Braves sign Donaldson, 1 yr 23 million deal.

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nsacpi said:
what would you expect out of him in 2019
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With relatively healthy season, probably about a 3 WAR guy with upside to return to 2016 performance.

If he struggles with injury again, probably something very similar to the 1.5 WAR guy he's been the last two years.

and always the chance he goes down for the season, I guess. I don't really follow his news to know exactly what he's been dealing with so maybe there are some big warnings signs. Dunno.

I don't see any particular reason to suspect any major decline from last season's numbers. In general, I think people over emphasize pitcher decline around here. It usually doesn't fall off a cliff and it's not apparent that is what is happening to Bum. The biggest risk here is that he's never going to be healthy again, which is very possible.

But if you are buying low, I don't see it is as particularly risky. Much like Donaldson, it's a big upside play that doesn't have a lot of downside. You should explore it.

I'm much less averse to pitching than this board seems to be. Particularly where there is no long term commitment.
 
Southcack77 said:
With relatively healthy season, probably about a 3 WAR guy with upside to return to 2016 performance.

If he struggles with injury again, probably something very similar to the 1.5 WAR guy he's been the last two years.

and always the chance he goes down for the season, I guess. I don't really follow his news to know exactly what he's been dealing with so maybe there are some big warnings signs. Dunno.

I don't see any particular reason to suspect any major decline from last season's numbers. In general, I think people over emphasize pitcher decline around here. It usually doesn't fall off a cliff and it's not apparent that is what is happening to Bum. The biggest risk here is that he's never going to be healthy again, which is very possible.

But if you are buying low, I don't see it is as particularly risky. Much like Donaldson, it's a big upside play that doesn't have a lot of downside. You should explore it.

I'm much less averse to pitching than this board seems to be. Particularly where there is no long term commitment.
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The benefit is that if he and Donaldson have big years, we can offer the QO and get 2 additional picks in the draft
 
Maybe Bumgarner is done, but he's only 29, and you can get a QO offer him at seasons end. There's alot worse players to bet on than the most clutch postseason pitcher of all-time.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
The benefit is that if he and Donaldson have big years, we can offer the QO and get 2 additional picks in the draft
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If it worked out that way that would be a nice cherry.

Do the Braves still qualify for getting the higher compensation pick or did the stadium move them out of that range, I wonder.

If you lose two QO free agents (over 50m) do you get two comp picks in the same tier?
 
I am on the Madison bandwagon personally. I think he was coming off a pretty serious injury that probably takes a bit of time to get back the control and trust a pitcher needs to have in himself. Plus the conditioning wasn’t there. His cost would be a factor though. If not too high then I would definitely bite.

Madison will have a monster year. Book it. But only if we trade for him.
 
i would take MadBum but only based on cost. he'll cost too much to acquire anyways. people are saying they don't feel the Giants are serious about moving him.
 
A pitcher like Bumgarner is much more likely to be acquired at the deadline when he proves healthy and a clear need proves to be there. I expect the Braves to be in the hunt to acquire all big names at the upcoming deadline.
 
I would price Bumgarner at about 2.5 WAR in 2019. Given his salary that leaves an expected surplus value of 1 win. If we can get him for organizational filler I'd be ok with it. Even in that scenario I'd rather sign Anibal at 5-6M.
 
nsacpi said:
I would price Bumgarner at about 2.5 WAR in 2019. Given his salary that leaves an expected surplus value of 1 win. If we can get him for organizational filler I'd be ok with it. Even in that scenario I'd rather sign Anibal at 5-6M.
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Not bringing Anibal back at that price point unless Teheran is moved for a savings of at least that much money.
 
Southcack77 said:
With relatively healthy season, probably about a 3 WAR guy with upside to return to 2016 performance.

If he struggles with injury again, probably something very similar to the 1.5 WAR guy he's been the last two years.

and always the chance he goes down for the season, I guess. I don't really follow his news to know exactly what he's been dealing with so maybe there are some big warnings signs. Dunno.

