Crasnick Article On BA

Southcack77 said:
Personally, I don't think the Nats window is at all dependent on Harper. But that's neither here nor there.

--- To say it again, I don't think Seattle sacrifices much of anything by going into this season trying to win. The same trades will be there at the deadline or next offseason. I think they can stay on the positive side and in my opinion that's probably better than being awful for an extended period. There is always time to be awful and maybe you can avoid it.
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It's not all dependent on Harper. But he's leaving and their other players are getting older. They should be a good team but they aren't the powerhouse they have been. Their window is closing.

And the same trades may be available later but the value they get won't be.
 
smootness said:
They didn't have their best player for half the season. Ok, give them those extra wins. They're still 5 games out of the WC. And if you give them the luck of not having their best player go down, then take away the luck of winning way more games than you should have. You end up around 80ish wins even with Cano.

The goal is not to be a loser for a long time. The goal is to avoid that. By going for it and not getting the most out of their assets, the Mariners would be making it more likely they'd have a long stretch of losing. It would become longer that way.
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They theoretically have a similar amount of money to spend this offseason and again next offseason as the Braves do this year. An extra 50 million makes a ton of difference.

Selling off guarantees at last three years of misery that they actually may well have the financial resources to avoid.

While people point at the Astros, that was much longer and much worse. And it's hardly a guarantee you'll hit on as many guys as the Astros did.

You can ask quite a few teams about that over the years.
 
thewupk said:
It's not all dependent on Harper. But he's leaving and their other players are getting older. They should be a good team but they aren't the powerhouse they have been. Their window is closing.

And the same trades may be available later but the value they get won't be.
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I wouldn't be so sure the Nats window is in all that much danger of being closed for long, if it all.
 
thewupk said:
It's not all dependent on Harper. But he's leaving and their other players are getting older. They should be a good team but they aren't the powerhouse they have been. Their window is closing.

And the same trades may be available later but the value they get won't be.
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Not sure I can get on this train with ya. I see them being pretty solid for years to come. They may not have much pitching coming up, but they have position players to fill in on the cheap.
 
Tapate50 said:
Not sure I can get on this train with ya. I see them being pretty solid for years to come. They may not have much pitching coming up, but they have position players to fill in on the cheap.
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I think their window of WS contenders is over. They are just another team now albeit a good one.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Good teams can make the playoffs. If you can make the playoffs, you can win the World Series.
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Sure. Nats aren't going to be the universal favorite to win the east next year. They won't make the playoffs 4 of the next 5 years. The height of their window is over. Doesn't mean they won't win the WS next year because its baseball.
 
thewupk said:
I think their window of WS contenders is over. They are just another team now albeit a good one.
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Not sure I'm buying "it's over" as long as they've got the money coming off the books they have, can "replace" Harper with Robles, can re-sign Murphy (or Dozier or LeMaiheu to replace him), and still run Scherzer and Strasburg out there twice in a short series if they're healthy and needed.

I'm not completely convinced that letting Harper walk and spending their money to upgrade their roster in other places doesn't make them tougher. Replace Harper with Robles, Murphy with similar production, and Gio with Corbin and see what the projection systems tell you.
 
clvclv said:
Not sure I'm buying "it's over" as long as they've got the money coming off the books they have, can "replace" Harper with Robles, can re-sign Murphy (or Dozier or LeMaiheu to replace him), and still run Scherzer and Strasburg out there twice in a short series if they're healthy and needed.

I'm not completely convinced that letting Harper walk and spending their money to upgrade their roster in other places doesn't make them tougher. Replace Harper with Robles, Murphy with similar production, and Gio with Corbin and see what the projection systems tell you.
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I believe I read recently that they're looking to scale back payroll a bit. I believe right now they're top 5. So while I agree they still have a window, they might not be big spenders.
 
