Did We Give Up on Juan Francisco Too Soon?

Zito...

Both Johnson and Freeman are top 5 in LD% this season.

Everyone in the top five except for Chris Davis has a BABIP of .365 or higher. If you hit a lot of line drives, you will carry a higher BABIP and AVG. That is what is happening with Johnson (and Freeman).
 
CJC said:
Zito...

Both Johnson and Freeman are top 5 in LD% this season.

Everyone in the top five except for Chris Davis has a BABIP of .365 or higher. If you hit a lot of line drives, you will carry a higher BABIP and AVG. That is what is happening with Johnson (and Freeman).
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I've never said that Johnson shouldn't have a BABIP that's high. He just shouldn't have a BABIP as high as he does now. If you read back on the last page or the page before I believe I said that a BABIP around Freeman's level is more expected.

Again no one who is really into stats acknowledges Johnson has the skill fo ra high BABIP, jsut not way higher than anyone since WWII.
 
zitothebrave said:
And Johnson absolutely has been lucky. You dont' hit as many dying quails and seeing-eye grounders as he does on skill.
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See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.
 
CJC said:
See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.
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I'm not gonna discuss these points since you don't seem to be reading back, I'll just post some things I said before

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

I'd like to add to his, according to bref, the current NL average for GB, LD and FB are .234/.669/.181 Johnson's stats in those same splits .287/.827/.273

Every single ball johnson is making contact with he's getting to drop in at a higher than average rate. The skepticism over Johnson has nothing to do with his abilities, I think most who are skeptical of him acknowledge they expect him to be a high BABIP guy because he hits a ton of LDs. But you don't hit that high. Johnson's hitting .208 on fly balls that aren't homers, the league average is .097. If that doesn't scream that he's getting lucky than what can. You cannot be telling me that Johnson walks up to the plate and says "I'm gonna hit a dying quail just beyond the reach of the 2B and RF" cause if he has that ability he's not a baseball player. He's a witch and he should be burned.
 
First: I'm not arguing that Johnson is in the class of Clemente, Roided Manny, or Carew for a career. So lets dispense with that bit of hyperbole, shall me? I also did not argue that Johnson is going to be a .400+ BABIP guy for the rest of his career. He is capable of hitting .300 for a sustained period, which is what I will argue.

Johnson had a .387 BABIP in almost 100 games in 2010. His line drive rate has increase in the last two season, as has his number of plate appearances. Given he experience level, it is POSSIBLE that he is CAPABLE of hitting .300 for several season during his PEAK (which he is probably in now).

To aid. His K% is at a career low, he's never been under 24% on a season, this year he's at 20.9% That's a significant movement. I propose that point to a change is his approach.
 
CJC said:
First: I'm not arguing that Johnson is in the class of Clemente, Roided Manny, or Carew for a career. So lets dispense with that bit of hyperbole, shall me? I also did not argue that Johnson is going to be a .400+ BABIP guy for the rest of his career. He is capable of hitting .300 for a sustained period, which is what I will argue.

Johnson had a .387 BABIP in almost 100 games in 2010. His line drive rate has increase in the last two season, as has his number of plate appearances. Given he experience level, it is POSSIBLE that he is CAPABLE of hitting .300 for several season during his PEAK (which he is probably in now).

To aid. His K% is at a career low, he's never been under 24% on a season, this year he's at 20.9% That's a significant movement. I propose that point to a change is his approach.
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You're ignoring a whole collection of points.

As far as sustaining .300.

Let's put a totally optimistic approach on a 600 PA season for Johnson

We're gonna take his career average BABIP since some years he'll be up some he'll be down, I'll even give the benefit of the doubt because this is an up year

So taking his career high in BB% of 5.9% and career low in K% of 20.9% we can say he has 35 walks and 125Ks we'll also take his career best HR/PA giving him 18 homers. Also sprinkle in his 5 HBP per 600 PA and 5 sacrifices. so that mean that he puts into play 417 balls that can be fielded. Apply his BABIP we get 152 hits. So he has a total of 170 hits in 555 AB or a .306 average.

That's being totally optimistic of course. Not going off of his current HR rate which is about 15 per 600 which would knock off 2 hits lowering his average still, or going off his career K rate since maybe he made a change, or maybe he's just having a good year in his K rate. We don't really know.

My point is that being totally optimistic with Johnson we see he's barely a .300 hitter. If you're slightly pessimistic and take an objective approach you'd say he's a .280-.300 hitter normally. Some years below that some years above ti but his average will fall into that range. Probably right around .290.
 
CJC said:
See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.
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You're confusing the statheads with stats that don't conform to their long-held beliefs. The cognitive dissonance is palpable.

And richly ironic. Thank you. I knew this was true. Should have figured somebody was measuring it.

So they're saying he won't likely hit .340 again and using a BABIP analysis, using the same Rod Carew data points in case we didn't hear them the first forty-six times, to back it up again.

