Braves\Stanks 3\5 105PM
- Thread starter Tapate50
- Start date
striker42
Well-known member
11 K/9 in 120 IP at A+/AA is reason to take note but there are plenty of ways that a pitcher can do that while not having what it takes to do well in the majors.
You see this from time to time with pitchers with big curveballs. The curve might not be tight enough with the spin to get the break necessary to fool major leaguers yet still dominate minor league hitters. So it's entirely possible that Anderson is leaning on his curve to rack up the K's against minor league players whose inability to hit breaking balls will doom their careers. All the while that curve not being good enough to carry him in the majors.
This is why, like you, I'm very anxious to see the statcast data on a statistically significant sample size. If his curve is legit, he could build a very good major league career on it. If it's a loopy curve without the spin and break you want, then he could be a marginal player. Just not enough data right now to make a call.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I might lean to trade him before we get too much data on Anderson
msstate7
Well-known member
Surely mlb team have some sort of statcast info for milb players. I'm guessing, but I wouldn't think AA gets his first look at Anderson's stuff when he debuts
striker42
Well-known member
I'm sure we have that data on him. Not sure other teams do. Also, some teams dont rely on that data as much yet (cough Marlin's cough).
If AA has data showing Anderson's curve isn't great, he needs to shop him hard now.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
This is my thought. It is easier to have data on your own guys but there is just too many players and teams to have a huge repository of data. I am sure being a top prospect there are scouts at his games. But even still the data is probably not a large sampling. If the Braves know his stuff is Allard like and they don’t trade him then just another failure by this front office imo.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I wish Druw had played in the Statcast era.
I told wupk I would have liked to have seen Eddie Perez in statcast era too.
I know Maddux was a god with control, but Eddie Perez's pitch framing was damn near perfect. There had to be some times when Eddie stole strikes on behalf of Greg too. Greg always said he liked the way Eddie received versus Javy. Half the equation is Eddie doesn't have to move his glove because of Greg, the other half is Eddie framing it as good as anyone I've ever seen. Mac was rated one of the best pitch framers too in the early 2010's before he left us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTSZ9xbD4JM
In all seriousness....how much does Pache have to hit...to equal Ender’s production?
I feel Ender and probably Newk are the best expendable MLB trade chips we have. Making a deal around the deadline might be the perfect timing....before Ender forgets how to hit singles or Newk walks two per inning.
Would of had a decent shot at winning a couple of MVPs
I know Pache is all world defensively but I'd have a hard time saying he's currently better than Ender out there without actually getting data. Ender and Cain are about as good as it gets in center right now. Maybe Pache is the next Andruw or Simmons but until he shows that I will say at best he's what Ender currently provides. So since that's the case he would need an OPS in the low 700s. Considering he has a career 707 OPS in the minors I don't see him equaling Ender anytime soon.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Newk we have replacements for. Fans wanna get rid of Ender for some reason. He's on a great contract, durable, team leader, and as good as it gets defensively in center. If Pache shows he can rake, we can have this discussion in a year. But right now, Ender deserves to start 140+. His spot in the lineup, now thats another discussion.
Ender was pretty much an all glove 3 win guy last year.
7.4 UZR/150 over 1341 innings in CF, plus 6.1 runs for running the bases, plus a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than MLB average hitting) equaled 2.9 WAR.
If we are going to assume Pache is equivalent to Ender on the bases (a generous assumption), but not as good on the bases as peak Billy Hamilton (no doubt the best base runner of this generation), then we are looking at trading offense for defense.
Something like 2014 Billy Hamilton is the only ~3 win season I can find that is even more all glove no bat than Ender's 2018. He produced a 79 wRC+, elite base running value, and the 5th most valuable CF season defensively over the last 5 years.
Pache is certainly not the base runner Hamilton was. While he may be better in CF than Ender, I doubt he will consistently be able to post defensive seasons appreciably better than what Ender has been doing.
To get 3 wins with better than Ender defense, he will need a wRC+ of 85-90. A low power wRC+ of 85 is something like .250/.300/.380. Something like Freddy Galvis or Amed Rosario from last year.
I’m not really saying Pache is ready now. I do believe he could be ready by the deadline if there was a big trade involving Ender.
Ender plays with a ton of heart and I like him. If Waters and Pache keep improving...moving him while he has contract years left would not be such a bad thing.
Ender plays with a ton of heart and I like him. If Waters and Pache keep improving...moving him while he has contract years left would not be such a bad thing.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The reason to consider trading Ender is that his value comes almost entirely from his defensive skills and he has now reached the age at which defensive skills on average tend to start to show pretty significant decline.
And of course, he's also reached the point at which offensive skills often to start to decline.
Maybe he ages gracefully, but he's probably not going to be a plus-plus center fielder when the Braves guarantee expires.
Once he's not a plus-plus defender, he's a fourth OF or possibly worse. The Braves aren't the kind of team that needs to be paying its backup OFs 8m dollars, based on recent payrolls anyway.
While the Braves do not have any immediate options for replacing him internally in the OF, I nonetheless think that Ender should be very available in trade discussions if someone has an interest. If the Braves fall out of contention, he's honestly one of the first guys they should consider moving.
And of course, he's also reached the point at which offensive skills often to start to decline.
Maybe he ages gracefully, but he's probably not going to be a plus-plus center fielder when the Braves guarantee expires.
Once he's not a plus-plus defender, he's a fourth OF or possibly worse. The Braves aren't the kind of team that needs to be paying its backup OFs 8m dollars, based on recent payrolls anyway.
While the Braves do not have any immediate options for replacing him internally in the OF, I nonetheless think that Ender should be very available in trade discussions if someone has an interest. If the Braves fall out of contention, he's honestly one of the first guys they should consider moving.
Southcack77
Well-known member
My personal suspicion is that teams do not perceive his contract as having all that much surplus value. I suspect that there might be some teams that would be interested in his present defensive value and not be as concerned about taking a hit on him being an expensive bench piece later.
Honestly, maybe the Braves are in that situation now.
You put johan in LF and play Acuna in CF for one season.
You always want to trade a player a year early instead of a year late. With that being said the reasons being mentioned in favor or trading Ender are true. How many more years will he be able to maintain a 90+ WRC+ while being an elite defender in center? That's a valid concern for the Braves and other teams as well. As Southcrack alluded too, other teams are aware of this and for the most part aren't dumb anymore. They would see the risk of Ender quickly being relegated to a 4th OF if anything falls off from his current level. So even with his cheap contract I don't think he's going to carry a lot of surplus value.
A team trading for Ender would do so for his current value which as of right now should be ~3 WAR. The Braves do need that production as well as they are trying to contend. So I really don't see Ender being traded unless the Braves really fall out of it and a team in need of a CF is desperate at the deadline.
A team trading for Ender would do so for his current value which as of right now should be ~3 WAR. The Braves do need that production as well as they are trying to contend. So I really don't see Ender being traded unless the Braves really fall out of it and a team in need of a CF is desperate at the deadline.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Just replying because I find nothing in particular to disagree with.
This mean you are probably wrong, I'm afraid.