This isn't I told you so mode yet, this is 24 months of holding in my hatred for the pick combined with a tolerance break from weed.
I will follow through if I am wrong but let's make sure the terms are clear. It has to be for the Braves as a SP. I am going to define the half as the all star break although I know that's not exactly half. Minimum 15 starts in the first half or 14 starts in the second half. I will give him credit if he say spends the first 2 weeks in the minors because we dont need a 5th starter for the first 2 weeks or missed only 1 or so starts in a half. Since I am the only o e with skin in this bet I am also going to say ERA and FIP under 4. Not going to use xFIP as that almost always seems higher than FIP and ERA.
I love the Braves far more than I like being right. So best of luck to him. If you want a statistical analysis as to why he sucks I can do that it just wont be right now.
Edit- and just to show you that I am more than willing to admit when I am wrong. I liked when we signed Melvin. Feel free to have fun with that.