Braves sign Dickey

Enscheff said:
Fine, but let's stop the "enscheff is the only one using personal attacks around here" chatter, shall we?
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Okay.

Hey, if you have any interest in hooking up with my ex, I'll send you her mugshot. Like our esteemed president-elect said about Lindsay Lohan, crazy chicks are a wild ride.
 
Enscheff said:
Fine, but let's stop the "enscheff is the only one using personal attacks around here" chatter, shall we?
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Back to the matter at hand. Setting aside the calculus of the proposed trades for a moment, consider this line of thinking.

1. Braves are a 75 (ish) win team without Big Sexy and Big Dickey.

2. The front office is enthusiastic about what they perceive is an offensive breakthrough the last third of the season. They go 30-20 despite fairly atrocious pitching, most nights.

3. They've got a couple clear holes, the rest looks pretty good. They decide they're going to take a real shot at filling 3B and, of course, a partner for Flowers.

4. They sign Big Dickey and Big Sexy. Now they're an 81 win team.

What would be the point of stopping there? What's the point of spending $20m to be a .500 club? Doesn't it make more sense that those were precursors to the end game, which was to fill the #1 slot and compete for the division?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Back to the matter at hand. Setting aside the calculus of the proposed trades for a moment, consider this line of thinking.

1. Braves are a 75 (ish) win team without Big Sexy and Big Dickey.

2. The front office is enthusiastic about what they perceive is an offensive breakthrough the last third of the season. They go 30-20 despite fairly atrocious pitching, most nights.

3. They've got a couple clear holes, the rest looks pretty good. They decide they're going to take a real shot at filling 3B and, of course, a partner for Flowers.

4. They sign Big Dickey and Big Sexy. Now they're an 81 win team.

What would be the point of stopping there? What's the point of spending $20m to be a .500 club? Doesn't it make more sense that those were precursors to the end game, which was to fill the #1 slot and compete for the division?
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Because the line of logic goes like this:

1. The Braves are projected to be a 70 win team before any FA signings, and probably 75 after they added Colon, Dickey and a catcher like Castro or Mac.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/

2. This 75 win total projection includes a full year of Folty, Swanson, Inciarte, and 400 PAs from Albies.

3. Any trade for Sale will undoubtedly subtract from those 75 wins because the return will have to include at least 2 of those 4 young players the team is relying on just to reach 75 wins.

Nobody other than Braves fans think Sale could be had for any package that doesn't include 2 of the guys I mentioned in point 2. If they could get Sale for a package centered around only Inciarte from that group of 4, I would agree it could be a wise move.

However, there is no way the best offer the ChiSox will receive for one of the most valuable assets in the game is Inciarte and a handful of non-elite prospects. If that's the best offer they get, they will just hold onto him until the deadline.
 
Enscheff said:
Because the line of logic goes like this:

1. The Braves are projected to be a 70 win team before any FA signings, and probably 75 after they added Colon, Dickey and a catcher like Castro or Mac.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/

2. This 75 win total projection includes a full year of Folty, Swanson, Inciarte, and 400 PAs from Albies.

3. Any trade for Sale will undoubtedly subtract from those 75 wins because the return will have to include at least 2 of those 4 young players the team is relying on just to reach 75 wins.

Nobody other than Braves fans think Sale could be had for any package that doesn't include 2 of the guys I mentioned in point 2. If they could get Sale for a package centered around only Inciarte from that group of 4, I would agree it could be a wise move.

However, there is no way the best offer the ChiSox will receive for one of the most valuable assets in the game is Inciarte and a handful of non-elite prospects. If that's the best offer they get, they will just hold onto him until the deadline.
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I know the Fangraphs projections suggest less than 75. I do not think the Braves front office is as bearish, do you? So if the front office has a little irrational exuberance about the last third of the year, they might be in a different starting place with these acquisitions. See what I mean?

I do agree that the package for a frontline starter would be stiff. I'm not sure why you keep saying that we're overrating our players ... I was positing Albies, Inciarte, Newcomb, Anderson. That's not a bunch of crap, that's good stuff that matches up with CHX real well. Problem is that the first two cut too deeply into our plans, so we were talking about ways to restructure that would still be attractive to Chicago.

I think the fact that Sale is only controllable for three years has to enter into the calculation for CHX's ask, too. While he's very valuable, he's not five-years valuable.

