Braves Sign Teheran to 6 year extension

[Heyward]

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.

7/44 is a bargain.

Again, look at the market for top SP's.

Say Teheran keeps progressing and hit the market in 5 years.

How much would he command, EASILY, EASILY 16-20+ mil a year.

His first 2 FA years with the option is 11 and 12 million for his age 29-30 seasons i believe.

That's a bargain.

The reason for this if he develops into an ace, he wont cost as much to extend and his arb years are cheaper than they would of been if he didnt get signed now.

Logic, try it.

The Freeman deal may indeed be an overpay but if they waited, they may of not been able to sign him.

For a mid-market team, this is something we need to do.

We cant go out there and get in a bidding war with the LA/NY/Philly type of markets who have unlimited spending on the top FA's.

7/44 for one of the top young pitchers in baseball is a bargain, no two ways around it.

 

[Heyward]

This is a good and valid point. We have been very, very good at developing good to great pitching for years from our farm system. It is something the Braves are very good at. We didn't really need to take on this added risk. We already had Teheran under team control for the next 5 years. This deal only adds two years to that, with solid raises guaranteed every year.

We still have Medlen for two more years, Minor for 4, Beachy for 3 and Wood for 6. Then we have Sims, Hursh and Graham along with several others that could replace them in the future at minimal cost. I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain, but I'm just not sure the potential reward outweighs the added risk.

Medlen may get dealt next winter, and will be 30 when he hits FA.

Wood's mechanics worry the crap out of me.

Beachy, yes, but while i think he may be fine its not a given.

Also, while we do have those, not a lock they develop.

Hursh and Graham are best suited in the bullpen imo, and Sims may replace Medlen in 2016.

 

[skillet]

Have we gotten the exact breakdown of the deal yet?

 

[thewupk]

Have we gotten the exact breakdown of the deal yet?

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.

 

[skillet]

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.

Thanks thewupk. How does the $1MM signing bonus, as well as Freddie's $2.875MM signing bonus, figure into their yearly salaries, at least as far as what the Braves have to count for each year? Perhaps spread evenly over the guaranteed years? If so, in Julio's case, since he has 6 guaranteed years, that would be $166,667/ year, so $967M this year, $1.167MM in 2015, etc?

 

[thewupk]

Thanks thewupk. How does the $1MM signing bonus, as well as Freddie's $2.875MM signing bonus, figure into their yearly salaries, at least as far as what the Braves have to count for each year? Perhaps spread evenly over the guaranteed years? If so, in Julio's case, since he has 6 guaranteed years, that would be $166,667/ year, so $967M this year, $1.167MM in 2015, etc?

I know signing bonuses can be spread across multiple years for luxury tax purposes. As for actual payroll I'm not sure. They get it paid upfront so it would come out of this years payroll I would assume.

 

[nsacpi]

Counting the bonuses to Teheran, Heyward and Freeman and assuming Floyd earns half his incentives and Kimbrel loses in arbitration payroll right now is $100M. I assume Wren is keeping some powder dry for mid-season moves.

 

[skillet]

I know signing bonuses can be spread across multiple years for luxury tax purposes. As for actual payroll I'm not sure. They get it paid upfront so it would come out of this years payroll I would assume.

What is the reason for the bonuses? Julio is going to get $800,000 this year plus receive the $1MM bonus upfront, so he will make $1.8MM this year, at least as far as he is concerned. I would assume the Braves want to give a $1MM bonus so that they don't have to count it all against this year. Freddie gets $5.125MM this year with a $2.875MM bonus. Effectively he gets $8MM this year in his pocket, but I guess the Braves can spread that bonus out over I think up to the total amount of guaranteed years for bookkeeping purposes.

 

[nsacpi]

What is the reason for the bonuses? Julio is going to get $800,000 this year plus receive the $1MM bonus upfront, so he will make $1.8MM this year, at least as far as he is concerned. I would assume the Braves want to give a $1MM bonus so that they don't have to count it all against this year. Freddie gets $5.125MM this year with a $2.875MM bonus. Effectively he gets $8MM this year in his pocket, but I guess the Braves can spread that bonus out over I think up to the total amount of guaranteed years for bookkeeping purposes.

Actually the Braves may want to shift some payroll to 2014 since the real crunch is in 2015. To the extent they have accounting discretion I think they will count the bonuses against 2014 payroll.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.

'
It is a discount. Look at the deals guys like Scott Feldman got ($30M for 3 years) and the deal Bronson Arroyo just got. Julio is a much better pitcher than both of them and much younger too.

 

[weso1]

Those of you who say there is not discount in this deal are incorrect. There is a discount imo. It's a potential discount. Whilest the Braves are clearly taking risk here, so is Teheran. You see it's very possible that at the end of his arby years he could be worth much more than 12 mil per year. This is where the potential discount lies for the Braves. At the end of Teheran's arby the Braves could have a major bargain. The Braves signed him to now dollars for a two or even third free agent starter. This is why they did the deal. The potential discount. At 35 million it's relatively not that much of a risk. It's better than signing Trout for 300 million for example. Now that is a risk.

 

[clvclv]

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.

Link?

That only comes up to $31.4 million IF you include the signing bonus.

(Nevermind - the extra $1 million is the option. Don't do ESPN, sorry.)

 

[thewupk]

Link?

That only comes up to $31.4 million IF you include the signing bonus.

It was in the ESPN article about it.

I'm guessing the extra million would include the buyout for the club option. So it is 32.4 in guaranteed money.

 

[thethe]

Thought this was a great stat:

Tehearns strikeout to walk ratio of 3.78 to 1 last season ranked as the ninth-best season among those who qualified for the ERA title at age 22 or younger in baseball’s live ball era (since 1920).

 

[jpx7]

Wood really intrigues me

 

[jpx7]

I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

 

[Hawk]

(except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer)

Hear, hear.

 

[Julio3000]

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

Yeah, I think that's it. Teheran's is more of a high-risk/high-reward proposition than doing a deal with one of the other starters would be. I think Wren wasn't just blowing smoke when he talked about how high the organization is on him. I think they're confident that it's going to be a winner, for what that's worth.

Freddie was a beast in 2013, but I can't say that I am quite as sanguine about his upside as some are. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

[Heyward]

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

They tried to extend him after 2012 but they werent close to what he and his reps were asking.

Takes two to tango.

 

[jason27nc]

I like it. I would much rather them spend it on a guy like this than some broken down veteran like Lowe or Hampton. I liked those guys but we wrapped way to much money into them IMO.