Dansby Swanson and Sample Sizes

His start of the season is a slump. The same kinda slump every hitter will have multiple times over the course of the year. SSS. If he's hitting .200 on June 15 then freak out.
 
Southcack77 said:
Why would you try to figure it out now rather than just waiting until you had a good sample size. Seems unnecessary.
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it was a bit subtle but one of my points is that the AA data are a decent sample and more predictive than the major league data
 
I'm not saying I agree with the decision to rush him to the major, but if you've been paying attention, it was clearly a move done by the organization with marketing in mind to sell tickets. You can see the way theyve put him in the spotlight from day one on social media. Who's to say how much revenue/excitement that's helped to generate in the short term in terms of ticket sales and merchandise.

All that being said I disagreed with the move, but I can at least see what they were trying to do.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm not saying I agree with the decision to rush him to the major, but if you've been paying attention, it was clearly a move done by the organization with marketing in mind to sell tickets. You can see the way theyve put him in the spotlight from day one on social media. Who's to say how much revenue/excitement that's helped to generate in the short term in terms of ticket sales and merchandise.

All that being said I disagreed with the move, but I can at least see what they were trying to do.
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Is that because he's white and from the Georgia? Seems to me a better person to market would be Ender because he's young and also really good already.
 
thewupk said:
Is that because he's white and from the Georgia? Seems to me a better person to market would be Ender because he's young and also really good already.
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Going to the games this weekend and seeing the crowds, them marketing Dansby was probably the better move.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm not saying I agree with the decision to rush him to the major, but if you've been paying attention, it was clearly a move done by the organization with marketing in mind to sell tickets. You can see the way theyve put him in the spotlight from day one on social media. Who's to say how much revenue/excitement that's helped to generate in the short term in terms of ticket sales and merchandise.

All that being said I disagreed with the move, but I can at least see what they were trying to do.
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I don't think so

I think ss was terrible. Right or wrong I think hart and coppy think he's special. They prob love this struggle bc it will hold down his extension. I don't think they want to have a team with 10 rookies on it. They see dansby as a leader and want him to lead the waves. They don't want Ozzie and him having the same clock. Probably not as sure they can sign albies long term.

Dansby is going to get the ender deal after this year or next
 
Russ2dollas said:
I don't think so

I think ss was terrible. Right or wrong I think hart and coppy think he's special. They prob love this struggle bc it will hold down his extension. I don't think they want to have a team with 10 rookies on it. They see dansby as a leader and want him to lead the waves. They don't want Ozzie and him having the same clock. Probably not as sure they can sign albies long term.

Dansby is going to get the ender deal after this year or next
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Coppy gave an interview last year that indicated it never occurred to him to call up Dansby until the two senior Johns talked him into it.
 
nsacpi said:
Coppy gave an interview last year that indicated it never occurred to him to call up Dansby until the two senior Johns talked him into it.
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And in every interview it's clear coppy thinks everything hart does and says is pure genius
 
nsacpi said:
Coppy gave an interview last year that indicated it never occurred to him to call up Dansby until the two senior Johns talked him into it.
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Right, and the 2 senior Johns are worried about the franchises bottom line, Coppy is not. So that plays back to my point.
 
NYCBrave said:
Right, and the 2 senior Johns are worried about the franchises bottom line, Coppy is not. So that plays back to my point.
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I was responding to this point by another poster:

Right or wrong I think hart and coppy think he's special. They prob love this struggle bc it will hold down his extension.

At least one member of the front office did not think he was ready last year.
 
nsacpi said:
Sounds like you want in on the bet.

The BABIP will normalize. The problem for Dansby is the 20%+ strikeout rate (which is not too surprising considering he was at 19% in AA) that he has had both last year and this year in the majors. He will probably not get that down to an acceptable level until sometime next year. That's one of the reasons a year of seasoning in AAA would have been a good idea for him.

Btw Albies was at 15% on the strikeout rate last year in AA. Which is more along the lines of what you want to see from a prospect. A 20%+ number is ok for a power hitter, but not for guys like Swanson and Albies.
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Not at all. Betting on young players one way or the other is like betting horse races for 2 year olds. Way too much variability there to make a solid prediction one way or the other. Keep in mind that I still think we screwed up Heyward's offensive development by bringing him up as early as we did. It wouldn't shock me to see the same thing happen to Swanson.

My guess on Dansby's upside is around average bat (plus for a SS) and very good defense, but that and $10 will buy you a case of Frio Light. No predictions from me on when he actually reaches that ceiling, if at all.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I don't think so

I think ss was terrible. Right or wrong I think hart and coppy think he's special. They prob love this struggle bc it will hold down his extension. I don't think they want to have a team with 10 rookies on it. They see dansby as a leader and want him to lead the waves. They don't want Ozzie and him having the same clock. Probably not as sure they can sign albies long term.

Dansby is going to get the ender deal after this year or next
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Swanson has already made millions. Those types of players are much harder to extend than guys who signed for peanuts...like Albies.
 
Russ2dollas said:
And in every interview it's clear coppy thinks everything hart does and says is pure genius
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Coppy hides behind the two johns on every controversial subject.

However, I think it's very possible that coppy's actions would have been different if he had been the only decision maker. But that's just a theory.
 
Southcack77 said:
Coppy hides behind the two johns on every controversial subject.

However, I think it's very possible that coppy's actions would have been different if he had been the only decision maker. But that's just a theory.
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I have to give him (and the entire FO), the benefit of the doubt that the entire rebuild would have been handled differently if not for the new park opening.

Hopefully they are able to rebuild effectively despite not optimizing their resources 100% efficiently. They need to get lucky on a few pitchers (which hasn't even remotely happened yet) in order to cover up those inefficiencies.
 
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