I don't see any particular reason to suspect any major decline from last season's numbers. In general, I think people over emphasize pitcher decline around here. It usually doesn't fall off a cliff and it's not apparent that is what is happening to Bum. The biggest risk here is that he's never going to be healthy again, which is very possible.

But if you are buying low, I don't see it is as particularly risky. Much like Donaldson, it's a big upside play that doesn't have a lot of downside. You should explore it.

I'm much less averse to pitching than this board seems to be. Particularly where there is no long term commitment.
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His injury in 2017 is what scares people, but it was just a grade 2 strain to his pitching shoulder and he hasn't had any issues with it since. Last year he took a comebacker off the hand and broke a the 5th metatarsel. I think most of his struggles have to do with not being consistently pitching during the season. I think if the Giants were smart, they'd gauge interest now and then gamble on selling him at the trade deadline. I personally think he has a great year next year after a normal offseason and preseason, which he hasn't had the last two years.
 
CrazyTrain said:
So.... Anibal has 3 consecutive horrible seasons... then one decent one... and it doesn't "look like a mirage".

Got it.
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he gave up the lowest percentage of hard contact last year...tells me it probably was not a fluke...he figured some out with the cutter, which allowed him to pitch inside to opposite handed hitters and set up his soft stuff away...sometimes you see those kinds of mid career adjustments
 
nsacpi said:
Regardless of what happens with Teheran, I'd take Anibal at 5-6M over Bumgarner.
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I'm certainly not banging the drum for a Bumgarner deal (especially if it would cost more than Fried and Allard), but if Julio's still here I have no interest in bringing Anibal back personally. Mirage or not, Anibal isn't exactly someone you'd feel that much more comfortable about running out there for a playoff start. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle in that area if you gave MadBum those playoff starts, maybe not - who knows???

If you're going to dedicate more salary to the rotation without going out and getting an Ace, I'd have more faith in Bumgarner than Sanchez even for more money - but that's just me.

If you're going to re-sign Anibal and have him and Julio at the back of the rotation, I'd just as soon spend that money on a pen piece and count on being able to cobble together similar production that you hope to get from Anibal from Touki/Soroka/Gohara/Wright as your #5.
 
clvclv said:
I'm certainly not banging the drum for a Bumgarner deal (especially if it would cost more than Fried and Allard), but if Julio's still here I have no interest in bringing Anibal back personally. Mirage or not, Anibal isn't exactly someone you'd feel that much more comfortable about running out there for a playoff start. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle in that area if you gave MadBum those playoff starts, maybe not - who knows???

If you're going to dedicate more salary to the rotation without going out and getting an Ace, I'd have more faith in Bumgarner than Sanchez even for more money - but that's just me.

If you're going to re-sign Anibal and have him and Julio at the back of the rotation, I'd just as soon spend that money on a pen piece and count on being able to cobble together similar production that you hope to get from Anibal from Touki/Soroka/Gohara/Wright as your #5.
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If Teheran is gone, then i'd bring Anibal back if he is cheap enough. Should give us a few quality starts through out the season, I wouldn't have him start in the post season. In the case being discussed, it'd be MadBum game 1, Folty game 2, Newk/Gausman game 3
 
nsacpi said:
he gave up the lowest percentage of hard contact last year...tells me it probably was not a fluke...he figured some out with the cutter, which allowed him to pitch inside to opposite handed hitters and set up his soft stuff away...sometimes you see those kinds of mid career adjustments
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FWIW, Steamer seems to be higher on Bumgarner than Anibal - whether he'd be worth the extra money plus the acquisition cost, who knows?

MadBum - 203 IP, 4.00 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 2.1 WAR
Anibal - 156 IP, 4.41 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, 1.6 WAR

Unless you upgrade the pen with the difference in salaries, the extra ~ 50 IP Steamer projects you'll get from Bumgarner could be fairly important - even without any postseason contribution factored in.
 
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