Crowdsourcing help re Mets

[Enscheff]

The spreadsheet also has data on outcomes. How hard the ball was hit.

So I suggested a couple things:

1) Use all of this to generate a measure of when a pitcher is losing it.

2) I thought also it would be useful to look at consistency by inning (variance) of the different measures.

3) Look at whether the pitcher is able to step it up depending on the situation (runner in scoring position) or facing the other team's best hitter.

The data is basically for one game, both starting pitchers.

That is a very limited amount of data, but if it is detailed enough he could still do some interesting things. However, just having 1 game of data isn't enough to say "Syndergaard can only throw 90 pitches". It definitely isn't enough data to say "guys get hit hard after 22 batters" because there were only ~40 batters in the entire game.

I'm 100% positive the kid will be evaluated on the process he develops, not the actual results. Your idea for generating a stat to tell when a pitcher is tiring is excellent, but don't base it on outcomes because those are highly variable events. Make sure he can explain what that means, and why 1 game of data is too small of a sample to draw general rules from.

Base the measure on aspects of the individual pitches like velo and spin rate. If arm slot data is present, look for a guy losing consistency in his arm slot. If location data is available, look for guys getting wild (the data should be represented as distance from the center of the zone, so also look for the pitches missing over the middle of the plate, not just off the plate). Things like that.

I would be willing to bet the data given to him was chosen precisely because there is a nugget of info in there that proves something the Mets believe in from an overall philosophy standpoint. One or both pitchers will have demonstrated a decline in velo, spin, location, arm slot, or something else the Mets key on, making this particular set of data a good "example" in their eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if this particular data set showed the Mets handled the pitcher "correctly", while the other team didn't.

 

[nsacpi]

Now for the third and toughest question (hypothetical): If he has a choice between working for Novartis or the Mets which job should he take.

 

[nsacpi]

That is a very limited amount of data, but if it is detailed enough he could still do some interesting things. However, just having 1 game of data isn't enough to say "Syndergaard can only throw 90 pitches". It definitely isn't enough data to say "guys get hit hard after 22 batters" because there were only ~40 batters in the entire game.

I'm 100% positive the kid will be evaluated on the process he develops, not the actual results. Your idea for generating a stat to tell when a pitcher is tiring is excellent, but don't base it on outcomes because those are highly variable events. Make sure he can explain what that means, and why 1 game of data is too small of a sample to draw general rules from.

Base the measure on aspects of the individual pitches like velo and spin rate. If arm slot data is present, look for a guy losing consistency in his arm slot. If location data is availabkle, look for guys getting wild (the data should be represented as distance from the center of the zone, so also look for the pitches missing over the middle of the plate, not just off the plate). Things like that.

I would be willing to bet the data given to him was chosen precisely because there is a nugget of info in there that proves something the Mets believe in from an overall philosophy standpoint. One or both pitchers will have demonstrated a decline in velo, spin, location, arm slot, or something else the Mets key on, making this particular set of data a good "example" in their eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if this particular data set showed the Mets handled the pitcher "correctly", while the other team didn't.

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

Btw the data is for two very good young but not yet elite starting pitchers. One a lefty and one a righty.

 

[msstate7]

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

If he gets the job, will he hire enscheff as his assistant?

 

[nsacpi]

If he gets the job, will he hire enscheff as his assistant?

Enscheff will have game tickets anytime he is in NY.

 

[nsacpi]

Moving back to the Braves. I think Snit will have a lot more data and analysis of this kind in 2018 than he did in 2017. Now it will be up to him to make something of it.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

Btw the data is for two very good young but not yet elite starting pitchers. One a lefty and one a righty.

Also make sure he mentions the error associated with Statcast tracking. He should have error bars on his plots. I bet they won't be expecting that level of detail. Something like this is a good primer:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/

He MUST reference his sources too. If he uses the Statcast error values from fivethirtyeight, make SURE he says he got them from fivethirtyeight. I would never hire a guy who I found out passed the work of others off as his own.

 

[nsacpi]

Also make sure he mentions the error associated with Statcast tracking. He should have error bars on his plots. I bet they won't be expecting that level os detail. Something like this is a good primer:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/

He MUST reference his sources too. I would never hire a guy who I found out passed the work of others off as his own.

