Chris Johnson - NL Batting Leader
- Thread starter GovClintonTyree
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Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Not sure if you've seen Prado this year but he's not doing all that well.
Johnson > Prado.
Prado has been the anti Chris Johnson. His BABIP is only 274 this year compared to 311 for his career. Since hte ASB though he's been killing the ball. Prado is a better player than Johnson despite what's happened this year. He's not 10 million better though.
Tino25Dynasty
Arizona Fall Leaguer
Unless we differ in our definition of "solid", I still think he has a pretty solid glove. Meaning, he's not great or gold glove anything but I definitively don't think he's an embarrassment out there at 3rd or anything. JMO
Tino25Dynasty
Arizona Fall Leaguer
I definitely agree with this... Hell, if he finishes in the top 3, he'll be a valuable piece to trade while he's high....
ChapelHillMatt
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
I've come to the conclusion that BABIP is a stupid stat.
All it does is discredit those who are performing and allows people to make excuses for those that aren't.
Everyone wanted to get Upton without giving up Prado, well we essentially did. There is no way Prado would be more productive than Johnson has been.
All it does is discredit those who are performing and allows people to make excuses for those that aren't.
Everyone wanted to get Upton without giving up Prado, well we essentially did. There is no way Prado would be more productive than Johnson has been.
ChapelHillMatt
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Agreed
People love to over exaggerate how bad he is defensively. He doesn't have great range and that hurts him but he's no where near as bad as people make him out to be.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Umm no. It's used as a predictor of future performance. Nothing more.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Yes and No.
Who do you trade him for?
Unproven prospects?
And who plays 3B.
I don't expect him to hit this well next year but I don't see him being awful either.
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Honestly, we didn't get CJ in that trade to be leading the team in batting average. We got him to hit low in the lineup and provide at least serviceable defense while other people (BJ) were supposed to produce more. Him hitting this well has been a blessing.
BremanFan88
Playing the Waiting Game
I'm just happy the people in charge are smart enough to realize when a player is having a fluke year and won't pencil them in for next year and beyond based on it like some fans seem to be doing. If anyone in the front office thinks CJ is a viable long term solution at 3B then we have major issues.
So you think he isn't even an above avg major league 3B?
And who do you want to replace him with?
BremanFan88
Playing the Waiting Game
It would be fair if he was actually a decent defender but obviously he's not. That and not a lot of power and not a walker. Pretty much has no value as a starter if he's a .280 hitter.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
This he's not a good defender crap is stupid.
He's not elite but I'm not seeing it where he's an abortion at third either and should be a DH. His defense is much better than some are saying.
He is a post from John Sickles about Chris Not sure if its been posted before
***It is really hard for me to believe that Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is hitting .346/.384/.471. More power to him (no pun intended), but when he was a prospect I didn't think he would be anything close to that good. Jeff Sullivan wrote an article about Johnson at Fangraphs yesterday which got me thinking about him.
Digging through some old reports, I found this comment from the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, which was a good summary of my analysis of Johnson at the time.
Chris Johnson has some pop in his bat, but his unimpressive strike zone judgment holds his offense back. His OPS was just +3 percent in the Pacific Coast League last year, and he looked overmatched in his major league time, granted a 22 at-bat sample is tiny. On the positive side, he's a solid defender at third base, with decent range and a very strong throwing arm. I think Johnson can hit .250 with 15 homers as season in the majors, but his OBP would be below average and his overall production would be substandard for a corner player. Unless his plate discipline takes a huge leap forward, I think he's destined to bounce between Triple-A and the major league bench jobs. Grade C.
Jeff points out Johnson's unsustainable .426 BABIP this year. But he also points out that, with a minimum 1500 plate appearances, Johnson's career .364 BABIP ranks fourth all-time, behind three players you might have heard of named Ty Cobb, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Rogers Hornsby.
Jeff runs through more numbers, but here is his conclusion:
As with all things, the Chris Johnson truth lies in the in-between. He is neither as good as his BABIP, nor is he probably as average as an average BABIP. It's a matter of degree of regression, and that's not something we can easily predict. For Johnson, with his .364 career BABIP, he's been worth 1.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances. The one time his BABIP was normal, he came in below replacement-level. How much he sinks is a matter of some interest to us. It's also a matter of extreme interest to Johnson, since his BABIP looks like it'll determine the course of his career. So far, at least, so good. So astonishingly good.
I don't know what else to say really, other than Johnson has turned out to be much better than I thought he'd be.
***It is really hard for me to believe that Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is hitting .346/.384/.471. More power to him (no pun intended), but when he was a prospect I didn't think he would be anything close to that good. Jeff Sullivan wrote an article about Johnson at Fangraphs yesterday which got me thinking about him.
Digging through some old reports, I found this comment from the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, which was a good summary of my analysis of Johnson at the time.
Chris Johnson has some pop in his bat, but his unimpressive strike zone judgment holds his offense back. His OPS was just +3 percent in the Pacific Coast League last year, and he looked overmatched in his major league time, granted a 22 at-bat sample is tiny. On the positive side, he's a solid defender at third base, with decent range and a very strong throwing arm. I think Johnson can hit .250 with 15 homers as season in the majors, but his OBP would be below average and his overall production would be substandard for a corner player. Unless his plate discipline takes a huge leap forward, I think he's destined to bounce between Triple-A and the major league bench jobs. Grade C.
Jeff points out Johnson's unsustainable .426 BABIP this year. But he also points out that, with a minimum 1500 plate appearances, Johnson's career .364 BABIP ranks fourth all-time, behind three players you might have heard of named Ty Cobb, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Rogers Hornsby.
Jeff runs through more numbers, but here is his conclusion:
As with all things, the Chris Johnson truth lies in the in-between. He is neither as good as his BABIP, nor is he probably as average as an average BABIP. It's a matter of degree of regression, and that's not something we can easily predict. For Johnson, with his .364 career BABIP, he's been worth 1.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances. The one time his BABIP was normal, he came in below replacement-level. How much he sinks is a matter of some interest to us. It's also a matter of extreme interest to Johnson, since his BABIP looks like it'll determine the course of his career. So far, at least, so good. So astonishingly good.
I don't know what else to say really, other than Johnson has turned out to be much better than I thought he'd be.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
BremanFan88
Playing the Waiting Game
Above average? I'm not even sure he'd be average. I think CJ is a .350 BABIP guy which would be pretty damn good if he had another part of the game to compliment it. But he doesn't. He's probably a .280 hitter but would have like a .320 OBP and average at best with the glove. That's nothing special and easily replaceable.
I hope the Braves actively look for a replacement/upgrade and if they can't manage anything then La Stella should get a shot. At least he can get on base if nothing else.