Can we/should we allow Hamels to get away?

[nsacpi]

His xFIP is dead average.

His HR rate is the best reason to suspect that he'll have a better second half because it is well above his career norms.

His other peripherals are essentially consistent with what he put up in 2016.

His xFIP is probably the fairest representation of what we can expect of him the rest of the season.

We can take some encouragement from how Teheran and Fried have pitched the last two games. At this point its unclear whether starting pitching is a need. We'll know better by late July.

 

[zbhargrove]

His xFIP is dead average.

His HR rate is the best reason to suspect that he'll have a better second half because it is well above his career norms.

His other peripherals are essentially consistent with what he put up in 2016.

Okay I thought both his FIP and xFIP were bad... I was looking at it wrong. His FIP is still bad. We don't need dead average tho. We have a ton of pitchers than can likely be dead average.

 

[Carp]

No one here is using his ERA or WL record to evaluate his performance. His peripherals are terrible and you said he was in his prime which is beyond laughable. He's not an upgrade... period. I guess if it's "your job" to promote discussion, discuss someone worth it.

9.0 K/9, 3.4 BB rate, 43 percent ground ball rate. Those are not terrible peripherals. His HR rate is 1.8 which is extremely high. It's possible/probable that at least part of that is due to declining skills. But it's also likely his home park plays a large role in that as well.

 

[Southcack77]

Okay I thought both his FIP and xFIP were bad... I was looking at it wrong. His FIP is still bad. We don't need dead average tho. We have a ton of pitchers than can likely be dead average.

I think dead average would help but I don’t think it would be worth the cost most likely.

But then again I think the people estimating the projected price tags are pretty far off this year.

I don’t think anyone is going to pay like he’s an ace.

 

[Perfect Cell]

I hate these lines of reasoning. Is it possible that we are worse in 2019? Sure its a possibility. But by any reasonable projection we should definitely be an improved team next year. More of the farm guys are coming up, the rookies will have a year under their belt, we have money to spend in the offseason. Its pretty likely that we improve next year. If you want to make a win now deal, there are some valid arguments for that. But doing it because there is a chance we regress in 2019 is a poor one imo

The Royals made it to the World Series a couple years ago. They are irrelevant now. The Mets were supposed to have the next Braves type rotation and have a decade of dominance with Harvey, degrom and syndegrad. The Mets are irrelevant now.

Things happen. Injuries happen. Rookies dont pan out. Atlanta in 2018 is maybe ahead of what was projected. We are having an out of nowhere season from Nick Markakais . We aint getting that in 2019.

Basically. Could we be this good or better in 2019? Sure. But we also could be worse. So make the most out of 2018.

 

[Heyward]

Hamels is really good, it would depend on the cost of course.

 

[Heyward]

The Royals made it to the World Series a couple years ago. They are irrelevant now. The Mets were supposed to have the next Braves type rotation and have a decade of dominance with Harvey, degrom and syndegrad. The Mets are irrelevant now.

Things happen. Injuries happen. Rookies dont pan out. Atlanta in 2018 is maybe ahead of what was projected. We are having an out of nowhere season from Nick Markakais . We aint getting that in 2019.

Basically. Could we be this good or better in 2019? Sure. But we also could be worse. So make the most out of 2018.

We're probably not getting an All-Star level from Markakis if he's brought back, but.

We have the money to add a couple bullpen arms this winter which is obviously a huge need, and of course the farm is so stacked they can trade for just about anyone they want without batting an eye.

 

[BeanieAntics]

The Royals made it to the World Series a couple years ago. They are irrelevant now. The Mets were supposed to have the next Braves type rotation and have a decade of dominance with Harvey, degrom and syndegrad. The Mets are irrelevant now.

Things happen. Injuries happen. Rookies dont pan out. Atlanta in 2018 is maybe ahead of what was projected. We are having an out of nowhere season from Nick Markakais . We aint getting that in 2019.

Basically. Could we be this good or better in 2019? Sure. But we also could be worse. So make the most out of 2018.

This line of thinking is exactly the reason why the Royals are in the worst position in baseball moving forward. They aren't going to be competitive for years and years because they chose to focus solely on the 'now' instead of keeping one eye on the future. And what are we going to do? "Make the most out of 2018" at the expense of all or most of our future window? Trading away all of our top prospects for talented rentals would put us in a terrific position this year and it would definitely make the most out of 2018. But it also makes absolutely no sense to do so when we have constructed a farm that could give us a 5+ year competitive window.

