Could Albies be a consistent .900 ops hitter?

[bravesfanMatt]

I would be happy if Albies just averages .800. If we could find a manager to utilize he and Ender's speed on the basepaths his value would be even better when you include defense.

ready and waiting..

 

[Enscheff]

I follow your reasoning, and I realize that Ozzie is a little guy, but are you completely discounting the idea that he may get stronger as he physically matures, and thereby increase those exit velocity numbers you cite? If I had to prognosticate, I couldn't disagree much with your expectations, but I wouldn't 100% discount the possibility that Albies could be a consistent .875-.900 or even better hitter. Likelihood? No. Possibility, yes. There is also a possibility that he could increase his walk rate a bit, decrease his strikeouts a little and increase his LD percentage. Again, I don't disagree with what you project, just with discounting any possibility at all that he could exceed it. He may also go all Heyward on us, and never be as good as it seems inevitable that he will be. Like you, I'll be happy with an annual four plus win player, but I'll still hope for more, especially until he settles into his career.

For some reason BaseballSavant is having issues and I can't grab exit velocity data from 2015, but the data from 2016-2017 shows exit velocity increases year to year until a player reaches age 27, at which point it starts declining. There is very limited data available for 21 year olds, but it looks like Albies will probably increase his exit velocity by 1-2 MPH from the age of 22 to 27.

That increase in exit velocity makes him Mookie Betts if he doesn't change his batted ball profile. To be Altuve he needs to hit less FBs and increase his exit velocity. If nothing changes he is probably a faster Cozart.

I'm guessing more Betts, and less Altuve or Cozart. That is a very valuable player.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Loving the analyses of Albies. Thanks Enscheff.

 

[nsacpi]

Loving the analyses of Albies. Thanks Enscheff.

that you young padawan?

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

that you young padawan?

So it is. I have returned to curse another player to leave another favorite team (jk, just found myself agreeing with you and Enscheff in like every discussion and therefore lurking instead of saying "Yeah, what he said.")

 

[nsacpi]

So it is. I have returned to curse another player to leave another favorite team (jk, just found myself agreeing with you and Enscheff in like every discussion and therefore lurking instead of saying "Yeah, what he said.")

So how's the beisbol in Managua

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

So how's the beisbol in Managua

Surprisingly competitive, but the season just ended. I think Rivas just beat Leon for the championship (I watched like 10 seconds on television).

As far as USA beisbol, my internet is pretty terrible for streaming here, so I basically have to find the worst quality streams possible to use (the kind everyone else complains about because of quality, haha). I've mostly been following along with y'all for now and occasionally catching Newcomb. Only have one more beisbol season in the "dark", I suppose, so if I'm lucky I'll be in the US when we're actually good. Needless to say, I'm on board with Enscheff's "put off spending for another year" plan partially for selfish reasons, haha.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The first hitter is much more valuable.

The easiest path for Albies to become a better hitter is to stop hitting so many fly balls.

I wouldn't be so sure about it, especially if his speed is going to go completely unused by the Braves.

 

[Knucksie]

you don't have to play the same game the rest of us are, but I'd be interested in your thoughts on Albies

Well, here's what you can do, since you apparently have all this free time! How about researching posting history and showing when these projections were anywhere close to accurate. By the time Albies has been in the majors for 4 years, this thread will have long been forgotten. At the same time, those who check in with Fangraphs on an hourly basis will not want their previous remarks brought back from the dead.

 

[Enscheff]

I wouldn't be so sure about it, especially if his speed is going to go completely unused by the Braves.

30 points in OBP is about 2x as valuable as 20 points in SLG.

I understand what you mean though. Albies can certainly develop either way. I hope he chooses the line drive hitting path.

 

[jpx7]

Well, here's what you can do, since you apparently have all this free time! How about researching posting history and showing when these projections were anywhere close to accurate. By the time Albies has been in the majors for 4 years, this thread will have long been forgotten. At the same time, those who check in with Fangraphs on an hourly basis will not want their previous remarks brought back from the dead.

I say this as someone who currently posts sparingly, and contributes even less, to the baseball side of these boards: What, exactly, are you contributing, baseball-wise, besides vacant biliousness?

 

[AerchAngel]

no one does it better than Enscheff and stats/mathematics.

I think he is a programmer by trade like me.