Charlie Morton extended!

Enscheff said:
Folks blinded by Duvall's power numbers are exactly why advanced stats allowed teams to gain a market advantage.

Despite all that power, his sub-.300 OBP makes him a roughly average offensive player. He fits well on this roster because the OF was so bad the Braves weren't even fielding average hitters.

Duvall is the perfect deadline acquisition to fill a gaping hole cheaply, not someone to plan around from opening day.
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He is going to be a 3WAR player. He's owed 7 million if he picks up the option and we do. IF we do not, then we owe him 3 million. I don't see why you wouldn't want a guy who is pretty safe to put up 2 WAR for 7 million.

Ideally you are not playing him every day. But our OF is still has big needs at opening day next year.

In an ideal role he's a part time player and hitting vs LH, then he's still probably around 1 WAR and worth the deal.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Donaldson got a good portion of his money with his glove. Soler does not have that glove and Im sure he knows it. Taking home field attendance this year there is still hope FF comes on board. I think AA and all GMs along with Manfred know what is likely to happen with Ozuna and Bauer. With that Im a bit surprised that Mortons deal got done before determining how much FF gets (or doesnt get)
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to be clear, when I said JD deal I didn't mean the number. I meant a 1 year, high annual value deal to prove he still is an impact guy. Soler would not get 23 million a year.
 
Russ2dollas said:
to be clear, when I said JD deal I didn't mean the number. I meant a 1 year, high annual value deal to prove he still is an impact guy. Soler would not get 23 million a year.
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Oh, thanks for the clarity but dont be thinking that I think that Soler will even get a pillow deal like Ozuna. For what ever reason. Soler (if that turns out to be AAs choice for DH) you look at guys like Ozuna, Castellanos, Moustakas. So so defensively but a power bat. When it comes to Duvall, Enscheff just posted a noteworthy piece on the Morton thread IIRC

Hell I dont even know where I am. Its just 3 or 4 posts above this one. Good info.
 
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Enscheff said:
Folks blinded by Duvall's power numbers are exactly why advanced stats allowed teams to gain a market advantage.

Despite all that power, his sub-.300 OBP makes him a roughly average offensive player. He fits well on this roster because the OF was so bad the Braves weren't even fielding average hitters.

Duvall is the perfect deadline acquisition to fill a gaping hole cheaply, not someone to plan around from opening day.
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Jump into my Wayback Machine. Duvall is basically Gorman Thomas who doesn't walk. Gorman had a low BA but a career isoOBP of 0.99.

I'm not that high on Duvall (that stance has been pretty consistent in my posts regarding him). I don't know if he'll be back, but if he wants to re-negotiate to extend his contract beyond 2022 by turning down his end of the option, I don't see the Braves as wanting to go down that road. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again, but if he's bucking for a multi-year/> $8 MM-$10 MM AAV, he probably won't be with the Braves. His game looks good if all you are looking at is the back of his baseball card.
 
50PoundHead said:
Jump into my Wayback Machine. Duvall is basically Gorman Thomas who doesn't walk. Gorman had a low BA but a career isoOBP of 0.99.

I'm not that high on Duvall (that stance has been pretty consistent in my posts regarding him). I don't know if he'll be back, but if he wants to re-negotiate to extend his contract beyond 2022 by turning down his end of the option, I don't see the Braves as wanting to go down that road. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again, but if he's bucking for a multi-year/> $8 MM-$10 MM AAV, he probably won't be with the Braves. His game looks good if all you are looking at is the back of his baseball card.
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The issue with Duvall is that he's both (a) a useful player and (b) probably the least useful player who's going to hit 30 HR this season. Makes it seem unlikely that the team and player can come to a shared valuation of his worth going forward.
 
He's definitely up there in the 'least valuable 30 HR hitter.' He could probably finish slightly above a handful- Haniger, Cruz, and maybe Mountcastle, Renfroe, Walsh, and Suarez if they make it- but he's definitely towards the bottom.

There will definitely be some interesting decisions being made this offseason, but tough to pass judgement until we know what happens with Freddie, Ozuna, and Ronald's recovery.
 
Russ2dollas said:
He is going to be a 3WAR player. He's owed 7 million if he picks up the option and we do. IF we do not, then we owe him 3 million. I don't see why you wouldn't want a guy who is pretty safe to put up 2 WAR for 7 million.

Ideally you are not playing him every day. But our OF is still has big needs at opening day next year.

In an ideal role he's a part time player and hitting vs LH, then he's still probably around 1 WAR and worth the deal.
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I guess it depends how you value his defense.

His DRS is 18 and his UZR is 6.8. Baseball savant has him at 3 OOA. DRS factored WAR has him at 2.9 on the season and UZR factored WAR has him at 2.