Like I said before, any reasonable projection has us being better next year than last. In addition to the rookies gaining more experience, we have more top prospects coming up and a ton of money to spend in the offseason. We may not get a career year out of Markakis, but it is very possible that he is replaced by an even more valuable asset. Sure, things happen. But that is kind of a platitude and basing strategy on things that are unknowable is terrible strategy. And based off what we do know, we should improve next year.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

No thanks. SAV and I saw Hammels pitch live last night and he gave up 13 hits and 6 runs.

Oh, Cole Hamels? Same answer.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I really am open to discussion about this, but "way too much"? He has shown since he was a rookie in spring training he has the best infield arm on the team.

Range factor: Looking at Baseball reference, Swanson's is 3.95 in 244 games at short with 31 errors. Camargo's is 3.68 in 42 games at shortstop with two errors.

I can live with those differences.

Dansby was not bad his first two years defensively, but he wasn't good either with negative UZR/150 in both seasons. This season he is at a 10.1 UZR/150. He is much improved defensively and is honestly one of the best defensive shortstops in the National League. He is right up there with Addison Russell, Brandon Crawford, and Trea Turner. Johan Camargo actually looks like he has improved a little at shortstop since last season with a UZR/150 of 0.8 in 132 innings, but that still isn't great and its not a big enough sample to really judge a whole lot. Last season, though, he had a UZR/150 of -8.9 which is pretty darn bad.

But I think the thing that would hurt the most is moving Camargo off of 3rd, where he is fantastic. 12.6 UZR/150 at third base. His Def rating is a 3.4 on fangraphs which would put him in the top 5 among 3rd basemen defensively. Our team is much much better defensively with Camargo at 3rd and Dansby at SS.

 

[jpx7]

This line of thinking is exactly the reason why the Royals are in the worst position in baseball moving forward. They aren't going to be competitive for years and years because they chose to focus solely on the 'now' instead of keeping one eye on the future. And what are we going to do? "Make the most out of 2018" at the expense of all or most of our future window? Trading away all of our top prospects for talented rentals would put us in a terrific position this year and it would definitely make the most out of 2018. But it also makes absolutely no sense to do so when we have constructed a farm that could give us a 5+ year competitive window.

Like I said before, any reasonable projection has us being better next year than last. In addition to the rookies gaining more experience, we have more top prospects coming up and a ton of money to spend in the offseason. We may not get a career year out of Markakis, but it is very possible that he is replaced by an even more valuable asset. Sure, things happen. But that is kind of a platitude and basing strategy on things that are unknowable is terrible strategy. And based off what we do know, we should improve next year.

It’s not a strict binary. Seasons of contention are precious; an organization shouldn’t take for granted that they’re going to keep coming, no matter how well-laid the plans; and it’s slightly irresponsible to not try to maximize one’s odds when one finds one’s team in the thick of it come July. But that doesn’t mean one has to go full-throttle, blinded to the future, and sell out subsequent seasons, à la your Royals example. Balancing the two tensions is key, and there’s moderated, meticulously-weighed middle-ground that I hope Anthopoulos navigates this year, between future-eyed inaction and now-enamored gluttony.

 

[nsacpi]

It’s not a strict binary. Seasons of contention are precious; an organization shouldn’t take for granted that they’re going to keep coming, no matter how well-laid the plans; and it’s slightly irresponsible to not try to maximize one’s odds when one finds one’s team in the thick of it come July. But that doesn’t mean one has to go full-throttle, blinded to the future, and sell out subsequent seasons, à la your Royals example. Balancing the two tensions is key, and there’s moderated, meticulously-weighed middle-ground that I hope Anthopoulos navigates this year, between future-eyed inaction and now-enamored gluttony.

Exactly. We have a group of non-elite prospects (Encarnacion, Javier, Ynao, de la Cruz, Rangel, Mueller, Wisler, Sims, Ruiz, Webb) that have enough value to allow us to pursue two or three upgrades at this year's trade deadline. Modest upgrades. We are not going after an ace to head up the rotation.

But there is no excuse to be playing meaningful games in September and October without a good solid situational lefty to get a key out in the 6th or 7th inning or a versatile player like Solarte or Asdrubal Cabrera to fill in if one of our regulars is injured or slumping. And if Viz doesn't come back we should get a high leverage guy for the pen.

There is also the psychological angle. I thing it gives the guys who have been battling all year a boost to get a couple key reinforcements at the deadline.

