Braves sign Gavin Floyd 1 yr 4M + incentives
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
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zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
That would be fine. But my hunch is that Johnson is gonna be worse offensively than Gattis.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
I bet he gets on base more often.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Probably. I also bet that the 5 hitter typically sees more DP situations than the 6 hitter. And I think that Johnson is more of a threat of hitting into a DP than Gattis. I also think that regardless of OBP you should have your best hitters hitting as high up in the lineup as possible if CJ is one of our 3 worst hitters he should be hitting 6-8 regardless of one stat over another.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
So you think one of our best hitters in 2013 is going to be one of our worst in 2014? I sure hope you are wrong about that.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I think Johnson's BABiP is gonna come way down. For years where you're way up you're gonna have years where you're down. Not saying for sure that will be this year. But there's a very real chance he could not be great with the bat.
My guess is he's basically where Steamer/ZIPS has him at right around a .330 wOBA. Which largely is due to a slight up tick in Ks, and him losing 50 points off his BABIP which is likely.
If he has the same iso, K% and BB% he basically dropping from a .394 to his career BABIP which is likely higher than norm of .361 he loses 13 hits dropping his average from .321 to .296. Which is a big drop in offensive value. He'll still hit well but I think Gattis will hit better than that, at least I hope he will.
My guess is he's basically where Steamer/ZIPS has him at right around a .330 wOBA. Which largely is due to a slight up tick in Ks, and him losing 50 points off his BABIP which is likely.
If he has the same iso, K% and BB% he basically dropping from a .394 to his career BABIP which is likely higher than norm of .361 he loses 13 hits dropping his average from .321 to .296. Which is a big drop in offensive value. He'll still hit well but I think Gattis will hit better than that, at least I hope he will.
ChapelHillMatt
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
As long as Johnson uses the whole field, hits the ball where it's pitched, and has a high contact rate he's going to hit for a high average. It might not be .330 but he's going to hit. People predicted his regression last year and it never happened and the reason is because he has a good approach at the plate. Our young hitters could learn a lot from him.
I think he will hit more like he did in 2012. Still a good hitter but not great by any means. And I think JUP, Heyward, Freeman, and Gattis will be better then that. My only question is whether Simmons will be as I have high expectations for him.
And he did regress last year in the 2nd half. His babip was 415 in the first half with an average of 330. In the second half it dropped to a BABIP of 372 and an average of 311. In sept he had a BABIP of 338 with an average of 273. So yes he did regress. You just didn't think he did since his numbers at the start were that insane.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
That's more or less what I was getting at he'll be a good but not great hitter most likely. I'll give CJ credit he did improve many things lowering his K rate was huge and hopefully it stays down, his LD went up and his FB went down. So he is in a position to have a higher BABIP than in 2012 but not by a massive amount. I think he'll hit around .300, which is good. He'll be good offensively, I just think Gattis is better based on his skill set.
I also hope that Simmons busts out. Hopefully he goes to the cages with Johnson.
ChapelHillMatt
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
A 311 batting average is very good!!! I guess it depends on what you feel is regression. I guess technically you are right but people thought he was going to fall off significantly and it just didn't happen.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Yeah, he regressed. Like Ty Cobb. Pitiful.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Pseudoanalysis. His BABIP is going to go down 50 points. You know this how?
Because most people don't understand line drive % cj will always have a higher than normal babip but what we saw last year is unrepeatable. We did see that drop off towards the end of the year. Next year we will see around a 280-300 hitter with a passable walk rate and OK power. something you will obvuiusly take but we will have 4 hitters better than him guaranteed.
Gattis' average should be quite a bit higher then that. He had a really low BABIP in 2013 and one should expect that to be higher in 2014.
I'm thinking something like 268/322/510 - 832
Logic. 2013 is an outlier. His BABIP coming into 2013 was 347. I would expect something around that number in 2014. Not the near 400 that he had all of 2014.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
While it is likely that number will not remain that high, I think it is at least as logical that he has improved - in fact, he said so. I don't think that average will go all the way back down. Not with the amount of line drives I expect him to hit. He is special in that regard.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
But if he hits .300 he isn't as good of a player. Sure he's still solid but he doesnt have much power and doesn't walk at all. SO his .300 may be .300/.330/.440 which isn't better than gattis at say .260/.300/.500. That's my only contention. Not that Johnson will drop to being a terrible hitter, I just think Gattis is better. Zips, Steamer and Oliver do too. They all think Johnson will be good, but he won't be awesome.