Bud Norris and the Other Short-Term Trade Assets

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Most of the trade discussion has been centering on Teheran and Vizcaino.

But we also have a slew of other assets that could potentially be moved at the deadline. Given his recent success in the rotation, Bud Norris might be the most interesting one. He has a bit of a pedigree having generated WAR in the 1.5-2.5 range during the 2010-2014 period, before having a poor injury-riddled season last year. His performance this year is probably best viewed as a return to his 2010-2014 baseline.

It is not unrealistic to project that he will generate 1.0-1.5 WAR the rest of this year. Pair him up with another asset (such as Jim Johnson) and the overall value bumps up to close to 2 WAR. Assuming we are operating in a seller's market, I don't think it is unrealistic to think that a package of Norris and Johnson or some similar other combination could generate a return with a surplus value in the 2.5-3 WAR range.

So what kind of asset has that kind of value. It would probably not be a player who is on a Top 100 list of all prospects, but someone who gets some consideration for those lists. For a weak farm system, it would be one of their top 3 propsects. For an average farm system it would be a prospect ranked 3-5 within the system. And for a strong system, someone in the 5-10 range.

That kind of return is not as exciting as what Teheran or Vizcaino might bring back. But I hope we hold out for quality rather than a collection of organizational players when we move Norris. And we should try to bump up the quality of the return by combining him with other asset(s).
 
nsacpi said:
Most of the trade discussion has been centering on Teheran and Vizcaino.

But we also have a slew of other assets that could potentially be moved at the deadline. Given his recent success in the rotation, Bud Norris might be the most interesting one. He has a bit of a pedigree having generated WAR in the 1.5-2.5 range during the 2010-2014 period, before having a poor injury-riddled season last year. His performance this year is probably best viewed as a return to his 2010-2014 baseline.

It is not unrealistic to project that he will generate 1.0-1.5 WAR the rest of this year. Pair him up with another asset (such as Jim Johnson) and the overall value bumps up to close to 2 WAR. Assuming we are operating in a seller's market, I don't think it is unrealistic to think that a package of Norris and Johnson or some similar other combination could generate a return with a surplus value in the 2.5-3 WAR range.

So what kind of asset has that kind of value. It would probably not be a player who is on a Top 100 list of all prospects, but someone who gets some consideration for those lists. For a weak farm system, it would be one of their top 3 propsects. For an average farm system it would be a prospect ranked 3-5 within the system. And for a strong system, someone in the 5-10 range.

That kind of return is not as exciting as what Teheran or Vizcaino might bring back. But I hope we hold out for quality rather than a collection of organizational players when we move Norris. And we should try to bump up the quality of the return by combining him with other asset(s).
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I was thinking about the same thing earlier as well and came to three different packages albeit similar types of return..

Trade #1:

Atlanta sends:

Bud Norris

Nick Markakis

Alexi Ogando

Boston sends:

Michael Chavis

Pat Light

Henry Ramos

Trade #2

Atlanta sends:

Bud Norris

Rob Whalen

LA Dodgers send:

Cody Bellinger

Jacob Rahme

Trade #3- (this one may be a stretch)

Atlanta sends

Bud Norris

Arodis Vizcaino

Jim Johnson

Aaron Blair

Rio Ruiz

Rangers send:

Joey Gallo
 
MadduxFanII said:
I think we would do well to get a return for Norris that's similar to the return we got for Johnson and Uribe last year.
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The return there has turned out quite well. The Mets had a strong system and neither Gant nor Whalen was one of their Top 10 guys at the time of the trade. Both were probably in the Top 20. I certainly am happy about how that trade worked out, but if we have a choice in any trade involving Norris between a Top 10 guy and a couple of prospects ranked around 20, I would go for the Top 10 player. I would emphasize quality over quantity.
 
blueagleace1 said:
Trade #3- (this one may be a stretch)

Atlanta sends

Bud Norris
Arodis Vizcaino
Jim Johnson
Aaron Blair
Rio Ruiz

Rangers send:

Joey Gallo
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Actually I think that is a bit too much for Gallo. I would not include both Blair and Ruiz.. The issue in the package you propose is likely to be valuation of Blair. He was a pretty highly ranked prospect coming into this season and imo his valuation has been damaged by being rushed to the majors. I would only include him in a trade if he was valued as a Top 50-75 prospect.
 
nsacpi said:
Actually I think that is a bit too much for Gallo. I would not include both Blair and Ruiz.. The issue in the package you propose is likely to be valuation of Blair. He was a pretty highly ranked prospect coming into this season and imo his valuation has been damaged by being rushed to the majors. I would only include him in a trade if he was valued as a Top 50-75 prospect.
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Right and that's why I decided to include Ruiz
 
Yeah, if we get past the deadline and we still have Bud Norris on the roster then we have failed a little bit. I'm not expecting the moon for him, but I think we can at least get a prospect back that has a decent chance at contributing in the majors.
 
