Braves sniffing around on Yelich, Realmuto

From a strategic point of view, the types of players we should be targeting in trades should be good players (2-4 win players) on contracts that don't have much surplus value. Why should we do this? Here are the reasons:

1) Those kinds of trades won't gut the farm system and substantially narrow our window for contending.

2) We have fairly significant amounts of payroll flexibility starting next off season, which we can exploit by making those kinds of trades.

3) Trading for those kinds of players with 2-3 years left on their contracts allows us to avoid the risks associated with major free agent signings where the contracts typically run 5+ years.

4) As a corollary to item #3, taking on significant contracts at a 2-3 year horizon will leave us well positioned to hold on to our core homegrown players as they become more expensive.

I don't expect the front office to make any major moves the rest of this off-season. I hope they keep the considerations listed above in mind when they make moves at the trade deadline and next off-season.

Of course if we can get a great deal on a player that doesn't meet the above considerations (like Yelich for example) we should do it. But color me a skeptic about the prospects of such a deal materializing.
 
Always amusing to read expert commentary about "what it would take" to get x player. Seriously is anybody here really that connected to know what other teams have and are offering? Until you know that, don't default that acquiring Yelich is equivalent of emptying the farm system.
 
I'm really getting a vibe that Yelich has a good chance of happening. DOB and Bowman really seem to be mentioning the Braves interest in him quite a bit. The best case scenario, imo is to do what nscaipscnpi suggested which is to try to get him at close to market fiscal value by taking on bad contracts.
 
nsacpi said:
From a strategic point of view, the types of players we should be targeting in trades should be good players (2-4 win players) on contracts that don't have much surplus value. Why should we do this? Here are the reasons:

1) Those kinds of trades won't gut the farm system and substantially narrow our window for contending.

2) We have fairly significant amounts of payroll flexibility starting next off season, which we can exploit by making those kinds of trades.

3) Trading for those kinds of players with 2-3 years left on their contracts allows us to avoid the risks associated with major free agent signings where the contracts typically run 5+ years.

4) As a corollary to item #3, taking on significant contracts at a 2-3 year horizon will leave us well positioned to hold on to our core homegrown players as they become more expensive.

I don't expect the front office to make any major moves the rest of this off-season. I hope they keep the considerations listed above in mind when they make moves at the trade deadline and next off-season.

Of course if we can get a great deal on a player that doesn't meet the above considerations (like Yelich for example) we should do it. But color me a skeptic about the prospects of such a deal materializing.
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any examples of this person? 2-4 win guys are usually paid or young guys who have a lot of surplus value.
 
Enscheff said:
Yelich has upwards of $120M in surplus value, but given the unimpressive return they got for Ozuna I imagine offers totaling ~$100M could be plausible.

So take Yelich’s value and subtract the negative value of someone like Prado, Chen or Tazawa, and you have the value of the package overall. However, I find it extremely unlikely the Braves went to all that trouble to rid themselves of Kemp’s money in 2019 only to take on other bad money in 2019. Maybe Prado is an exception to that though.

Approximate value of the Braves prospects not named Albies or Acuna:

Wright $35M

Gohara $35M

Allard $25M

Soroka $25M

Newk $20M

Anderson $20M

Fried $20M

Pache $20M

Riley $15M

Wentz $15M

Add them up any way you want, but it is very unlikely the Marlins trade Yelich without getting at least 2 FV 55 guys as the centerpiece.

A trade for Yelich almost has to coincide with the Braves trading Markakis and/or Teheran to free up salary to take bad money from Miami. The cost in prospects is likely too steep otherwise.

It also likely requires the Marlins overvaluing MLB ready pitchers like Newk, Fried or Sims as a substantial part of the return. I could see the Braves selling high on Camargo as well if the Marlins are fans of his.

Having said all that, AA might very well be cooking up something none of us even imagined that gets Yelich to Atlanta.
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So my deal works:

But I think we can do wright allard pache Riley and another pitcher.

I had a deal in the 110 million range. I think we would add in some MLB filler like Sims, Blair, etc.

I do not see us taking on dead money this year with the Kemp deal.