How should he refer to you?

 

[Enscheff]

Now for the third and toughest question (hypothetical): If he has a choice between working for Novartis or the Mets which job should he take.

LOL a job offer from Novartes will come with a pay 3x that of the what the Mets will be paying. He might not even be paid by the Mets at first if he's an intern.

MLB teams rely on the fact guys want to be part of MLB teams to get very talented people cheaply.

 

[Enscheff]

How should he refer to you?

I meant pulling data from places like FG, BRef, Cots or fivethirtyeight.

 

[nsacpi]

I meant pulling data from places like FG, BRef, Cots or fivethirtyeight.

come on man...i guess you don't do humor when you having your thinking cap on

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

How should he refer to you?

Formerly known as Randy Ventura’s Stolen Bases.

To the hypothetical: If he super loves baseball, Mets. If he needs/wants money, kinda super loves baseball but not totally, or is okay with working for big pharma, definitely Novartis

 

[nsacpi]

Formerly known as Randy Ventura’s Stolen Bases.

To the hypothetical: If he super loves baseball, Mets. If he needs/wants money, kinda super loves baseball but not totally, or is okay with working for big pharma, definitely Novartis

I'm pretty sure he'd go with the Mets.

 

[thethe]

Does anyone study the rate at which a ball moves on the x/y plane as opposed to total movement?

Differebtial equations could come in handy

 

[clvclv]

A young man I know is interviewing with the Mets front office. The question is how would you approach the 2018-2019 off-season if you were running the Mets.

Any thoughts.

I know this verges on treason, but please overlook that aspect.

Apply for another job???

 

[Enscheff]

Does anyone study the rate at which a ball moves on the x/y plane as opposed to total movement?

Differebtial equations could come in handy

Huh? First of all, baseball movement is referred to in the X (left/right) and Z (up/down) planes. The Y plane is measured as velocity towards home plate.

The magnus, frictional and gravitational forces on a thrown baseball are all constant, therefore the acceleration of the ball is constant throughout it's entire trajectory. There is no reason to derive anything beyond total movement.

Unless this kid has a degree in physics, I would suggest staying away from this topic and embarrassing himself. As tehteh just demonstrated, nothing looks worse than someone trying to talk about something outside the content of their brain pan. If he wants to learn about it though, Dr. Alan Nathan has written many excellent articles about the physics behind baseball movement.

 

[4maddux_cy's]

LOL a job offer from Novartes will come with a pay 3x that of the what the Mets will be paying. He might not even be paid by the Mets at first if he's an intern.

MLB teams rely on the fact guys want to be part of MLB teams to get very talented people cheaply.

Pretty much every major college and pro sports team does. And we get addicted to the work.

 

[Enscheff]

Pretty much every major college and pro sports team does. And we get addicted to the work.

Yeah, if I were coming out of college right now with D1 playing experience along with my physics and computer science degrees fresh off the presses, I would be looking to work one of those 7 day a week, 80 hours per week jobs for little to no pay in hopes of moving up in an MLB organization.

Unfortunately, those jobs didn't exist 15 years ago, and there's no way I could get into that now haha.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I'm pretty sure he'd go with the Mets.

To be fair, I would probably choose Mets too in his situation...if they weren’t the mortal enemy and all that. But I don’t have a degree in any of this, so that’s why I didn’t give advice. The stuff Enscheff said sounded good, and I agree from experience with job interviews that there’s probably a trick to that data sample.

 

[thethe]

Huh? First of all, baseball movement is referred to in the X (left/right) and Z (up/down) planes. The Y plane is measured as velocity towards home plate.

The magnus, frictional and gravitational forces on a thrown baseball are all constant, therefore the acceleration of the ball is constant throughout it's entire trajectory. There is no reason to derive anything beyond total movement.

Unless this kid has a degree in physics, I would suggest staying away from this topic and embarrassing himself. As tehteh just demonstrated, nothing looks worse than someone trying to talk about something outside the content of their brain pan. If he wants to learn about it though, Dr. Alan Nathan has written many excellent articles about the physics behind baseball movement.

It's another way to look at the impact of spin rates.