Crasnick Article On BA

[Southcack77]

Not sure the Nats window is closing/closed, i mean...

If they have say.

C- FA/trade
1B- Zimm
2B- FA/Kendrick
SS- Turner
3B- Rendon
LF- Eaton
CF- Robles
RF- Soto

Stras, Roark, Fedde, Max, FA.

Bullpen needs work but that's not a BAD team. They'll have plenty of money to spend this winter, may not go insane since i read the Lerners might cut payroll but they should still be a quality team next year.

Nats are expected to land around 180 million in payroll this year.

 

[Southcack77]

Like the Braves weren't going to be a 90 win team in 2018?

Let's cool our jets on the projections a bit since none of us has any clue what their roster will look like in 2 months.

I have the over on 90 wins for the Nationals.

They should have won 90 this year according to pythagorean. Harper was a 3.5 win player. Murphy gave them nothing.

They ought to get back more value out of free agency than what those guys produced last season.

 

[thewupk]

Like the Braves weren't going to be a 90 win team in 2018?

Let's cool our jets on the projections a bit since none of us has any clue what their roster will look like in 2 months.

Once again you just show how clueless you are.

The past few seasons the Nats were projected to win well over 90 games. That's a sign of a really good team as the Nats have been. I don't believe that's what the Nats will be for the next few years. They were very could and likely will contend. They just aren't going to be the juggernaut of the division that they have been pretty much since Harper/Stras arrived.

 

[clvclv]

Once again you just show how clueless you are.

The past few seasons the Nats were projected to win well over 90 games. That's a sign of a really good team as the Nats have been. I don't believe that's what the Nats will be for the next few years. They were very could and likely will contend. They just aren't going to be the juggernaut of the division that they have been pretty much since Harper/Stras arrived.

Then why not just say that in the first place rather than "I can tell you it won't be a 90+ win team like they have been."?

You can tell me based on what? If it's just your opinion, what's the harm in saying as much? You consistently pound the drum of believing in the numbers - and that's great - lots of folks (myself included) are much more open to looking more closely at what they tell you than they've ever been. That's no doubt due in large part to what we've learned here.

Your GUESS on October 24th is that they won't be - there's nothing wrong with that, and if their front office doesn't do a good job this winter you may be right - but you're coming off like you have some statistical information to back that up when you have no idea who will be on their team when the season starts.

 

[thewupk]

Then why not just say that in the first place rather than "I can tell you it won't be a 90+ win team like they have been."?

You can tell me based on what? If it's just your opinion, what's the harm in saying as much? You consistently pound the drum of believing in the numbers - and that's great - lots of folks (myself included) are much more open to looking more closely at what they tell you than they've ever been. That's no doubt due in large part to what we've learned here.

Your GUESS on October 24th is that they won't be - there's nothing wrong with that, and if their front office doesn't do a good job this winter you may be right - but you're coming off like you have some statistical information to back that up when you have no idea who will be on their team when the season starts.

Where have I pounded the drum about the numbers regarding the Nats and their contention window starting to close? Yes, once the offseason is over we will have a clear picture on the team they will have in 2019. I still maintain that Harper leaving (if he does) signals the beginning of the end of their window. That is my opinion of course.

 

[Southcack77]

If the Nats were a pythagorean 90 win team and Harper was worth 3.5 fWar (less than 2 bWAR) and Murphy was basically a non-entity, then i think the Nats bringing back Harper is likely to net them a better season than last and their cutting ties with Harper will likely end up with an offseason that brings back more than 3.5 wins.

So give me over 90 for that Nats based on what I think their offseason will look like. I'd probably go under 90 with the Braves based on what I think their offseason is likely to look like.

Let's revisit when the trades and signings are complete and we can readjust.

I see no barrier to the Nats continuing to be the favorite in the East this year. Going forward it's anyone's guess. They certainly have demonstrated they are willing to spend to bring in great players in the past.

 

[nsacpi]

If the Nats were a pythagorean 90 win team and Harper was worth 3.5 fWar (less than 2 bWAR) and Murphy was basically a non-entity, then i think the Nats bringing back Harper is likely to net them a better season than last and their cutting ties with Harper will likely end up with an offseason that brings back more than 3.5 wins.

So give me over 90 for that Nats based on what I think their offseason will look like. I'd probably go under 90 with the Braves based on what I think their offseason is likely to look like.

Let's revisit when the trades and signings are complete and we can readjust.

I see no barrier to the Nats continuing to be the favorite in the East this year. Going forward it's anyone's guess. They certainly have demonstrated they are willing to spend to bring in great players in the past.

Agreed. On paper the gnats are likely to project to slightly more wins in 2019 after all the off-season moves get made. I also think the Mets will project to be better than the Phillies.

Next season the NL East gets to play the AL Central. Should be at least 2 playoff teams coming out of the NL East.