I do think there is a possibility that if they get this deal done they hold off and AA goes crazy on the other end moving Ender, Neck, Tehran, and Flowers. I bet he looks to do that to restock the farm and free up money.
 
Russ2dollas said:
any examples of this person? 2-4 win guys are usually paid or young guys who have a lot of surplus value.
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Guys who have signed free agents contracts in recent years, including possibly some of the ones who are signing this off-season.

On the pitching side it would include Greinke, Cueto, Samardzija.

On the hitting side maybe Moustakas next off-season or guys like Cespedes and Upton.

Plus there are the younger players hitting their arb years. Examples would be Eugenio Sanchez, Kepler, Happ. Those have more surplus value and would cost more in way of prospects. But not as much as someone like Yelich. Ozuna would have been a great target if we were a little closer to our window.
 
Russ2dollas said:
So my deal works:
But I think we can do wright allard pache Riley and another pitcher.

I had a deal in the 110 million range. I think we would add in some MLB filler like Sims, Blair, etc.

I do not see us taking on dead money this year with the Kemp deal.

I do think there is a possibility that if they get this deal done they hold off and AA goes crazy on the other end moving Ender, Neck, Tehran, and Flowers. I bet he looks to do that to restock the farm and free up money.
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I get that the Marlins have taken less and we will try for less. I also think the Marlins will want to "win the press conference" for these guys.

We will try to throw MLB ready guys like Newk, Fried and Sims at them. Marlins can talk about them being ready now and their prospect pedigree as first round guys. Maybe we can sell high on Comargo. I do think they'll need Pache as the Yelich of the future. I HATE moving Pache b/c I think he's going to make a huge jump this year. But you can't get something for nothing... They will need Anderson or Wright to be the big chip and instantly be the number one guy in their system. Then you build it out. Maybe they'd like the distraction of including guys like Blair, Wisler, Peterson and Demeritte to make the haul look big.

Maybe you can sell high on Jackson as the Realmuto replacement. Maybe they'd value him in the 15-20 milion area.
 
nsacpi said:
A fair trade for Yellich is Wright, Soroka and Pache.
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I love Wright, but you'd still have Gohara, Newk, Wentz, Wilson, Wiegel, Allard and Anderson as far as pitching, and could use #8 on a SP to develop/and or to replace what was given away.
 
Russ2dollas said:
So my deal works:
But I think we can do wright allard pache Riley and another pitcher.

I had a deal in the 110 million range. I think we would add in some MLB filler like Sims, Blair, etc.

I do not see us taking on dead money this year with the Kemp deal.

I do think there is a possibility that if they get this deal done they hold off and AA goes crazy on the other end moving Ender, Neck, Tehran, and Flowers. I bet he looks to do that to restock the farm and free up money.
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I disgaree that we cannot take on money because of shedding Kemp's salary. I think that was to shed salary, not to go in to next offseason spending a ton of money on free agents. That's no AA's style. It's just a slikely he takes on salary.

I do agree that if we were to make a trade for Yelich/Realmuto that it would defeinitely lead to trading Nick and Flowers for obvious reasons and could possibly even mean trading Ender.

If we add in Yelich ($7M) Realmuto ($4M) and Chen ($8M) and we trade Nick (-$8M assuming we eat 2.5M) Ender (-$4.7M) and Flowers (-$4M) we're only taking on 2.3M in 2018 not counting whatever we get in return for Ender and Flowers if they are major league players or not.

Doing the same thing and keeping Ender we only take on $7M.
 
Hypothetical question for the board.

Would you rather keep Gohara or Wright in a scenario like this? I think most would say Gohara, but I think I'd lean towards keeping Wright.
 
I’m assuming Gohara’s value is higher since he’s big league ready, so I would likely prefer to trade him. While I like Gohara, I think it’s more likely that his value is a little inflated based off last season.
 
Chico said:
Hypothetical question for the board.

Would you rather keep Gohara or Wright in a scenario like this? I think most would say Gohara, but I think I'd lean towards keeping Wright.
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Gohara. Not close for me.
 
nsacpi said:
Gohara. Not close for me.
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Agreed on this. Lots of indication that he will be a TOR pitcher. To be able to maintain that velcoity/command into the late innings is a skill only a handful of pitchers have.
 
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