Did our FO miscalculate and misjudge salaries

M

Millwood1Hitter

Anytime Now Frankie...
going forward, this is my question at this point in time?

I know and understand we have financial constraints and have to work within that framework that ownership lays out...

But in lieu of negotiations with Heyward and then missing out on Tomas as a fallback option makes me believe that we completely misjudged where player salaries are going and could have major consequences going forward.

Then you take a look at the contracts that guys like Sandovol and more importantly Stanton and it makes one wonder.

I don't know, I wasn't comfortable giving Heyward 25+ million a year until he showed more offensive consistency, but then knee jerking and trading him so soon in the offseason to clear potential payroll to sign Tomas and losing out on Tomas is baffling to say the least. And when you take into consideration what a guy like Sandovol got and the Heyward at say 22 million doesn't look so bad.

So where does that out someone like Justin going forward.

All we heard is about expanded revenue for the Braves going forward and potential payroll bumps but it appears to me that unless something drastically changes going forward we are in the same boat we have been since 2000, and that is we will not be able to retain and be major players at all in FA and acquire the necessary pieces to put a team potentially over the edge.
 
Millwood1Hitter said:
going forward, this is my question at this point in time?

I know and understand we have financial constraints and have to work within that framework that ownership lays out...

But in lieu of negotiations with Heyward and then missing out on Tomas as a fallback option makes me believe that we completely misjudged where player salaries are going and could have major consequences going forward.

Then you take a look at the contracts that guys like Sandovol and more importantly Stanton and it makes one wonder.

I don't know, I wasn't comfortable giving Heyward 25+ million a year until he showed more offensive consistency, but then knee jerking and trading him so soon in the offseason to clear potential payroll to sign Tomas and losing out on Tomas is baffling to say the least. And when you take into consideration what a guy like Sandovol got and the Heyward at say 22 million doesn't look so bad.

So where does that out someone like Justin going forward.

All we heard is about expanded revenue for the Braves going forward and potential payroll bumps but it appears to me that unless something drastically changes going forward we are in the same boat we have been since 2000, and that is we will not be able to retain and be major players at all in FA and acquire the necessary pieces to put a team potentially over the edge.
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That's the rub for me. I was all over Wren when he was impatient and that is going to remain my theme with this group until I see a blueprint unveiled.
 
The early signings tend to be more expensive (in $/win terms). The teams that wait get better prices.

The Heyward thing is still rather mysterious to me. Yes, he is going to be pricey. But it also seems he was open to taking a bit less than market to play in Atlanta. I think the difference might have been Heyward and his agent know market was 25M/year or more. Maybe they were willing to settle for 23, but the team didn't want to go more than 20. There is a difference between a 2M/year discount and a 5M/year one and that might have been the gap between the two parties.
 
nsacpi said:
The early signings tend to be more expensive (in $/win terms). The teams that wait get better prices.

The Heyward thing is still rather mysterious to me. Yes, he is going to be pricey. But it also seems he was open to taking a bit less than market to play in Atlanta. I think the difference might have been Heyward and his agent know market was 25M/year or more. Maybe they were willing to settle for 23, but the team didn't want to go more than 20. There is a difference between a 2M/year discount and a 5M/year one and that might have been the gap between the two parties.
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My question is, with expanded revenues from the TV deals, is our payroll expected to rise significantly in the next few years? It seems like players are getting more expensive at a rate much faster than our payroll is expanding. We continue to sink towards the bottom of the league in team payroll.
 
NYCBrave said:
My question is, with expanded revenues from the TV deals, is our payroll expected to rise significantly in the next few years? It seems like players are getting more expensive at a rate much faster than our payroll is expanding. We continue to sink towards the bottom of the league in team payroll.
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It is rising gradually from the national and local tv deals. But keep in mind we had an unusual leap upward last year due to the late Santana signing. McGwirk has said payroll won't go down this year, which is actually a good outcome when you consider last year's jump up. Btw the decision on Heyward was not constrained by the 2015 budget since his salary for 2015 is already set and well below market. The issue was really how it would have fit into the budget after 2015. Realistically we have room for one more big contract and only one. Could have been Heyward. Could be Justin. Could be Lester. We could defer making a big signing for a while. It is an important choice because once it is made it will probably be our last big signing for a while. Probably until the BJ contract expires.
 
NYCBrave said:
My question is, with expanded revenues from the TV deals, is our payroll expected to rise significantly in the next few years? It seems like players are getting more expensive at a rate much faster than our payroll is expanding. We continue to sink towards the bottom of the league in team payroll.
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I think it is, but we just dealt $11m to StL and $14m comes off the books when JU leaves, so even if it wasn't, there's sufficient money there to have bought Tomas if they'd felt strongly about him.

Really that deal is 4/$44 with a two year player option. I think it's possible that they liked him, but not that much. He's not riskless, not at all. Some foreign players come here and fall on their faces, or are mediocre. They're not all Jose Abreu.

So reading the tea leaves, I think we trade for young controllable vets, like a good midmarket team should. I think we'll get a good deal for Justin, but I don't think it will be quick and it won't be for prospects.

I don't think our payroll will ever be top three as it was under Ted, but I expect we'll stay top third. We'll have to do it with scouting, signing, drafting and development. StL is a model franchise, but they bade Pujols goodbye when he wanted $250m. We'll be much the same.

