Braves ZiPs Projections

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG has finally posted their ZiPS projections for the Braves. After taking a bit of a dig at the team for not bottoming out payroll during the rebuild, they came out with some pretty optimistic projections:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/

Gohara is a stud. Teheran has a nice bounce back. Folty is still frustrating. The rotation is projected for 10+ WAR, which is solidly league average.

ZiPs still loves Inciarte, though I'll take the over on most of Freeman's stats. They think Albies is good (duh). Acuna makes an immediate impact. Swanson bounces back to be an average MLB SS.

The depth chart graphic shows what we all know already...the Braves are a 3B and LFer away from being competitive.
 
Add up the numbers in the depth chart graphic, add 1-2 wins for Flowers' framing, and ZiPS is projecting the Braves to resemble a .500 team as currently constructed.

It's a shame they don't have the cash to add Frazier and someone like Ozuna. Those moves would have increased the projections to ~85 wins and made them a fairly serious WC contender in 2018. There's always 2019!
 
Enscheff said:
Add up the numbers in the depth chart graphic, add 1-2 wins for Flowers' framing, and ZiPS is projecting the Braves to resemble a .500 team as currently constructed.

It's a shame they don't have the cash to add Frazier and someone like Ozuna. Those moves would have increased the projections to ~85 wins and made them a fairly serious WC contender in 2018. There's always 2019!
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I've always thought 2019 was the year and I suppose AA feels the same way since he moved Kemp to make more cash available then. The plan is to hope the young guys keep improving and establish themselves in certain cases and then fill in needs via FA/trade. We'll have the payroll and prospect capital to make a contending team next year.
 
.500 sounds about right

refreshing to have gone through an off-season without spin about being the girl everyone wants to dance with...and I haven't heard gold standard franchise in a while...#thankful
 
nsacpi said:
.500 sounds about right

refreshing to have gone through an off-season without spin about being the girl everyone wants to dance with...and I haven't heard gold standard franchise in a while...#thankful
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.500 seems a bit optimistic to me, but it definitely a plausible outcome.

I think .500 should be the goal for this team.
 
I think there are too many question marks to pencil this team in as a .500 team at this point. If a lot of things go right, I could see that happening, but I'm just not there yet.
 
Chico said:
I don't think anyone is
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If Ruiz is a 1 WAR player at 3B that would make him our best post Chipper 3B since BABIP Johnson's one season...right? I'd take one WAR from Ruiz if he plays there. I'm still riding hard for the 2 year FA 3B with an option or two. Moose having draft pick comp on him really hurts that option.

I still think the Braves have some money. Liberty coughed up the money for Santana when they had to. I just hope the Braves aren't so cheap trying to take advantage of the market. Get a reasonable deal and do not sign any of these guys for more than 3 years.

If the Brewers are going all in then Tehran really makes sense for them and maybe that moves some money we need for a 3B.

I think I'd pick 75 wins for the team. However if the Marlins are truely terrible and the Philies and Mets are not better than last year then maybe we schedule our way into 80.
 
So glad someone created a spreadsheet to tell us what we already knew. When will they provide one that tells us the world isn't flat so we can feel better about things???
 
clvclv said:
So glad someone created a spreadsheet to tell us what we already knew. When will they provide one that tells us the world isn't flat so we can feel better about things???
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Would you like to see the spreadsheet that predicted the Braves wouldn’t be able to trade MAdams for Odorizzi?

Since you thought that trade made “too much sense not to happen”, you could probably use all the info you can get.
 
clvclv said:
So glad someone created a spreadsheet to tell us what we already knew. When will they provide one that tells us the world isn't flat so we can feel better about things???
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Uhhhhh Id love to compare the spreadsheets to your predictions over the past few years.

I think you've been wrong and mocked so much you're starting to get more reasonable lately. Good for you
 
Newcomb's projection isn't bad. If he were to pitch like that he'd be a league average starter which is respectable. Again, the only thing holding him back is walks. If he could get those even slightly under control then he could absolutely explode.

I think this is the year we pull the plug on Wisler. I could see him getting traded in early on (maybe even ST) for a marginal return.
 
striker42 said:
I think this is the year we pull the plug on Wisler. I could see him getting traded in early on (maybe even ST) for a marginal return.
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As bad as he's been it's probably too late to get anything of value in a trade for him. I expect he is among the next few to be DFA'd at some point when 40-man roster spots are needed.
 
Braves1976 said:
As bad as he's been it's probably too late to get anything of value in a trade for him. I expect he is among the next few to be DFA'd at some point when 40-man roster spots are needed.
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The most we'd get for him would be a AAA catcher or 25 year old A ball reliever. Trading him would be a glorified DFA.
 
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