nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Gohara will have to step up to the plate
Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism
- Thread starter Horsehide Harry
- Start date
Gohara will have to step up to the plate
Let's not tempt the big fella
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The Braves are incredibly unlikely to win anything this year. As far as compared to last year there's a bit of a mix bag.
Address the changes
LF Acuna vs. Kemp - A push offensively. Kemp provided about league average offense I think Acuna probably starts from that point before evolving past. But I'm confident that Acuna will be a much better overall when defense is factored in and long term it isn't even gonna be close. Acuna could be better this year already but by the time he settles into the leaguehe'll soar past Kemp's Braves production.
2B Albies vs. Phillips. In his prime Phillips was a power bat, lately he's about a 10 HR per year guy. I think Ozzie can do that. I was concerned with Ozzie's power but as he moved up through the minors his power improved. He hit 6 homers in 244 PA and that is possibly out of the realm of the norm (meaning he may not be a 20 homer per year guy) but I don't think he'll struggle replacing Phillip's power. I think overall they'll be close in terms of offensive production, but while Phillips is a good defender, there's a chance Ozzie could be in Gold Glove contention.
That's gonna be it for the newbies. You mentioned Adams but Adams's added value came replacing Freeman. If Freeman plays 150 games anything we lost from Adams going away is wiped away 5 fold.
Let's look at each position vs. Last year
C - Flowers/Suzuki - Likely to be worst from last year. They played to career high seasons in their platoon. Hope they continue it but I wouldn't bet on it.
1B - Freeman - Health ultimately is the key. He may be a little down offensively per PA but if he's healthier he'll be a net gain in value for sure.
SS - Swanson - Gonna improve, expect an uptick in power, BABIP moving up to a marked improvement from a replacement level player to an above average player roughly
3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Finding the balance here will be key. one is likely to be an OK player. It probably is Camargo. Just a placeholder though. If we get a 1 WAR from 3B I'll be happy.
CF - Inciarte - Cannot imagine a dropoff here.
RF - Markakis - Now personally, from what I've seen, I'd stick Acuna in RF and Markaksi in LF so his limited range is not quite as breaking. Will the Braves be smart enough to do that? Who knows. But what I do know is Markakis is going down. What I would like to see is generally speaking Markakis has started off hot and chilled off after the AS break for us. So in the second half of the season I'd like to bring in Peterson and see what happens.
Address the changes
LF Acuna vs. Kemp - A push offensively. Kemp provided about league average offense I think Acuna probably starts from that point before evolving past. But I'm confident that Acuna will be a much better overall when defense is factored in and long term it isn't even gonna be close. Acuna could be better this year already but by the time he settles into the leaguehe'll soar past Kemp's Braves production.
2B Albies vs. Phillips. In his prime Phillips was a power bat, lately he's about a 10 HR per year guy. I think Ozzie can do that. I was concerned with Ozzie's power but as he moved up through the minors his power improved. He hit 6 homers in 244 PA and that is possibly out of the realm of the norm (meaning he may not be a 20 homer per year guy) but I don't think he'll struggle replacing Phillip's power. I think overall they'll be close in terms of offensive production, but while Phillips is a good defender, there's a chance Ozzie could be in Gold Glove contention.
That's gonna be it for the newbies. You mentioned Adams but Adams's added value came replacing Freeman. If Freeman plays 150 games anything we lost from Adams going away is wiped away 5 fold.
Let's look at each position vs. Last year
C - Flowers/Suzuki - Likely to be worst from last year. They played to career high seasons in their platoon. Hope they continue it but I wouldn't bet on it.
1B - Freeman - Health ultimately is the key. He may be a little down offensively per PA but if he's healthier he'll be a net gain in value for sure.
SS - Swanson - Gonna improve, expect an uptick in power, BABIP moving up to a marked improvement from a replacement level player to an above average player roughly
3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Finding the balance here will be key. one is likely to be an OK player. It probably is Camargo. Just a placeholder though. If we get a 1 WAR from 3B I'll be happy.
CF - Inciarte - Cannot imagine a dropoff here.
RF - Markakis - Now personally, from what I've seen, I'd stick Acuna in RF and Markaksi in LF so his limited range is not quite as breaking. Will the Braves be smart enough to do that? Who knows. But what I do know is Markakis is going down. What I would like to see is generally speaking Markakis has started off hot and chilled off after the AS break for us. So in the second half of the season I'd like to bring in Peterson and see what happens.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?
CF - Inciarte
2B - Albies
1B - Freeman
C - Flowers/Suzuki
RF - Markakis
3B - Camargo
SS - Swanson
LF - LAdams
That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.
Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?
As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).
If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.
This is going to be an ugly offense.
CF - Inciarte
2B - Albies
1B - Freeman
C - Flowers/Suzuki
RF - Markakis
3B - Camargo
SS - Swanson
LF - LAdams
That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.
Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?
As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).
If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.
This is going to be an ugly offense.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.
Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?
Ugh.
Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?
Ugh.
Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think you have it pegged. Once Acuna comes in I think he will initially be slotted in the #6 spot behind Markakis.
I don't think the lineup is too LH. We have RH hitters at catcher, left (Acuna) and short. The two switch hitters (Albies and Camargo) are both stronger from the right side. Two of the three LH hitters (Freeman and Inciarte) hit lefties well. The only one who should occasionally be sat against left-handed pitching is Muk.
When we upgrade in left (with Acuna moving to right) and third, I think it makes sense that one is a lefty and one is a righty hitter. Or one is a switch hitter. It would not make sense to get two righty hitters or two lefty hitters.
Southcack77
Well-known member
He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.
Still a below average hitter with poor speed. Albies will be a better fit even if he gets on base slightly less.
Based on 2018 projections, the lineup optimization tool says (4.453 runs per game):
Markakis
Freeman
Albies
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Swanson
Camargo
Pitcher
There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:
- Marakis leading off due to his high OBP
- Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter
- Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
- Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
- Camargo batting 8th
- Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.
I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:
Markakis
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher
But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:
Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher
Markakis
Freeman
Albies
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Swanson
Camargo
Pitcher
There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:
- Marakis leading off due to his high OBP
- Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter
- Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
- Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
- Camargo batting 8th
- Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.
I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:
Markakis
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher
But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:
Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher
OBP is more valuable than it shows in OPS but let's not get excited here. Neck is a mid to high 90's WRC+ hitter. There is only so much you can do with that.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.
In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.
It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.
I could certainly be convinced that Inciarte outperforming his xwOBA is a real skill set he possesses. He checks off all the criteria I've determined contribute to it (average or better speed, batting LHed, evenly spraying batted balls, low FB%).
If they are essentially equal hitters, and Inciarte is unquestionably the better base runner, I have no real issue with him leading off.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Kemp cast a Yuge shadow. He protected him from SD before getting here. So it is safe to assume he can still protect him from LA.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Holy crap, a .339 OPS would be the worst season in the history of baseball lol. I'm confident I could roll out there and post a .400+ OPS lol
I'll take the under on your OPS!
I stepped in vs ~85 mph a few months ago at the age of 38. I have no idea how I ever handled 90+ mph in college 20 years ago haha.
I'm not sure I could even put a ball in play vs MLB pitching anymore. My OPS over 100 PAs would quite likely be .050-.100, all based on getting lucky enough to be walked or beaned at the league average walk rate of 8.5%.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Enscheff steps in at the plate....
CLVCLV steps in to throw.....
Enscheff - take your base, don't charge the mound