of .340 and factor in some regression. For some reason, they regress his BABIP next year all the way down to .327, which I disagree with, so that's my reason for adjusting his WAR up by 1.

It's also fine to say you think Julio will be better than the 2.5 WAR they project him to have, but your reasoning should be something a little more concrete than, "I just think he is a solid #2 that might become an Ace next year". Julio has consistently outperformed his peripherals by 0.5-1 WAR over the years (due to inducing a lot of infield flies and pick-offs) so I am also confident in adjusting his WAR value for next season up by about 1 WAR.

Same thing with Inciarte. They are projecting a major drop off in defensive value resulting in a 2 WAR projection, which I see as being highly unlikely. I see no reason not to expect Inciarte to hold his defensive value next year, regress slightly with the bat, and still put up 3+ WAR.

The rest of the guys seem about right. Albies should be able to provide a ~2 win upgrade 1-2 months into the season. A guy like Castro should be able to add another win. Someone like Valbuena could add one more.

Add all that up and the Braves can reasonably be projected to be a 77 win team next year, including the addition of guys like Albies, Castro and Valbuena. Some guys will do better than their projections, some worse, but it will probably even out.

Simply put, the current Braves organization is at about a 75 win talent level.
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Enscheff, I am a tax lawyer. Our tax code is an impenetrable mass of policy decisions, debate and hash over 100 years of determining what is "fair" for tax purposes, resulting in some spectacular anomalies and miscarriages - but mostly mountains of paper or its digital equivalent.

But most importantly, it results in full employment - forever and ever - for tax attorneys.

When I see analyses like the one you have done here, I have similar thoughts with regard to sabermetricians. The only thing I don't understand is that you slog through all that quicksand and nobody pays you to do it.

Of course, they do pay you for your porn career, so maybe I'm the bigger fool.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Enscheff, I am a tax lawyer. Our tax code is an impenetrable mass of policy decisions, debate and hash over 100 years of determining what is "fair" for tax purposes, resulting in some spectacular anomalies and miscarriages - but mostly mountains of paper or its digital equivalent.

But most importantly, it results in full employment - forever and ever - for tax attorneys.

When I see analyses like the one you have done here, I have similar thoughts with regard to sabermetricians. The only thing I don't understand is that you slog through all that quicksand and nobody pays you to do it.

Of course, they do pay you for your porn career, so maybe I'm the bigger fool.
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Putting the Saber in sabermetrics
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Enscheff, I am a tax lawyer. Our tax code is an impenetrable mass of policy decisions, debate and hash over 100 years of determining what is "fair" for tax purposes, resulting in some spectacular anomalies and miscarriages - but mostly mountains of paper or its digital equivalent.

But most importantly, it results in full employment - forever and ever - for tax attorneys.

When I see analyses like the one you have done here, I have similar thoughts with regard to sabermetricians. The only thing I don't understand is that you slog through all that quicksand and nobody pays you to do it.

Of course, they do pay you for your porn career, so maybe I'm the bigger fool.
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I slog through it due to a natural curiosity to learn about what really makes things tick. I want to know what makes teams win and what makes an organization successful. I'm not satisfied by cheering for the team with the prettiest uniform.

It is the exact opposite of being willingly ignorant. I know it's in style nowadays to remain stupid despite all sorts of information at our fingertips, but I suppose I'm not very stylish.
 
Enscheff said:
I slog through it due to a natural curiosity to learn about what really makes things tick. I want to know what makes teams win and what makes an organization successful. I'm not satisfied by cheering for the team with the prettiest uniform.

It is the exact opposite of being willingly ignorant. I know it's in style nowadays to remain stupid despite all sorts of information at our fingertips, but I suppose I'm not very stylish.
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Just don't lose sight of the fact that teams and players can, and will, under- or over-perform your most well-designed and elegant analysis. They play on grass.

Having said that, I am repulsed by the willful ignorance of our electorate, so why not embrace Enscheff's elusive search of cellular-level truth and discovery in the sabermetric field? Carry on.
 
clvclv said:
Don't see much of a reason to argue with much of that at all which leads us back to clarifying the fact that this is just about where The Johns expected us to be at this point when they said we'd "be competitive" in 2017.

Unrealistic average fans heard that and ran with it and took it to mean "legitimate contenders" with expectations of a deep playoff run. Call it defending them or whatever, but the brass never said anything of the sort. They said competitive, which to many of us means "in the mix" - as explained by Enscheff's post. To put it into even simpler, non-numbers terms, IF some of the second half performances were signs that some have turned a corner, IF Kemp is relatively close to what he's been since he came over, IF the rotation additions can help Julio a bit until the youngsters arrive, and IF Swanson can produce at the same clip now that Pitchers have seen him and Albies gives us a shot in the arm at some point - this team ought to be in the mix at least as late as the deadline.

That's "competitive" to many.
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Yep.

I think they've assembled a roster that is competitive. As it stands, probably not a playoff team but if all of the Peter Gammons IFs work outdoor the team it could happen that they are in the race late.

However, the most likely result is that they fade out of the race.

either way, if they can find a way to flip Kemp's contract to completely free themselves from the Oliveira mistake that would be great.

Then if they fall out, would be good to see them manage some more good prospect acquisitions for their older pieces like the rotation guys, Markakis, Johnson, etc. Given the interesting guys they got this past season, they can help themselves that way too.

If they find themselves in playoff somehow, who can complain about that?
 
thewupk said:
There is also a difference between expecting Freeman to hit that way the rest of his career and having a prime where he has numbers close to that.
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But even then, you're talking peak Miguel Cabrera and steroid-era Sammy Sosa. Freeman's 2nd half numbers were outrageous.
 
smootness said:
But even then, you're talking peak Miguel Cabrera and steroid-era Sammy Sosa. Freeman's 2nd half numbers were outrageous.
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Yeah they were. And he has one of the best line drive hit tools in the game. If he is elevating the ball now(like he did in the 2nd half) then he is going to put up monster numbers.
 
Southcack77 said:
Yep.

I think they've assembled a roster that is competitive. As it stands, probably not a playoff team but if all of the Peter Gammons IFs work outdoor the team it could happen that they are in the race late.

However, the most likely result is that they fade out of the race.

either way, if they can find a way to flip Kemp's contract to completely free themselves from the Oliveira mistake that would be great.

Then if they fall out, would be good to see them manage some more good prospect acquisitions for their older pieces like the rotation guys, Markakis, Johnson, etc. Given the interesting guys they got this past season, they can help themselves that way too.

If they find themselves in playoff somehow, who can complain about that?
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All those IFS now make whatever decisions Coppy and Company make in the next little bit the most important ones, as it's now decision-time for several players as they try to shape the future IMO.

1.) Do we have a true "Ace" in the system, and one that could be ready by the middle of next season or early 2019?

2.) Does Riley really have a slider-speed bat, and can he stick at 3B?

2.) How fast do they think Maitan can develop, and where will they ultimately play him?

4.) Is Acuna "for real", and can he become a star?

Those answers will dictate the next steps, as early as the rest of this offseason.
 
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