Braves sign Charlie Morton

[UNCBlue012]

FWIW, Olney is saying Morton wanted the Rays or Braves and that’s essentially it. So he may have been offered more and just knew he was staying close to home.

 

[Carp]

Cock Thrust!!!!!

My #1 target in FA. This rotation is going to be filthy. Legitimately have 5 starting pitchers now that all have the ability to post a 2-3 WAR at least. I'm not going to say I expect that. I'm sure there'll be injuries or regression somewhere, but the fact that they all have that ability is exciting.

 

[Super]

FWIW, Olney is saying Morton wanted the Rays or Braves and that’s essentially it. So he may have been offered more and just knew he was staying close to home.

right, and that's where Enscheff's point of "no one traded even a marginal prospect for him and his $15M" fails. i'm sure the Rays understood and respected his preferences. the Yankees or Red Sox would be silly not to pay him $15M for one year. but, he didn't want to play there.

 

[Carp]

Wright has to be on the way out to trade for a position player right?

Doubt it. Newk or Touki may be.

With injury concerns to Soroka and Smyly, we have to have quality depth ready to step in. I would say it's somewhat likely that 1 of our current starting 5 will start the season on the DL.

 

[Carp]

We don't know exactly how Liberty is running the Braves. Remember last year when they moved half of Flowers' and Neck's money to the previous year because of some accounting plan? They may have some sort of plan that is several years out.

As I recall the Battery is not the big issue I see here on the board. I may be wrong. I'm not going to go searching, but I thought I remembered when Liberty last had an earning's report the Battery was only about a million down in revenue from last year. It was 7 million vs 8 million, or something similar. Down but not crazy. I know the other issue is the debt. But they have done work to restructure and they have banked money from previous years.

The Braves having hype around them and winning on the field is required to maximize the Battery investment.

My problem is that you still probably need to spend 30-40 million to be a top team. DH, LF, Bench, Pen. They need another 20+ million dollar bat. To be a WS team they need a fourth and a fifth hitter in my opinion.

Because we are likely looking at a 7-8-9 of Swanson, Riley and Pache. I don't expect Riley or Pache to have a 100 wrc+.

We're already a top team.

We don't need to spend anywhere near that amount to round out the line-up. Joc Pederson to platoon with Duval and a LHH 3b to platoon with Riley should cost us less than 20 million and would provide plenty of offense to go along with the players we already have. Maybe sign a reliever to a cheap deal, but again, we're still looking great in the pen without any additions.

 

[Russ2dollas]

We're already a top team.

We don't need to spend anywhere near that amount to round out the line-up. Joc Pederson to platoon with Duval and a LHH 3b to platoon with Riley should cost us less than 20 million and would provide plenty of offense to go along with the players we already have. Maybe sign a reliever to a cheap deal, but again, we're still looking great in the pen without any additions.

We will just have to disagree. We need more IMO. We need to try and win the whole thing.

And when they push through this bull**** expanded playoffs you need to be able to overwhelm teams that will have shut down starters.

And the dodgers aren’t going away. Watch them get lindor.

Plus Cruz and Brantley are 1-2 year deals.

 

[Enscheff]

right, and that's where Enscheff's point of "no one traded even a marginal prospect for him and his $15M" fails. i'm sure the Rays understood and respected his preferences. the Yankees or Red Sox would be silly not to pay him $15M for one year. but, he didn't want to play there.

I don't see anywhere that Morton had no trade protection. The Rays could have shipped him anywhere, and not once in any trade the Rays have pulled off have I read anything to suggest they "respect player's preferences".

If it came down to the Braves vs Rays, as it always appeared it was going to, and the Braves paid exactly the amount the Rays refused to pay, then it was by definition an overpay. There were no other bidders.

The choice for Morton may have been $15M from the Rays or Braves or retire, at which point none of my speculation holds any water because they were also bidding against retirement.

Either way, Morton is the guy I wanted to see AA get, and paying him $15M isn't nearly as odd as giving Smyly $11M.

 

[Carp]

I am shocked. The Braves have already spent almost all the cash we thought they had.

They are either not going to address the offense (highly unlikely), or have at least another $20M. In my opinion they have overpaid for both Smyly and Morton, and I see no logical way that could have happened unless AA suddenly forgot how to be a top-tier GM (highly unlikely), or he has a lot more payroll space than we thought.

Very cool! This is another very solid addition to the rotation. Perhaps corporate owners shielding the team from financial ups and downs is a benefit folks never considered when they constantly bashed Liberty for being faceless heartless owners.

Overpaid, but that's the trade off in order to retain the same financial flexibility in following years. Even if he misses on these signings, he'll be able to reload next off-season on someone other high reward type of player.

 

[Carp]

We will just have to disagree. We need more IMO. We need to try and win the whole thing.

And when they push through this bull**** expanded playoffs you need to be able to overwhelm teams that will have shut down starters.

And the dodgers aren’t going away. Watch them get lindor.

Plus Cruz and Brantley are 1-2 year deals.

And we were like 8 outs away or something like that from the putting the Dodgers out with a patch work rotation.

Ozuna's contributions can't be ignored, but adding platoon partners for Duvall and Riley should make up a good portion of that. The big difference is the rotation, which now legit looks like one of the best rotations in all of baseball top to bottom.

 

[Enscheff]

Overpaid, but that's the trade off in order to retain the same financial flexibility in following years. Even if he misses on these signings, he'll be able to reload next off-season on someone other high reward type of player.

Short term deals are always higher AAV than long term deals, so that's not overpaying.

AA overpaid in the sense that the only bidders were the Rays and Braves, and the Rays already told everyone they weren't willing to go anywhere near $15M.

