Could the Braves win 90 games this season?

Going back the past 3 seasons, both NL wild card teams have combined to average 88 wins per team......the second wild card team has averaged just 85 wins....

Completely doable for this years Braves to at least get in that play in game
 
nsacpi said:
Suzuki and Muk will almost surely regress...as in 99% probability...just a question of how much

Ditto for Flaherty

I think the kids (Albies, Acuna, Swanson, Camargo) will regress as a group...also very high probability

Freeman is a good bet to maintain...so is Inciarte who is rounding into his usual form

The pitching I think will be good but not outstanding. I like our pitching depth.

I was a relative optimist coming into the season, pegging this team at about 80 wins. I guess I'm around 85 wins now.
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Flaherty has already begun regressing, but more regression is likely to happen for a career .220 hitter. Good news is that he should still be a valuable bench player with his defense, solid power, and great walk rate.
 
nsacpi said:
Suzuki and Muk will almost surely regress...as in 99% probability...just a question of how much

Ditto for Flaherty

I think the kids (Albies, Acuna, Swanson, Camargo) will regress as a group...also very high probability

Freeman is a good bet to maintain...so is Inciarte who is rounding into his usual form

The pitching I think will be good but not outstanding. I like our pitching depth.

I was a relative optimist coming into the season, pegging this team at about 80 wins. I guess I'm around 85 wins now.
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Suzuki is more or less doing what he did last year. Numbers will come down a little, but no longer much reason to think it would be dramatic absent injury.

Markakis should come down a fair amount, but there is a chance that he's a little bit better than he has been the last few years. Could be due to the walk year or a changed approach. Or just better health.

Flaherty is a mirage, but maybe somebody else will not be.
 
I don't see a lot that suggest Suzuki is going to regress much. Coming into today, his HR rate was a much more reasonable 11%, vs the unsustainable (for him) 17% last year. His BABIP is right around his career norm.

He has improved both his K and BB rates this year. He might not continue to to hit so well, but there's not many red flags with what he's doing now.

Again, almost everyone is following the "best case scenario", and it's putting the Braves on track to be a playoff contender in year 4 of the rebuild...which is something we have seen happen with a few recent rebuilding teams.
 
nsacpi said:
I agree...young players are more difficult to project...sometimes they just take off
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And when you have young players the caliber of Newk/albies/acuna/Soroka the projection systems may end up severely underrating a win total which is what we are seeing with this braves.

I thought at the start of the year we were a 86 win team because of those players. We may see even more
 
thewupk said:
So what are you trying to say? That you think it's unfair when projection systems have the Braves as bad and then all of the young players play good or better at once?
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I don't get why you take this tone with me. It's just uncecesaary.
 
Raisel Iglesias
3:55 Is Kyle Wright, Koby Allard and Cristian Pache enough, too much or not enough to get me in Atlanta?
Jeffrey Todd
3:55 Sounds too rich.

This is the kind of thing that closes a team's competitive window years before it should have closed.

The trade is obviously crazy, but the thought process is all too common.
 
Enscheff said:
Raisel Iglesias
3:55 Is Kyle Wright, Koby Allard and Cristian Pache enough, too much or not enough to get me in Atlanta?
Jeffrey Todd
3:55 Sounds too rich.

This is the kind of thing that closes a team's competitive window years before it should have closed.

The trade is obviously crazy, but the thought process is all too common.
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I wouldnt be against getting Iglesias but thats way too much.
 
Projection systems are conservative with young players. News at 11.

Even given that, the fact they're usually conservative means that their projections with Albies/Acuna before this year were very impressive.
 
Enscheff said:
Raisel Iglesias
3:55 Is Kyle Wright, Koby Allard and Cristian Pache enough, too much or not enough to get me in Atlanta?
Jeffrey Todd
3:55 Sounds too rich.

This is the kind of thing that closes a team's competitive window years before it should have closed.

The trade is obviously crazy, but the thought process is all too common.
Click to expand...

I saw that one too and thought about some crazy trade ideas some post on here. No way AA does that deal, lol.
 
Enscheff said:
Raisel Iglesias
3:55 Is Kyle Wright, Koby Allard and Cristian Pache enough, too much or not enough to get me in Atlanta?
Jeffrey Todd
3:55 Sounds too rich.

This is the kind of thing that closes a team's competitive window years before it should have closed.

The trade is obviously crazy, but the thought process is all too common.
Click to expand...

What an absolutely awful idea. I wouldn't give up any of them individually for him, regardless of what the market value might be at the deadline.

They'll be plenty of quality relief options we can acquire for prospects like D Peterson, Alex Jackson, Bryce Wilson, or Joey Wentz. Even middling prospects like Brett Cumberland could be trade chips for rental relief pitchers.
 
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