Basing your projection for next year off of this years win total is never a good thing. Mariners are not a true talent 89 win team
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Basing your projection for next year off of this years win total is never a good thing. Mariners are not a true talent 89 win team
Not likely, of course not without adding.
Of course, the 2018 Braves or Athletics weren't worth counting on based on projections.
Semantics really, but without the additions those teams made around the margins they wouldn't have been relevant either. The only point I was making is that if they aren't willing to tear it all the way down right now, it makes some sense to try to add a piece or two and try to be there in case things the projections don't see happening happen - it wouldn't be the first time things shook out differently than expected.
At least management would be in a better position to sell the fans on a complete teardown at that point - DiPoto's deal would be up, King Felix would be coming off the books, there would only be two years left on Seager's deal, and they'd be another year closer to being through with the Cano commitment - they would have done their best to try to win with the pieces they'd built everything on. If they were to trade even one of the marketable pieces like Segura or Diaz for pieces that aren't MLB-ready, not only do they stand a chance of alienating the fanbase, they'll also have a pretty unhappy clubhouse. No doubt they're in a *hitty place to be right now. I agree that if you're going to tear it down, take it to the studs - I'm just not sure that you can do that as easily in a place like Seattle as you were able to do it in Atlanta. Maybe if you had a couple of potential cornerstones already extended like the Braves did in Freddie and Julio (Paxton and Haniger perhaps) that would be around when you got good again the fans swallow it a little better, who knows?
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NYCBrave
Well-known member
Haniger will be 28 next year, and Paxton will be 30. You can't quite build around those two for a rebuild...
The concern would be about fan reaction there, that you'd probably need to appease the fans a bit if you expected to get them to come to the park when you started unloading everyone else. Extending Haniger until he's 35 would act a bit like Freddie's extension (even if it wasn't as solid financially).
Again, I'm just not so sure the fans would keep coming to the park in a place like Seattle if you decided to completely start from scratch.
They would if/when they started winning.
Literally every team faces that same dilemma aside from NYY and Boston. May be the Cubbies too. Yet, rebuilds happen every year.
They have a terrible farm, an aging core, and the competition is insane in the AL right now with the top teams built to win for the next 3-4 years at least. Unless they plan on increasing payroll up to NY or Boston levels, they need to tear it down and start from scratch.
Like in Atlanta? You realize the Braves won the division and drew around 250,000 more fans than the Mariners with their "bad" team this year, right? If they trade everyone and go full rebuild, how many fans do they need to draw just to pay Cano's salary? Then tack on the Seager commitment. Then the money they owe King Felix.
Fans are fickle everywhere - a bit more so in Atlanta, but still everywhere - you still need to draw a certain amount of fans if you're unable to unload those bad contracts, otherwise you can't pay the bills.
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The reason the Braves could go full rebuild is that they unloaded EVERY significant contract on their books, so the number of *sses in the seats was irrelevant. The Mariners don't have the pieces to trade away to make those commitments disappear unless they offer Paxton to get someone to take Cano or Seager and Segura or Diaz or Haniger to take the other one. Then they're still left having to pay King Felix' 2019 salary and no one left to trade to get prospects back. The Braves bit that bullet by unloading Kimbrel to make Melvin disappear. Will Seattle be willing to make a similar move no matter how badly the fans get *issed off?
They are in arguably as bad a position as anyone out there, and desperately need the overhaul you guys are talking about - but it's going to be REALLY painful whenever they start, much like the Mutts. The question is, will ANYONE come to the park when they do finally start?
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Yes. The Mariners won 89 games. They were lucky to do so. They won't win that many in 2019.
You do realize ticket sales are less than half of a teams revenue, don't you? Even if teams never sold a single ticket during the year, they'd likely still come out in the black (well at least some teams). What they owe certain players doesn't have much bearing on whether they rebuild or not.
Exactly? This is why they should not hesitate to trade off their valuable assets and rebuild. every year that goes by where they aren't true contenders is a year of value lost on guys like Haniger and Paxton. they probably should've been dealt last offseason/midseason, but now is better than next offseason. otherwise they go thru another year of not actually competing, and haniger is 29 and paxton 31. right now those two still have a ton of value. they will have less next season.
