Coming soon: A blockbuster. Maybe two.
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
These are the only things I know for sure.
We will not sign a FA who has a QO, which means all who were traded last month and the bargain bin FA's are the only ones we'll look at seriously. Having that 1-1 or 1-2 slot money I cannot see us losing a pick.
We'll trade from our surplus areas, looking to sell high on any player or prospect that had a good season who is not untouchable. Fans will be pi$$ed as they'll question why we did not trade the players who had down seasons.
There will be lots of trades
There will be a decent percentage of our acquisitions who are from the GA area or grew up a Braves fan
We will not sign a FA who has a QO, which means all who were traded last month and the bargain bin FA's are the only ones we'll look at seriously. Having that 1-1 or 1-2 slot money I cannot see us losing a pick.
We'll trade from our surplus areas, looking to sell high on any player or prospect that had a good season who is not untouchable. Fans will be pi$$ed as they'll question why we did not trade the players who had down seasons.
There will be lots of trades
There will be a decent percentage of our acquisitions who are from the GA area or grew up a Braves fan
Wut? Donaldson had 7.6 WAR and 6.6 WAR in the two years before he was traded, he was insanely good before the trade. And he's been the best 3B in baseball since he came up to the majors, there is nothing arguable about it. Arenado is a 4.5-5 WAR guy, he can't touch Donaldson.
The difference is driven entirely by Coors Field. Their numbers have been remarkably similar overall, and Arenado has even better defense.
Arenado has had big home/road splits, but a lot of players do. I'd be interested to see him outside of Coors.
Arenado's defense is better.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Coppi is not like our GMs of the past. I could see him making a statement at some point. I don't think it is this off season but in the next three years, I believe he will go get a big name via trade/FA..
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
As much as I know we need to improve, I seriously hope Coppy doesn't go all Prellar or Stewart to bring in talent from trades.
There's no way that's going to happen.
Donaldson has a .990 OPS this year, Arenado has a .939 OPS, and that's with Coors boosting the hell out of his numbers. Many players hit better home versus away, but unless they have an extreme home park they don't hit 200 points of OPS better like Arenado does. They aren't that close at all offensively. Defensively UZR likes Donaldson better, and DRS likes Arenado better. I prefer DRS so I'd agree with you Arenado is slightly better defensively. But not enough so to offset the difference in offense, particularly with the Coors effect.
The only difference offensively has been Coors. Know what Donaldson's OPS was last year? .939.
And Arenado had an .898 OPS last year, what's your point?
I'm not even sure what you are trying to say with the Coors statements, are you honestly trying to claim Coors is hurting Arenado's offensive numbers? Cause that would be one of the more absurd things I've ever read. Arenado has a sub .850 OPS outside of Coors, his numbers are insanely inflated because of his home stadium. Donaldson has a gigantic advantage in wRC+ the past two years, almost 40 points better both years, they aren't really close.
My point is that even when their offensive numbers have been virtually identical and Arenado's defense has been better, Donaldson clearly wins in WAR. Again, that difference is driven primarily by Arenado playing home games in Coors Field.
No, I'm not claiming that Coors is hurting Arenado. My point is that WAR is purely stat-driven, so when the stats are essentially equal on both sides, the difference comes from the fact that Arenado plays in Coors.
Of course Coors may help Arenado's numbers, which is exactly what WAR is trying to account for. I'm just saying that their numbers have been extremely similar, and it would be interesting to have a comparison of Arenado outside of Coors. But if you expect Arenado to put up similar numbers playing away from Coors (I'm sure plenty wouldn't), then they're extremely similar players.
Personally, I think Arenado's numbers would dip, but not by as much as WAR compensates for in WAR. I think that if Donaldson is a 7-8 WAR player, Arenado is at least a 6-7 WAR player.
Pretty interesting name that's been bouncing around my mind along those lines would be Ervin Santana. Perfect contract (2 years/$27 million) for where we are at this point IMO. Would give you that solid vet that you could count on to be Julio's wingman while bridging to the guys in the lower levels. If he could be had for the right price (say maybe Jenkins and Ellis or some combination of our guys of their ilk) I think he'd be a great fit.
Teheran/Santana/Folty/Wisler wouldn't be half-bad while waiting for someone to take steps forward, especially if we added another offensive piece on a palatable deal.
I've thought about Santana as well. I've also thought about Dozier and switching him to 3B.
Donaldson is a level above Arenado. Coors, while not as bad as they were in the late 90's, still boost the hell out of raw numbers. I think a good comparison is Matt Holliday. With the Rockies he was posting OPS' in the mid 900's to low 1000's. With the Cards it was high 800's to low 900's. Yet his WRC+ (which accounts for ballpark and other factors) remained consistent from the Rockies to the Cards. So imo it accounted for the Coors effect pretty well. So with Arenado you are still likely to see a 118-125 WRC+ range that he has shown the last 2 years. So his raw OPS would drop quite a bit imo when going to another team. Really good player but Donaldson is elite.
Maybe. Holliday was only in the high .900 to low 1.000 range for 2 years in Coors, when he was 26 and 27, which would make sense. He then dropped to just below .950 at age 28 in Coors, fell to the low .900's through age 31 elsewhere, then started dropping steadily after that.
To me, that follows a fairly typical aging pattern. Again, I'm not arguing that Coors doesn't help at all. I just don't really buy that it boosts your OPS 100 points.
Tulowitzki is an interesting case, as his 1st half last year suggests that maybe the trade coincided with a big dip for him around age 30. Gerardo Parra has seen no uptick in performance after going to Colorado.
I don't know, it's interesting. On one hand I trust the data, but at the same time I'm just not sure I buy that Coors is still that big a factor.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I mentioned Dozier the other day. Make a trade for him and Ervin and we are automatically better