Depth Check at the Halfway Mark

[msstate7]

What range are those splits? BRef has Camargo at .956 for his MLB career vs lhp, and .710 vs rhp, which generally jibes with his minor league disparities. However, this season, he’s posting a superior OPS against rhp (.802 vs .763)—pretty much entirely thanks to a .130 isoOBP (vs .044 as a rhb against lefties). So basically, almost all of his massive bb-rate improvement has come as a lhb—and it’s been enough to even out his splits, even though his power’s been much better as a rhb.

If that trend holds, Camargo may not need a platoon partner after all—but the team may be best-served hitting him at different spots in the lineup, depending on the handedness of the opposing starter.

(Tangent: interestingly, in 2012 in DSL and 2013 at Danville, before he was switch-hitting, he actually hit rhp better than lhp as a purely rh batter.)

I was looking at 2017 splits. I dumb

 

[nsacpi]

What range are those splits? BRef has Camargo at .956 for his MLB career vs lhp, and .710 vs rhp, which generally jibes with his minor league disparities. However, this season, he’s posting a superior OPS against rhp (.802 vs .763)—pretty much entirely thanks to a .130 isoOBP (vs .044 as a rhb against lefties). So basically, almost all of his massive bb-rate improvement has come as a lhb—and it’s been enough to even out his splits, even though his power’s been much better as a rhb.

If that trend holds, Camargo may not need a platoon partner after all—but the team may be best-served hitting him at different spots in the lineup, depending on the handedness of the opposing starter.

(Tangent: interestingly, in 2012 in DSL and 2013 at Danville, before he was switch-hitting, he actually hit rhp better than lhp as a purely rh batter.)

Splits data take a while to stabilize. For someone who has been around like Moose, I'd look at three years of data. That's more predictive than just what his splits have been like this year. For Camargo I would look at career major league splits data as well as what he has done in AAA and AA the past couple years.

 

[jpx7]

Splits data take a while to stabilize. For someone who has been around like Moose, I'd look at three years of data. That's more predictive than just what his splits have been like this year. For Camargo I would look at career major league splits data as well as what he has done in AAA and AA the past couple years.

Which is why I mentioned Camargo’s minor-league splits when citing his career MLB splits, since there is so little sample to the latter.

But I do think it’s noteworthy—especially as someone who’s advocated for platooning Camargo this year—that the bb-rate/OBP improvement we’ve discussed has been entirely from his heretofore weaker side (from which he’s unsurprisingly seen about 70% of his PAs). Like I said, if that trend holds, it would force yet another re-evaluation of what sort of piece Camargo can be for the Cobb Countiers.

 

[nsacpi]

Which is why I mentioned Camargo’s minor-league splits when citing his career MLB splits, since there is so little sample to the latter.

But I do think it’s noteworthy—especially as someone who’s advocated for platooning Camargo this year—that the bb-rate/OBP improvement we’ve discussed has been entirely from his heretofore weaker side (from which he’s unsurprisingly seen about 70% of his PAs). Like I said, if that trend holds, it would force yet another re-evaluation of what sort of piece Camargo can be for the Cobb Countiers.

I think his walk rate from the left side is likely to turn out to be one of those small sample flukes. The downward trend in his overall strikeout rate is more likely to be real.

 

[jpx7]

I think his walk rate from the left side is likely to turn out to be one of those small sample flukes. The downward trend in his overall strikeout rate is more likely to be real.

I’m sort of in a “fool me once” place with La Camargue where I’m hesitant to doubt now that he’s made my previous doubts seem dubious. But it will be worth watching going forward, whether the Braves bring in another MIF or not.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Contending teams have to consider weaknesses not just in their regular lineup and starting rotation. They have to consider scenarios about injuries after the deadline and how well they are equipped to deal with injuries at each position. So lets have a look at the team's depth and see where the needs might be.

Catcher: We have two quality players in Suzuki and Flowers. If one went down, the other would play three-quarters of the games rather than half. We have replacement level guys in Stewart and Brantley in AAA.

Infield: On the major league bench we have Culberson, Flaherty and Santana. In the minors, Ruiz and Franco. Let's be honest here. They are all replacement level players. Culberson has been magical. But look at his history and his strikeout and walk rates this year and his BABIP this year and you can see it is 90% pixie dust. Acquiring a player who is above replacement level would help a lot whether he be a starter or bench player. I'm not sure the distinction matters.

Outfield: Santana, Culberson and Tucker are the options. Replacement level players.

Starting pitcher: The rotation currently has Folty, Newk, Teheran, Sanchez, Fried. There are some other options currently on the DL: McCarthy and Soroka. And other options in AAA: Allard and Gohara. I think our depth with starting pitching is pretty good, even accounting for the greater likelihood of injury.

Right handed relievers: We have Viz, Winkler, Carle, Moylan, Wisler and Jackson in the majors. Phillips, Parsons and Sims in AAA. I'm ok with this group. Not ok if Viz is not able to come back and return to the form he has shown so far this year. There is a potential need for an acquisition here depending on Viz' health.

Left handed relievers: Minter, Freeman, Biddle. Potentially Fried and Gohara could round out this group. Given the reverse splits of Biddle and Freeman, I think there is a need for a situational lefty.

Summary: It is little remarked on around here, but except for catcher we have a bench of replacement level players. Pixie dust on Flaherty early in the season and Culberson more recently has camouflaged this. But it is the reality. A replacement level bench is ok if you don't plan on contending, but I think our ambitions are now to play meaningful baseball in September and October. It doesn't matter if you call a player like Solarte a regular or a bench player. His effect is to improve our depth and I think there is clearly a need to do that. Assuming it can be done at reasonable cost, we should be looking to acquire someone like that.

Looking at things from a depth perspective also highlights the fact that we are in better shape as far as starting pitching goes and acquiring someone like Hamels is less of a priority.

I'm on board with this assessment for the most part. I actually kind of like what I've seen from Santana thus far at AAA and his short stint in the majors. I think he could be an asset on the bench who is slightly above replacement level this year. But the rest of the bench is obviously lacking for a contending team. I've been on board with the Solarte addition from day 1. I think he is the ideal player for us at the moment. Also agree on the need for a lefty reliever. Claudio is my guy there. Would also be okay with us adding another righty reliever, if not for anything else just to provide depth.

 

[JxnMissFan]

I would take the gamble that Donaldson is ready to play in late August and try to pick him up cheap.

 

[Russ2dollas]

If we can get a 3b for wisler level pieces we should do it imo

Another bench bat

And a dh for World Series