As much as we bitch, it's a well-run organization. They recognized we were getting away from what made us great, and they adjusted. Let's all take a deep breath and see how the offseason unfolds.
 
We could have signed Tomas. The question is whether this would have been the best allocation of our funds. I'm glad we didn't sign him. By all accounts he is not as good as Abreu and Castillo. Probably not as good as Cespedes. The opt out also limits how much upside there is for the team.
 
I don't think they could have possibly misjudged player salaries. No contract signed so far has been outrageous. In fact, some, like the Hanley and Stanton deals, could be considered less than what the predicted market would yield. I think the simple fact is that the Braves didn't feel like Heyward was worth $200M, whether they were right or wrong is certainly open for debate.

The distressing event was missing out on Tomas. 6/68 is a hell of a lot less than most predicted he would get, and there is simply no way the Braves didn't have the money to match or beat that deal.

Now "the plan" is a lot less clear because I just don't see any way the Braves can add the type of offensive talent they need going into 2017. JUp, Gattis and Minor can probably bring back 3 legit MLB impact players, but the Braves need 3B, and all 3 OF spots upgraded if those 3 are dealt. Leaving Gattis in the OF can't possibly be a real option.
 
nsacpi said:
We could have signed Tomas. The question is whether this would have been the best allocation of our funds. I'm glad we didn't sign him. By all accounts he is not as good as Abreu and Castillo. Probably not as good as Cespedes. The opt out also limits how much upside there is for the team.
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I agree, I feel like a signing like Moncada could be a better use of the money.
 
Tapate50 said:
I agree, I feel like a signing like Moncada could be a better use of the money.
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If the Braves couldn't pull the trigger on $70M for 6 years of Tomas, what makes you think they would pull the trigger on $100M ($30M bonus, $30M tax, up to $40M in salary through his 6 years of control) for Moncada?

Sorry, but signing Moncada is probably less likely than signing Lester.
 
Enscheff said:
If the Braves couldn't pull the trigger on $70M for 6 years of Tomas, what makes you think they would pull the trigger on $100M ($30M bonus, $30M tax, up to $40M in salary through his 6 years of control) for Moncada?

Sorry, but signing Moncada is probably less likely than signing Lester.
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I'm don't believe they "couldn't" go 6yrs/$70M on Tomas, I think it's they wouldn't.
 
Do we know the Braves didn't go more than 70 million for Tomas? Tomas made it fairly clear that he wasn't simply looking for the highest bid, but instead may have preferred something with less yrs. Perhaps the Braves offered similar or more but didn't want to include the opt out clause?
 
I don't think it really matters why they didn't land Tomas, only that they didn't make it happen. It was pretty clear the plan was to convert Heyward and JUp to long term assets, and then sign Tomas as another long term asset to replace one of them. They got best out by a $68M offer that was substantially less than the predicted signing amount would be.

Fact of the matter is they didn't get it done, and now it's going to be very hard to infuse the talent into this organization required to compete by 2017.
 
Very hard to infuse talent by 2017? We already have Teheran/Wood/Minor/Miller/Kimbrel/Freeman/Gattis/Simmons. Just fill in the rest of the slots with average players and that's a playoff team.
 
Enscheff said:
If the Braves couldn't pull the trigger on $70M for 6 years of Tomas, what makes you think they would pull the trigger on $100M ($30M bonus, $30M tax, up to $40M in salary through his 6 years of control) for Moncada?

Sorry, but signing Moncada is probably less likely than signing Lester.
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Because he is widely considered a better talent and a fit at many different positions? Apples/Oranges

Braves likely didn't offer an opt out to Tomas.

Just because they wouldn't go 6/70 for Tomas (and they could have, we don't know) has nothing to do with Moncada
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I think it is, but we just dealt $11m to StL and $14m comes off the books when JU leaves, so even if it wasn't, there's sufficient money there to have bought Tomas if they'd felt strongly about him.

Really that deal is 4/$44 with a two year player option. I think it's possible that they liked him, but not that much. He's not riskless, not at all. Some foreign players come here and fall on their faces, or are mediocre. They're not all Jose Abreu.

So reading the tea leaves, I think we trade for young controllable vets, like a good midmarket team should. I think we'll get a good deal for Justin, but I don't think it will be quick and it won't be for prospects.

I don't think our payroll will ever be top three as it was under Ted, but I expect we'll stay top third. We'll have to do it with scouting, signing, drafting and development. StL is a model franchise, but they bade Pujols goodbye when he wanted $250m. We'll be much the same.

As much as we bitch, it's a well-run organization. They recognized we were getting away from what made us great, and they adjusted. Let's all take a deep breath and see how the offseason unfolds.
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The only problem is we're not top 1/3rd in payroll, we're actually right in the middle, in the lower half.
 
On second thought, we should spend money like drunken sailors, just to give people something to talk about on message boards and Twitter before the Winter Meetings actually start.
 
NYCBrave said:
The only problem is we're not top 1/3rd in payroll, we're actually right in the middle, in the lower half.
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We were 12th in baseball last year. I don't think we'll be top 3rd though. Not with the 2 LA teams, 2 NY teams, Philly, Washington, San Fran, Detroit, Texas, Cards, and Cubs in the league.
 
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