Braves vs Astros Preview

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG has a decent primer out on this matchup.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-series-preview-baseball-hotbeds-clash-in-astros-braves-title-bout/

Let's dig into the stats a little more to see what insights we can gain.

First let's look at the Braves offense vs the Astros pitching.

Braves hitters' 2019-2021 xwOBA (vs RHP/vs LHP) because these are the guys who are going to bat, no matter what:

Soler (.371/.378)
Freeman (.427/.377)
Albies (.321/.378)
Riley (.353/.316)
Rosario (.328/.297)
Duvall (.327/.334)
Pederson (.344/.297)
TDA (.332/.355)
Swanson (.337/.356)

So we can pretty clearly see why the top of the order has settled as Soler/Freeman/Albies and Riley. It should undoubtedly go back to this alignment in the WS.

The key for the Astros will be to make the Braves lineup face LHP in the most crucial spots. We saw the lack of LHPs cause the Dodgers trouble, and the Braves will pose the same problem for the Astros pitching staff.

The answer for the Astros will be Blake Taylor and Brooks Raley, a pair of LHPs with xwOBA vs LHHs of .225 the last 3 seasons. It will be imperative that Snit doesn't allow Baker to neuter the lineup for multiple innings with those 2 arms.

The Astros lineup will shape up roughly as follows (vs RHP/vs LHP):

Altuve (.312/.361)
Brantley (.365/.317)
Bregman (.345/.369)
Alvarez (.401/.381)
Correa (.361/.366)
Tucker (.363/.389)
Gurriel (.312/.334)
McCormick (.317.295)
Maldonado (.279/.293)

There's really nowhere to go in this lineup to find platoon advantages after the top 2 spots. Why those guys hit up there is beyond me, but I'm guessing something about having an ancient Bakersaurus filling out the lineup card is the reason.

So in big spots, don't let Altuve face a LHP, and don't let Brantley face a RHP. I expect to see the bulk of the BP moves revolve around being able to make a pitching change between Altuve and Brantley PAs. For example, a RHP vs 8-9-1, so a LHP can face 2-3-4. This should be very easy for Snit to manage.

Other than that, the best arms on the Braves roster are simply going to have to get the job done vs this excellent lineup, and they can go to McCormick/Maldonado for an out in big spots if needed...so don't let Tucker and/or Gurriel beat them.
 
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The Batting order for us will be interesting in Games 1-2. The DH keeps Snit from having to sit one of the 4 OFs. I'm assuming Soler is the DH and we run the same defensive lineup that we used in the NLCS. The numbers say to bat Soler in #1 spot, but I have a feeling we roll Rosario there until someone show they can get him out in the postseason.

I'd consider going:
1. Rosario
2. Freeman
3. Soler
4. Riley
5. Albies
6. Duvall
7. Pederson
8. d'Arnaud
9. Swanson

That doesn't stack too many of the split heavy guys. I feel like Pederson may be 6th though.

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Looking at their pitching, the entire starting staff has a higher FIP than I expected when I pulled up the stats... it explains the playoff runs allowed this year. I actually feel way better about the matchup than I did before looking at the numbers. No McCullers actually gives us a big pitching advantage.

If we can go through like the NLCS and only use Smith, Matzek, Minter, Chavez, And Jackson if he's not broken. Maybe Smyly if we can squeeze 3 borderline innings out of him.

4 wins = 36 Innings find a way. (It would be nice if Morton or Fried could give us 7 good ones one time this post season.)
 
One thing that helps us - Kyle Tucker is the only Astros player with double-digit steals. Hopefully they still won't be running much with d'Arnaud turning so many singles/walks into doubles against LA.
 
Does anyone have an idea when the WS Rosters will be announced?

EDIT: Apparently right about the time I posted this.

RHP: Anderson, Chavez, Jackson, Martin, Morton, Wright

LHP: Fried, Lee, Matzek, Minter, Smith, Smyly

C: Contreras, d'Arnaud

INF: Adrianza, Albies, Arcia, Freeman, Riley, Swanson

OF: Duvall, Gore, Heredia, Pederson, Rosario, Soler
 
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Wright is more useful than Webb. If we have a blowout either way he can eat 4 innings to save the rest of the pen.

Gore is more useful than Carmago since Carmago is intent on batting .000
 
CJC said:
Wright is more useful than Webb. If we have a blowout either way he can eat 4 innings to save the rest of the pen.

Gore is more useful than Carmago since Carmago is intent on batting .000
Click to expand...

due is going to go 0 for the season and end up with a ring. lmao
 
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