nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The expiring contracts to Ozuna, Hamels, Melancon, Greene and others will set AA up with a lot of financial flexibility (to coin a phrase) next off-season. I think AA has planned this off-season with the idea of making a Betts-type trade at some point within the next year.
A Betts-type trade has two ingredients: a highly rated player with two or less years of control and that control being held by a team that is interested in reloading/rebuilding/getting under the salary cap.
I have a list of teams and players I think we could be working with over the next year:
Cubs: Bryant and Contreras
Indians: Lindor
Rangers: Gallo
Mariners: Haniger and Seager
Not all these players are equally highly rated (though the pecking order could get rearranged quite a bit over the course of the 2020 season).
While a deal for a position player seems more likely, there are also some pitchers we could make a similar move for. Someone like Syndegaard, Morton, Lynn or Boyd if they are healthy and productive in 2020.
Depending upon whether the player has one or two years of contractual control left, the expected surplus value for those types of players could range from 3 to 7 wins. This means a potential cost of a top prospect like Pache, Waters or Anderson. AA is likely to be open to this. If Michael Harris has a strong 2020 season in the lower minors it will be easier to part with Pache or Waters. So far AA has been a prospect hoarder and made most of his big acquisitions via free agency. That could change in a big way over the next year.
The advantages of a Betts-type move are obvious. You can massively upgrade a position for a season or two without a risky long-term contractual obligation. The amount of total expected surplus value is not as yuge as it is for a player on a team-friendly long-term deal, which in turn limits the cost in terms of prospect capital. Of course, I expect and hope AA continues to be a value shopper and not overpay even when shopping in a more expensive aisle.
A Betts-type trade has two ingredients: a highly rated player with two or less years of control and that control being held by a team that is interested in reloading/rebuilding/getting under the salary cap.
I have a list of teams and players I think we could be working with over the next year:
Cubs: Bryant and Contreras
Indians: Lindor
Rangers: Gallo
Mariners: Haniger and Seager
Not all these players are equally highly rated (though the pecking order could get rearranged quite a bit over the course of the 2020 season).
While a deal for a position player seems more likely, there are also some pitchers we could make a similar move for. Someone like Syndegaard, Morton, Lynn or Boyd if they are healthy and productive in 2020.
Depending upon whether the player has one or two years of contractual control left, the expected surplus value for those types of players could range from 3 to 7 wins. This means a potential cost of a top prospect like Pache, Waters or Anderson. AA is likely to be open to this. If Michael Harris has a strong 2020 season in the lower minors it will be easier to part with Pache or Waters. So far AA has been a prospect hoarder and made most of his big acquisitions via free agency. That could change in a big way over the next year.
The advantages of a Betts-type move are obvious. You can massively upgrade a position for a season or two without a risky long-term contractual obligation. The amount of total expected surplus value is not as yuge as it is for a player on a team-friendly long-term deal, which in turn limits the cost in terms of prospect capital. Of course, I expect and hope AA continues to be a value shopper and not overpay even when shopping in a more expensive aisle.
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