Braves Trade Heyward, Walden to Cardinals for Miller and Tyrell Jenkins

I would happily pay Heyward 16 million/year over the next 10 years, but we know that wasn't happening. I think it's pretty clear that his agent told the Braves it's going to take this much (let's say 220 million) or we're going to free agency. Why should the Braves keep him around next year then just lose him when some team foolishly overspends to sign him, like it happens with every big name free agent?
 
Anyone in their right mind would not hesitate to give Jason 16 mil per for 7-10. Clearly that wasn't an option.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next-contract/

Since it’s the closest match, let’s deal with the Crawford comparison for now, and we’ll circle back to the others in a minute. Crawford hit the market after his age-28 season and signed a seven year deal for $142 million, which is in line with what several people in the comments suggested they think Heyward should sign for. Only $142 million in 2010 is not the same thing as $142 million in 2014. If we think Crawford is a good stand-in for Heyward’s market value, then we have to bring Crawford’s value into present day dollars. Actually, we have to bring them into 2015 dollars, since that’s when Heyward is hitting free agency, so Heyward will hit the open market with five years of inflation between his deal and Crawford’s contract with Boston.

Rather than turn this into another post about the different ways of calculating the market price of a win, let’s just take the simple route and look at the total spending differences in MLB payrolls during that time. Crawford’s deal began in 2011, when the total of all 30 MLB payrolls was $2.78 billion. Last year, MLB was at $3.45 billion, and they’re already at $3.1 billion for 2015 without including any of the free agent contracts. 2015 league payrolls are going to end up around $3.7 billion or so, most likely, so the league will have seen roughly 37 percent more money going to players since Crawford’s deal was signed.

If you simply scale Crawford’s annual salary to match current spending levels, his $20 million AAV becomes $25 million to keep pace with inflation. If we assume that he’d be able to command the same contract length, Crawford’s inflation-adjusted price becomes 7/$175M. And Crawford was selling his 29-35 seasons; Heyward is going to be three year’s younger than Crawford was when he hit the open market, and very likely will have little interest in a seven year deal. If we’re going to use Crawford as an example of Heyward’s market value, then we essentially have to admit that Crawford is evidence that Heyward is likely to land a deal in excess of $200 million as a free agent, even if he just takes the same inflation-adjusted AAV and adds an extra year.
 
yeezus said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next-contract/

Since it’s the closest match, let’s deal with the Crawford comparison for now, and we’ll circle back to the others in a minute. Crawford hit the market after his age-28 season and signed a seven year deal for $142 million, which is in line with what several people in the comments suggested they think Heyward should sign for. Only $142 million in 2010 is not the same thing as $142 million in 2014. If we think Crawford is a good stand-in for Heyward’s market value, then we have to bring Crawford’s value into present day dollars. Actually, we have to bring them into 2015 dollars, since that’s when Heyward is hitting free agency, so Heyward will hit the open market with five years of inflation between his deal and Crawford’s contract with Boston.

Rather than turn this into another post about the different ways of calculating the market price of a win, let’s just take the simple route and look at the total spending differences in MLB payrolls during that time. Crawford’s deal began in 2011, when the total of all 30 MLB payrolls was $2.78 billion. Last year, MLB was at $3.45 billion, and they’re already at $3.1 billion for 2015 without including any of the free agent contracts. 2015 league payrolls are going to end up around $3.7 billion or so, most likely, so the league will have seen roughly 37 percent more money going to players since Crawford’s deal was signed.

If you simply scale Crawford’s annual salary to match current spending levels, his $20 million AAV becomes $25 million to keep pace with inflation. If we assume that he’d be able to command the same contract length, Crawford’s inflation-adjusted price becomes 7/$175M. And Crawford was selling his 29-35 seasons; Heyward is going to be three year’s younger than Crawford was when he hit the open market, and very likely will have little interest in a seven year deal. If we’re going to use Crawford as an example of Heyward’s market value, then we essentially have to admit that Crawford is evidence that Heyward is likely to land a deal in excess of $200 million as a free agent, even if he just takes the same inflation-adjusted AAV and adds an extra year.
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They go on to say he will probably land in the 225-250 mill range by their estimates.

Crawford deal seems like a decent comp, but he was better with the bat. A bit older though... not that it makes his deal look any better in retrospect. LA would send him over here paid up if we sent them a pitcher back.
 