I would lean towards his WAR being at 2 instead of 3 but who knows what the Braves' numbers internally say.

And Duvall has only had an fWAR above 2 once in his career before this season. So to say he's a safe bet for 2 WAR seems a bit of a stretch imo.
 
jpx7 said:
The issue with Duvall is that he's both (a) a useful player and (b) probably the least useful player who's going to hit 30 HR this season. Makes it seem unlikely that the team and player can come to a shared valuation of his worth going forward.
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He's the kind of player the DH can cover providing you are going to get average-or-better production out of your defensive-centric positions (SS and C).
 
50PoundHead said:
Jump into my Wayback Machine. Duvall is basically Gorman Thomas who doesn't walk. Gorman had a low BA but a career isoOBP of 0.99.

I'm not that high on Duvall (that stance has been pretty consistent in my posts regarding him). I don't know if he'll be back, but if he wants to re-negotiate to extend his contract beyond 2022 by turning down his end of the option, I don't see the Braves as wanting to go down that road. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again, but if he's bucking for a multi-year/> $8 MM-$10 MM AAV, he probably won't be with the Braves. His game looks good if all you are looking at is the back of his baseball card.
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Adam Duvall is the same Adam Duvall we saw at his "peak" 5 years ago when he was putting up the exact same 30+ HR output with horrid OBP.

He is quite literally the exact same guy, and that guy was traded to the Braves while he was still cheap for a bag of baseballs. That guy was cut loose by the Braves and signed by the Marlins. That guy was then again traded for a bag of baseballs. Duvall's brand of offense is quite clearly assigned a value by MLB teams.

He is perfectly fine as a part time player, especially if he can truly cover CF, but the Braves played the Adam Duvall cards perfectly this year. I expect AA will continue to play those same cards perfectly in future seasons.
 
Enscheff said:
Adam Duvall is the same Adam Duvall we saw at his "peak" 5 years ago when he was putting up the exact same 30+ HR output with horrid OBP.

He is quite literally the exact same guy, and that guy was traded to the Braves while he was still cheap for a bag of baseballs. That guy was cut loose by the Braves and signed by the Marlins. That guy was then again traded for a bag of baseballs. Duvall's brand of offense is quite clearly assigned a value by MLB teams.

He is perfectly fine as a part time player, especially if he can truly cover CF, but the Braves played the Adam Duvall cards perfectly this year. I expect AA will continue to play those same cards perfectly in future seasons.
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Right, and your evaluation is why I find it quite silly that some on here believe he will have multi years offers on the table this off season.
 
If expectations hold on the DH coming to the NL I see no reason that Duvall will not receive multi year offers. IMO they wont be coming from contending teams. Cubs would be one team I would think would be interested to some degree. Maybe even the Pirates or Nats.
 
NYCBrave said:
Right, and your evaluation is why I find it quite silly that some on here believe he will have multi years offers on the table this off season.
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I guess my point is he may not have many multi-year offers, but it only takes one team to go that route for it to pay off for him. He's slated to make $7 million in 2022 and he may think he can either get a $2 million to $3 million raise on a one-year deal or two years at a slightly higher than his current $7 million AAV with options attached in either case. It's really not what others think of him. It's what he and his agent think that will determine his route going forward.

I think the Braves do pick up their end of the option. Less sure on Pederson.
 
50PoundHead said:
I guess my point is he may not have many multi-year offers, but it only takes one team to go that route for it to pay off for him. He's slated to make $7 million in 2022 and he may think he can either get a $2 million to $3 million raise on a one-year deal or two years at a slightly higher than his current $7 million AAV with options attached in either case. It's really not what others think of him. It's what he and his agent think that will determine his route going forward.

I think the Braves do pick up their end of the option. Less sure on Pederson.
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But if they didn't pick up the option last year, then why would they this year? I'm not sure the Braves can afford his price if he's not a full time player. Too much uncertainty right now, especially as far as Ozuna situation.
 
I don't know if Joc will be brought back or not. But people need to understand that is 2.5 million of dead weight if we don't
exercise the option. So the question isn't necessarily, "Is Joc worth 10 million?" The question is, "Can we find a better option for 7.5 million?" I think the answer is probably a "no" but money could be tight. Rosario certainly is an option to that could be cheaper than Joc too. And Pache/Waters will be given every chance to succeed as well.
 
I dont see how Braves would be responsible to pay the option when the player declines. It is a mutual option for a reason.
 
NYCBrave said:
But if they didn't pick up the option last year, then why would they this year? I'm not sure the Braves can afford his price if he's not a full time player. Too much uncertainty right now, especially as far as Ozuna situation.
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As long as Snitker is the manager, Duvall will be in the line-up at least 75% of the time.
 
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