I'm going to take these SP signings as indication AA has a payroll of $140M+, so that's nothing but a good thing.

 

[Carp]

I don't see anywhere that Morton had no trade protection. The Rays could have shipped him anywhere, and not once in any trade the Rays have pulled off have I read anything to suggest they "respect player's preferences".

If it came down to the Braves vs Rays, as it always appeared it was going to, and the Braves paid exactly the amount the Rays refused to pay, then it was by definition an overpay. There were no other bidders.

The choice for Morton may have been $15M from the Rays or Braves or retire, at which point none of my speculation holds any water because they were also bidding against retirement.

Either way, Morton is the guy I wanted to see AA get, and paying him $15M isn't nearly as odd as giving Smyly $11M.

Given Morton's previous statements about retiring, I'd be willing to be bet both the Rays and opposing teams knew he would probably retire rather than play somewhere he didn't want to play. You're making a lot of assumptions based on information you don't have. I feel pretty safe assuming that the situation with Morton cannot be compared to 99% of other signings. Retirement has been a very real option for Morton for the last few years.

 

[Super]

Given Morton's previous statements about retiring, I'd be willing to be bet both the Rays and opposing teams knew he would probably retire rather than play somewhere he didn't want to play.

yeah.
however, if ATL and TB were the only places he'd play, and TB made clear they weren't going to pay him $15M, then the Braves did not have to give him $15M.

 

[jpx7]

right, and that's where Enscheff's point of "no one traded even a marginal prospect for him and his $15M" fails. i'm sure the Rays understood and respected his preferences. the Yankees or Red Sox would be silly not to pay him $15M for one year. but, he didn't want to play there.

He also may have just retired if he didn't get the number he wanted from one of the two teams he was considering. So, again, his circumstances are unique, and I have a hard time calling $15m an overpay when he's generally projected as a 2.5–3.0 war pitcher in 2021.

I think it's easier to call the Smyly deal an overpay, given I doubt any team was going to meet his purported 3/$30m optimistic demands, and likewise given the $8m deal secured by a younger, equally-left-handed, seemingly-healthier, wilder but higher-strikeout option (Robbie Ray), who also has a couple 3+ war seasons under his belt (while Smyly's best year was 2.3, back in 2014).

 

[Carp]

yeah.
however, if ATL and TB were the only places he'd play, and TB made clear they weren't going to pay him $15M, then the Braves did not have to give him $15M.

That's assuming AA was aware those were the only 2 teams he would have played for. I can't imagine his agent straight up telling Atl or Tampa "He only wants to play for one of you two and whichever one gives him 15 million first gets him"

 

[Super]

That's assuming AA was aware those were the only 2 teams he would have played for. I can't imagine his agent straight up telling Atl or Tampa "He only wants to play for one of you two and whichever one gives him 15 million first gets him"

true. however it seems it wasn't much of a secret.
i think he would have just retired if the Braves or Rays didn't want him at X amount. the Rays didn't, but the Braves did.

 

[Super]

He also may have just retired if he didn't get the number he wanted from one of the two teams he was considering. So, again, his circumstances are unique, and I have a hard time calling $15m an overpay when he's generally projected as a 2.5–3.0 war pitcher in 2021.

I think it's easier to call the Smyly deal an overpay, given I doubt any team was going to meet his purported 3/$30m optimistic demands, and likewise given the $8m deal secured by a younger, equally-left-handed, seemingly-healthier, wilder but higher-strikeout option (Robbie Ray), who also has a couple 3+ war seasons under his belt (while Smyly's best year was 2.3, back in 2014).

yeah i agree.
Ray's control obviously really dings his value tho. he's far more likely, IMO, to not just be useless, but be *bad*.
Smyly will probably be productive if healthy. the *if healthy* part being the caveat everyone knows about.

 

[jpx7]

yeah i agree.
Ray's control obviously really dings his value tho. he's far more likely, IMO, to not just be useless, but be *bad*.
Smyly will probably be productive if healthy. the *if healthy* part being the caveat everyone knows about.

Performance-wise, Ray's a much higher-variance option. Clearly, when looking/paying for depth, Anthopoulos valued the lower-variance player. We just have to hope Smyly can remain reasonably healthy, and maintain his velocity gains from 2020 over a full season.

Given everything, I still wouldn't mind re-signing Cole Hamels, if he'd return on a super-cheap, make-good single-year contract. Probably unpopular around here, and potentially overkill, but you can never really have too much pitching depth.

 

[Carp]

true. however it seems it wasn't much of a secret.
i think he would have just retired if the Braves or Rays didn't want him at X amount. the Rays didn't, but the Braves did.

Maybe, maybe not. But having a hunch of what his intentions are still doesn't make negotiating a contract any easier. There is still the unknown that you have to factor in. You could overplay your hand and he signs with a mystery team. Or may be he values playing in Tampa for 9-10 million since it's closer to his family than he does playing in Atl for 12-13 million. It's impossible to know.

 

[Carp]

Performance-wise, Ray's a much higher-variance option. Clearly, when looking/paying for depth, Anthopoulos valued the lower-variance player. We just have to hope Smyly can remain reasonably healthy, and maintain his velocity gains from 2020 over a full season.

Given everything, I still wouldn't mind re-signing Cole Hamels, if he'd return on a super-cheap, make-good single-year contract. Probably unpopular around here, and potentially overkill, but you can never really have too much pitching depth.

I'd rather bring back King Felix. I was really interested in seeing him suit up for us before COVID killed that.

 

[Super]

I'd rather bring back King Felix. I was really interested in seeing him suit up for us before COVID killed that.

either one for cheap sounds good to me.
i think Hamels will still end up getting a somewhat decent contract, AKA not the minimum. Felix is a guarantee to sign for the min tho.