Of course I do. The point is that if you cut that stream down significantly with as many big contracts as the Mariners have on the books, it's going to be much tougher to make ends meet. If you want to consider the money they will owe Cano and Paxton in arbitration a push with what the Braves owed Freddie and Julio during their rebuild (not exactly, but close enough for these purposes) Seattle would STILL owe Segura $58 million, Seager $56 million, Leake $49 million, Gordon $27.5 million, and King Felix $27 million. Out of the long-term commitments they have left, does anyone really believe they'll get anything for anyone other than Segura?
The Braves were nowhere close to being in that bad a position when they knew attendance was going to disappear. It's the whole reason the Marlins had to give Stanton and Ozuna away for very little in return.
Again, I've agreed with everyone saying they need to start over, I've simply pointed out that given the situation they're in right now financially (with enough money coming off their books to add a couple pieces this winter) that they could try to add and hope for some luck in 2019. They can't make those long-term commitments disappear, so they're stuck with them - why not try to improve at the margins and try to win while they've still got Paxton and Haniger in 2019, then trade them the next season?
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Fans are not going to show up just because they chose to extend Haniger. They should have won somewhere around 77 games this year. If they actually win the number of games they should next year in addition to having even more payroll on the books, they're in a worse position than if they had started unloading assets.
They were not a good team this year, they got lucky. Counting on getting similarly lucky next year is a horrific strategy.
Southcack77
Well-known member
You folks seems to think that all but about six teams should be tanking at all times.
tanking? not really. rebuilding? sure. what's the argument against the mariners the rebuilding, since that's who's being talked about?
1. They weren't very good last year; should have been below .500
2. Core is made up of older players not likely to get better than what they are now
3. Terrible farm system so no reinforcements on the horizon
4. At best the 3rd best team in their division. Both teams above them are much younger and much better with much better players on the farm
the mariners trying to compete next year rather than starting a rebuild while they still have healthy, valuable pieces would be foolish and doom them for years.
It's a proven strategy. It works. If MLB doesn't like it, they can implement rules to fix it.
Southcack77
Well-known member
They're a big market club that won 89 games despite missing Robinson Cano for a half season.
They get out from under Feliz the following season.
They should have the payroll to remain relevant.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I mean if spending five years being awful to have a shot of being great is a proven strategy...certainly hasn't worked for everyone.
define "remain relevant." they were pretty clearly lucky to win 89 games this year.
they have nothing to supplement the major league team with. like, literally nothing.
they can spend a ton of money and still be easily the 3rd best team in the division at best. this would also require adding a ton of risk in long-term contracts. Cano will be 36 to start the year, Nelson Cruz will be close to 39.
it's fine if you think they should try and compete i guess. i don't see any kind of path for them. there are two teams in their own division much younger and much better. i maintain that it would be foolish for them to try and compete.
This is the problem with relying so heavily on the consistently unreliable projections. They won 89 games, so saying "they should have won 77 games" is pretty ridiculous. The Gnats "should have won 96 games", what should we take from that? The Braves and Phillies are both much younger and are coming off better years, so should Washington start looking to unload everybody and start from scratch?
Remind us how many games those projection systems had the 2018 Braves winning. How about the Athletics? The Gnats? Didn't they have the Astros projected to win the most games? And where are they? Exactly how many of the teams did the projections peg correctly?
The numbers have to be used as a tool - a very good tool, mind you - but still an imperfect tool. You simply can't just go with what the analytics department prescribes 100% of the time in every situation, because they're not infallible. The unexpected happens - Trout has one too many beers the night his brother comes to town, wakes up with a pounding headache, and misses a fastball when everyone KNOWS it's coming in the bottom of the third with two men on.
No one's saying you shouldn't rely heavily on what the analytics tell you - simply that if they're the only thing you use in your decision-making process that you're going to wind up being disappointed more often than you think you will. If AA & Company had approached 2018 strictly as another year in the rebuilding process - as the analytics told them to - there would be one less flag flying over SunTrust Park next April (if those going strictly by the numbers in every situation had been proven right every time, that flag would be flying in Philly or D. C. instead).
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