I wonder what our scouts think about D. J. Peterson? Norris would seem like a perfect fit in Seattle - where he could help the rotation to begin with and would be a really useful pen piece if they moved him there as well. Peterson's struggled with swing mechanics and kinda stalled, but he's got upside as a right-handed power bat that could be a sleeper if we could iron him out. He had a strong enough arm at 3B that could possibly play in LF if he's athletic enough - kinda an Adonis clone with more pop.
 
clvclv said:
I wonder what our scouts think about D. J. Peterson? Norris would seem like a perfect fit in Seattle - where he could help the rotation to begin with and would be a really useful pen piece if they moved him there as well. Peterson's struggled with swing mechanics and kinda stalled, but he's got upside as a right-handed power bat that could be a sleeper if we could iron him out. He had a strong enough arm at 3B that could possibly play in LF if he's athletic enough - kinda an Adonis clone with more pop.
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not a huge fan of Peterson.. saw him in Bham one afternoon and he has a big upper cut swing with a lot of miss there. They have an 25 year old closer in the makings that seems interesting.. But I really don't like too much in Seattle's Minors.. I know Bud is not going to fetch a lot.. but they have a bunch of Meh personally.
 
clvclv said:
I wonder what our scouts think about D. J. Peterson? Norris would seem like a perfect fit in Seattle - where he could help the rotation to begin with and would be a really useful pen piece if they moved him there as well. Peterson's struggled with swing mechanics and kinda stalled, but he's got upside as a right-handed power bat that could be a sleeper if we could iron him out. He had a strong enough arm at 3B that could possibly play in LF if he's athletic enough - kinda an Adonis clone with more pop.
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I dunno, the last time we brought in a pair of brothers with similar name patterns, it didn't turn out so hot for us.
 
This is a good thread as I was thinking of a package deal of Norris and Oganda or Jim Johnson for teams that could use a 4th or 5th starter for a short period until they have some arms return as well as a need in the pen.

I like Tyler Oneil from the Mariners or Ryan Cordell/Luke Jackson from the Rangers
 
clvclv said:
I wonder what our scouts think about D. J. Peterson? Norris would seem like a perfect fit in Seattle - where he could help the rotation to begin with and would be a really useful pen piece if they moved him there as well. Peterson's struggled with swing mechanics and kinda stalled, but he's got upside as a right-handed power bat that could be a sleeper if we could iron him out. He had a strong enough arm at 3B that could possibly play in LF if he's athletic enough - kinda an Adonis clone with more pop.
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Just watch D.J. Peterson the last four days in Chattanooga. He can flat hit, and hit with power. I would applaud almost any deal that brought him on board.
 
rico43 said:
Just watch D.J. Peterson the last four days in Chattanooga. He can flat hit, and hit with power. I would applaud almost any deal that brought him on board.
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But you're talking about a 24-year-old now on his 3rd turn in AA. He still has a poor K/BB ratio there. I would take him for Norris, don't get me wrong, because of the upside...I just don't expect him to ever hit that upside and become much of anything.
 
buck75 said:
As others have mentioned,if the Braves trade w Texas - I hope that we acquire Nicholas (catcher), too
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Did you catch my post on him? I have seen him a lot and he'd be good to pair with Flowers IMO. The Texas pitchers ERA were great with him catching his short time up too. Plus he hit well (over .800 OPS in SSS) and he's killing it in the PCL too.
 
Braves1976 said:
Did you catch my post on him? I have seen him a lot and he'd be good to pair with Flowers IMO. The Texas pitchers ERA were great with him catching his short time up too. Plus he hit well (over .800 OPS in SSS) and he's killing it in the PCL too.
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Yes sir. I was a little lazy in looking up your post on Nicholas.
 
buck75 said:
Yes sir. I was a little lazy in looking up your post on Nicholas.
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It's cool. BTW, another reason I'd look into getting Nicholas is that I expect Ramos not to be available this off-season. Nats are going to extend him before hand IMO.
 
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