Think back to the trade we made with the Mets a couple years ago when we were sellers. Uribe and Kelly Johnson for Gant and Whalen. We should be making the reverse of that kind of trade, perhaps even with the Mets.

 

[Southcack77]

Exactly. We have a group of non-elite prospects (Encarnacion, Javier, Ynao, de la Cruz, Rangel, Mueller, Wisler, Sims, Ruiz, Webb) that have enough value to allow us to pursue two or three upgrades at this year's trade deadline. Modest upgrades. We are not going after an ace to head up the rotation.

But there is no excuse to be playing meaningful games in September and October without a good solid situational lefty to get a key out in the 6th or 7th inning or a versatile player like Solarte or Asdrubal Cabrera to fill in if one of our regulars is injured or slumping. And if Viz doesn't come back we should get a high leverage guy for the pen.

There is also the psychological angle. I thing it gives the guys who have been battling all year a boost to get a couple key reinforcements at the deadline.

The young hitters in Rome and other young players elsewhere are exactly the guys the Braves should not be considering dealing if they wish to preserve a long window.

 

[AerchAngel]

Now if this was about DeGrom all bets off.

 

[Southcack77]

Now if this was about DeGrom all bets off.

I think there are folks who would not trade two of their preferred pitching prospects for DeGrom straight up.

Maybe they’d give up Wisler and Fried but they would have heartburn over it.

There has to be something in between gutting the system and not wanting to part with anything at all that has actual potential.

 

[AerchAngel]

Hammels is not worth it. If they paid his salary and we give up B rated pitchers go ahead, but he would be a waste just like McCarthy is and replaced by younger pitcher we have now.

his days are done as an elite 20 mil a year pitcher.

 

[nsacpi]

The young hitters in Rome and other young players elsewhere are exactly the guys the Braves should not be considering dealing if they wish to preserve a long window.

Well, some of the young hitters in Rome should not be traded. Note for example, I am not suggesting we trade Waters. Or Contreras. Or even Ramos. It might turn out that Encarnacion will be better than those guys. But I think it is unavoidable that the FO will have to make some sort of judgment or ranking about our prospects in determining which ones to make available for a rental like say Cabrera.

If we made a trade a couple years ago with the Mets where we sent Uribe and Kelly Johnson for Gant and Whalen, I would guess we can get Cabrera(I think his value is equivalent to the combined value of Uribe and Johnson) for a similar package. Say Wisler and Javier.

 

[jpx7]

The young hitters in Rome and other young players elsewhere are exactly the guys the Braves should not be considering dealing if they wish to preserve a long window.

I think you have to pick-and-choose, hedging carefully, with the lower-tier guys—but they can often hold more appeal than the near or ready types like Wisler, who have some value but whose value is severely capped by limited ceiling.

A guy like JCE is someone a team can really dream on—even if his chances of making the bigs are a lot lower—exactly because of his unknowns; but he’s a guy I specifically mentioned earlier in this thread as a prospect I’d be comfortable trading this season for the right upgrade (say, a cost-controlled reliever like Treinen, but not necessarily him, whom the Braves would have around for a few more seasons). Waters, Contreras, and even Ynoa are Rome guys I’d have a lot less comfort in trading.

 

[BeanieAntics]

It’s not a strict binary. Seasons of contention are precious; an organization shouldn’t take for granted that they’re going to keep coming, no matter how well-laid the plans; and it’s slightly irresponsible to not try to maximize one’s odds when one finds one’s team in the thick of it come July. But that doesn’t mean one has to go full-throttle, blinded to the future, and sell out subsequent seasons, à la your Royals example. Balancing the two tensions is key, and there’s moderated, meticulously-weighed middle-ground that I hope Anthopoulos navigates this year, between future-eyed inaction and now-enamored gluttony.

Yeah I was responding to the idea that it was a binary. That we should do all we can to make the most of 2018. I have no problem with us making some necessary upgrades this year, but they have to be smart.

 

[nsacpi]

Yeah I was responding to the idea that it was a binary. That we should do all we can to make the most of 2018. I have no problem with us making some necessary upgrades this year, but they have to be smart.

There is always some risk you give up a guy who is not that highly rated a prospect who later blossoms into a star. It happens even to smart front offices. But I don't think we can allow that kind of low probability risk paralyze us at the deadline.

That's kind of what we as fans can discuss and what the FO actually has to have a plan for. Among our prospects which ones do you make available for a certain kind of upgrade and which ones you don't.