NYCBrave said:
I believe I read recently that they're looking to scale back payroll a bit. I believe right now they're top 5. So while I agree they still have a window, they might not be big spenders.
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Yeah - I don't think they will be either. Even "scaling it back" a bit, they should have plenty to fill holes with Harper ($21.625 million), Wieters ($10.5 million), Herrera (whatever portion of his almost $8 million they paid), and Murphy's ($17.5 million) money off their books.

That's over $56 million coming off, so they could spend $35-$40 million on free-agents and still see significant savings - they're likely going to be shopping for some of the same players AA is.
 
not a fan of the gnats. I think they have too many questions to answer to be viable the next few years. Catching. Pitching. 1base. Manager. Is Eaton broken down due to injuries. Then you have the really scary question of how is Soto going to do in his age 50 season.
 
clvclv said:
Not sure I'm buying "it's over" as long as they've got the money coming off the books they have, can "replace" Harper with Robles, can re-sign Murphy (or Dozier or LeMaiheu to replace him), and still run Scherzer and Strasburg out there twice in a short series if they're healthy and needed.

I'm not completely convinced that letting Harper walk and spending their money to upgrade their roster in other places doesn't make them tougher. Replace Harper with Robles, Murphy with similar production, and Gio with Corbin and see what the projection systems tell you.
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I can tell you it won't be a 90+ win team like they have been.
 
clvclv said:
Yeah - I don't think they will be either. Even "scaling it back" a bit, they should have plenty to fill holes with Harper ($21.625 million), Wieters ($10.5 million), Herrera (whatever portion of his almost $8 million they paid), and Murphy's ($17.5 million) money off their books.

That's over $56 million coming off, so they could spend $35-$40 million on free-agents and still see significant savings - they're likely going to be shopping for some of the same players AA is.
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You should also count the 12m they were paying Gio and the 7m they were paying Madson, the 5.5 they were paying Shawn Kelly, the 5m they were paying Kintzler, and the 4m they were paying Matt Adams.
 
thewupk said:
The sooner they rebuild the better they will be long term. The Braves timed their rebuild while the Nats were the clear class of the division. They are now losing Harper and their window is starting to close while the Braves is opening. Right now the Astros are in a clear contention window and the class of the division. Rebuild now and be on the upswing when the Astros start declining. That would be my plan.
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Not sure the Nats window is closing/closed, i mean...

If they have say.

C- FA/trade
1B- Zimm
2B- FA/Kendrick
SS- Turner
3B- Rendon
LF- Eaton
CF- Robles
RF- Soto

Stras, Roark, Fedde, Max, FA.

Bullpen needs work but that's not a BAD team. They'll have plenty of money to spend this winter, may not go insane since i read the Lerners might cut payroll but they should still be a quality team next year.
 
Nats are at 112 mil pre arb, 150 or so after arb. Their payroll this year was 180 on Opening Day, so i'm not sure how much they'll spend but they could add say a veteran catcher, a LeMetheiu/Murphy/Dozier at 2B, and a veteran starter and a bullpen arm or two.
 
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Heyward said:
Not sure the Nats window is closing/closed, i mean...

If they have say.

C- FA/trade
1B- Zimm
2B- FA/Kendrick
SS- Turner
3B- Rendon
LF- Eaton
CF- Robles
RF- Soto

Stras, Roark, Fedde, Max, FA.

Bullpen needs work but that's not a BAD team. They'll have plenty of money to spend this winter, may not go insane since i read the Lerners might cut payroll but they should still be a quality team next year.
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They also have top 25 prospect Carter Kieboom on the cusp. He's a SS and has star potential.
 
NYCBrave said:
They also have top 25 prospect Carter Kieboom on the cusp. He's a SS and has star potential.
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The Nats biggest problem is starting pitching. What happens once Stras declines and Scherzer starts to dip a little bit, he did in September. Because they have nothing in the pipeline, pitching wise.

They have enough hitting to be fine going forward.
 
thewupk said:
I can tell you it won't be a 90+ win team like they have been.
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Like the Braves weren't going to be a 90 win team in 2018?

Let's cool our jets on the projections a bit since none of us has any clue what their roster will look like in 2 months.
 
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