Are those not valid points, despite not lining up with your thinking?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I know the Fangraphs projections suggest less than 75. I do not think the Braves front office is as bearish, do you? So if the front office has a little irrational exuberance about the last third of the year, they might be in a different starting place with these acquisitions. See what I mean?

I do agree that the package for a frontline starter would be stiff. I'm not sure why you keep saying that we're overrating our players ... I was positing Albies, Inciarte, Newcomb, Anderson. That's not a bunch of crap, that's good stuff that matches up with CHX real well. Problem is that the first two cut too deeply into our plans, so we were talking about ways to restructure that would still be attractive to Chicago.

I think the fact that Sale is only controllable for three years has to enter into the calculation for CHX's ask, too. While he's very valuable, he's not five-years valuable.

Are those not valid points, despite not lining up with your thinking?
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They are all valid points. A package headlined by Albies and Inciarte is absolutely a solid starting point to a deal for Sale. You even said yourself that the "Problem is the first two cut too deeply into our plans", meaning the amount of wins given up will not match the amount of wins added.

So fine, now the exercise becomes finding a package of "other stuff" that doesn't hurt the Braves chances of winning, but is still good enough to convince the ChiSox to part with one of the most valuable assets in the game. I keep going back to the Braves trading Teheran...would you trade Teheran for Inciarte and "other stuff"? Now consider that Sale is worth around 2x Teheran, and we think Inciarte plus "other stuff" is going to get it done? We need to be realistic when we come up with these potential packages, or what's the point?

As I said before, the most plausible deal would be centered around Inciarte plus Folty for Sale, with Mallex taking over in CF and Sale taking Folty's spot in the rotation. The team takes a 1-2 win downgrade in CF to add ~3 wins to next year's team in the rotation, for a net gain of 1-2 wins. The problem with that is Folty has 5 years of control and Sale only 3, and Folty has a real chance of being a 4-5 win pitcher in the future. The Braves would be cashing in 2 years of Folty's wins in 2021 and 2022 (that could potentially be 8-10 wins) for an additional 1-2 wins in 2017 when they most likely aren't going to make the playoffs anyways (even in your optimistic scenario, 81-82 wins is not making the playoffs).

Why trade 8-10 wins from the future for 1-2 wins this year and still miss the playoffs? If the Braves were projected to win ~85 wins next year I could see the reasoning behind cashing in potential future wins for present day wins.

The next step in the thought process is to start bundling as many pieces like Newcomb and Anderson and Blair and "other stuff" with Inciarte to avoid hurting the MLB roster at all. Those scenarios are never going to happen because the ChiSox are not taking a bunch of "other stuff", no matter how many the Braves bundle together, for a 27 year old Ace with 3 years of control remaining. Nobody outside of Braves nation agrees that is even remotely possible.
 
I would rather just trade for Sale, Quintana, Gray, or Archer next year. No reason to waste a year of their contract on a barely competitive year, especially if we have to give up key contributors for them. Next year they'll be less expensive, and we'll prolly be more competitive anyway.

Only downside is if both get traded before we get them, but I feel it's a little unlikely.
 
Ventura's Stolen Bases said:
I would rather just trade for Sale, Quintana, Gray, or Archer next year. No reason to waste a year of their contract on a barely competitive year, especially if we have to give up key contributors for them. Next year they'll be less expensive, and we'll prolly be more competitive anyway.

Only downside is if both get traded before we get them, but I feel it's a little unlikely.
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I agree on the timing. But if a good deal presents itself you have to strike while its hot.
 
smootness said:
My apologies.

It was just Enscheff, then others began returning the same sentiments.

Regardless, Enscheff is always involved.
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I could have written a passive-aggressive paragraph of snark and cleverly pointed out his arrogance and logical fallacies.

But screw it. I'm old.

"Dickhead" is shorthand everyone can understand. The same day on other posts I saw him regarded as a "Dick" and "Dickhole," so I think we're all in the same thesaurus.
 
MLB Trade Rumors, Jeff Todd:

The Braves are “aggressively swapping offers” with other organizations for starters, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Atlanta has been rumored to have inquired on basically all of the quality, young, controllable arms that might be available, and it seems that the organization is serious about pursuing a major strike. One such pitcher, of course, is White Sox lefty Chris Sale....

They don't seem to be listening to Enscheff.
 
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