Hawk said:
Apologies if this has already been posted, just came across it;


Tyrell's arm action that kinda reminds me of Tom Gordon.
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I was going to say he reminds me of a right handed Dontrelle Willis, but that made me feel like a racist so I didn't. Nice job by you of comparing to a black pitcher as well.
 
Tapate50 said:
They go on to say he will probably land in the 225-250 mill range by their estimates.

Crawford deal seems like a decent comp, but he was better with the bat. A bit older though... not that it makes his deal look any better in retrospect. LA would send him over here paid up if we sent them a pitcher back.
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I wouldn't necessairly say that. Crawford as a hitter had a WRC+ in the 110-120 range for most of his career in Tampa. His last two years saw him at 120 and 134 which were both career highs. Heyward has a career WRC+ of 117 and I personally see him as a WRC+ 120 hitter as he was in 2012 and 2013. So outside of his last yer in Tampa he didn't hit better than Jason has to this point. And I think most people at the time knew that was a career year offensively and he's shown that with what he's done since then.
 
thewupk said:
I wouldn't necessairly say that. Crawford as a hitter had a WRC+ in the 110-120 range for most of his career in Tampa. His last two years saw him at 120 and 134 which were both career highs. Heyward has a career WRC+ of 117 and I personally see him as a WRC+ 120 hitter as he was in 2012 and 2013. So outside of his last yer in Tampa he didn't hit better than Jason has to this point. And I think most people at the time knew that was a career year offensively and he's shown that with what he's done since then.
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Yeah, stay injured.
 
Money, money, money. That's the major reason why Heyward is gone. Modern baseball: say one thing and do another. That's why Glavine left. Chipper got paid well but took less and stayed in Atlanta. For probably $16 million a year (I'm guessing) he could have stayed but his agent and he wanted an extra $6 million a year so he's gone. What do you need an extra $6 million for that you cannot already buy with ]$16 million?!?!?!?. Money, money, money....
 
yeezus said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next-contract/

Since it’s the closest match, let’s deal with the Crawford comparison for now, and we’ll circle back to the others in a minute. Crawford hit the market after his age-28 season and signed a seven year deal for $142 million, which is in line with what several people in the comments suggested they think Heyward should sign for. Only $142 million in 2010 is not the same thing as $142 million in 2014. If we think Crawford is a good stand-in for Heyward’s market value, then we have to bring Crawford’s value into present day dollars. Actually, we have to bring them into 2015 dollars, since that’s when Heyward is hitting free agency, so Heyward will hit the open market with five years of inflation between his deal and Crawford’s contract with Boston.

Rather than turn this into another post about the different ways of calculating the market price of a win, let’s just take the simple route and look at the total spending differences in MLB payrolls during that time. Crawford’s deal began in 2011, when the total of all 30 MLB payrolls was $2.78 billion. Last year, MLB was at $3.45 billion, and they’re already at $3.1 billion for 2015 without including any of the free agent contracts. 2015 league payrolls are going to end up around $3.7 billion or so, most likely, so the league will have seen roughly 37 percent more money going to players since Crawford’s deal was signed.

If you simply scale Crawford’s annual salary to match current spending levels, his $20 million AAV becomes $25 million to keep pace with inflation. If we assume that he’d be able to command the same contract length, Crawford’s inflation-adjusted price becomes 7/$175M. And Crawford was selling his 29-35 seasons; Heyward is going to be three year’s younger than Crawford was when he hit the open market, and very likely will have little interest in a seven year deal. If we’re going to use Crawford as an example of Heyward’s market value, then we essentially have to admit that Crawford is evidence that Heyward is likely to land a deal in excess of $200 million as a free agent, even if he just takes the same inflation-adjusted AAV and adds an extra year.
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Fair points. But Heyward has never put up the offensive numbers Crawford put up the two years before he signed his deal.
 
weso1 said:
I was going to say he reminds me of a right handed Dontrelle Willis, but that made me feel like a racist so I didn't. Nice job by you of comparing to a black pitcher as well.
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He appears to have better control than Oil Can Boyd.
 
Almost 72 hours later and still...

tumblr_n7uev4Y2KD1s6w6foo1_500.gif
 
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