I could have looked at his batting average and figured that out without BABIP.

Then he does the same long analysis looking backward and assuming CJ hasn't had any growth or improvement to predict he'll hit .290-300. Brilliant.

My analysis, derived from 40 years of watching, playing, and coaching the game, goes something like "he's been up four years, had a .300 year, will hit .330 this year, is spraying line drives all over the park, and he's hitting the ball hard, gap to gap. Beautiful swing, flat through the zone, gives him a long time to square up pitches. Very consistent. The guy's for real. I could see him hitting .310 over the next five years."

And because my opinion uses no advanced metrics, it is ridiculed by Zito and Giles. But guess what, guys? It's as valid as yours. Maybe more, because I'm able to project trends and improvement, rather than being chained to your rigid statistical methodology.

Trust me, I am more than capable of getting as deep into the numbers as I care to. I just don't. Doesn't make me a Luddite or someone incapable of understanding your metrics (I do). I just don't think a pure statistical analysis gives you the whole picture.

Stats should augment your understanding of the game, not be your understanding. It's played by humans, and you cannot always quantify their skills, behavior, aptitude nor the changes thereof. Some will defy logic. I think this guy is going to be better going forward than you do. Doesn't make either one of us right or wrong, but stop pounding the same arguments. We got it.
 
ChapelHillMatt said:
I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.
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Why can't you enjoy a player if you believe he is lucky?

Just some examples:

Dexter Fowler hit .300 last year due to his league leading .390 BABIP. His BABIP has dropped to .320 this year. (.267 BA)

Buster Posey BABIP last 3 years: .326, .368, .316
Montero .317, .362, .272
Bonafacio .372, .325, .280
Avila .366, .313, .255

And the list goes on and on and on. Players have seasons where the balls just drop. Chris Johnson the last 3 years: .317, .354, .410. People don't realize the small difference there is in hitting .280 and hitting .300. Johnson is hitting .335 this year. Take away just 1 bloop hit per week and he's hitting .280. This is the reason batting average is so volatile and in short samples is a terrible gauge. It's not difficult to appreciate a players performance while realizing that he's been pretty lucky for the year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-johnson-and-great-players/

The issue with Johnson is that he's really a 1 skill type of player. He's skill (which is he good at) is hitting line drives. Defense, power, speed, patience, contact rate are all below average. So if he has a season with a BABIP in the low .300s, it's going to be an awful season. And to be clear, hitting line drives doesn't neccessarily mean you will always have a high batting average. See the top 15 for 2013:

# Name Team BABIP LD% BA
1 James Loney Rays 0.337 29.30% 0.310
2 Joey Votto Reds 0.375 28.20% 0.316
3 Freddie Freeman Braves 0.366 27.70% 0.309
4 Chris Johnson Braves 0.41 27.50% 0.335
5 Joe Mauer Twins 0.381 27.30% 0.322
6 Matt Carpenter Cardinals 0.347 26.80% 0.312
7 Howie Kendrick Angels 0.344 26.80% 0.301
8 Allen Craig Cardinals 0.361 26.40% 0.310
9 Austin Jackson Tigers 0.32 26.20% 0 261
10 Jhonny Peralta Tigers 0.379 25.90% 0.305
11 Jason Castro Astros 0.341 25.90% 0.267
12 Paul Konerko White Sox 0.26 25.90% 0.240
13 Gregor Blanco Giants 0.312 25.70% 0.254
14 Jay Bruce Reds 0.334 25.70% 0.270
15 Nate McLouth Orioles 0.306 25.50% 0.272
Average 0.345 26.7% 0.292

As a little exercise:

Take away 5 hits from Johnson, here are his numbers: .322/.360/.460
10- .309/.348/.447
15- .296/.336/.434
20- .283/.324/.421
 
CJC said:
See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.
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Johnson has had tons of bloop singles. Don't of balls pulled into the hole. Do you realize, he's on made 2 outs to LF this season? That is unheard of. He had at the very least 2 bloop singles over the weekend.

I don't understand your support of him hitting the ball harder. He hit a homer with a speed of 114.5....that means he's hitting the ball harder this year? His average speed off the bat is virtually identical the past 3 years.
 
Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.
 
Temo said:
Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.
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That looks about right.
 
Temo said:
Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.
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To quote Seinfeld, "Not that there's anything wrong with that", especially if his defense continues to be OK, which it is. Also, especially at his cost for the next 3 years.
 
A 290 hitter is a hitter I'd be fine with in this lineup, 290 is very good. Regardless of what you think about what he's going to do going forward, the bottom line is this year he's hitting 330 and is a big reason why we are running away with the division. Give the guy credit for having a tremendous year, it isn't hard.
 
His defense has not been ok though. He's at -5 runs despite playing with the best defensive SS in the league.
 
Can't wait for May next year for people to start posting: "What can we get for Chris Johnson"
 
ChapelHillMatt said:
A 290 hitter is a hitter I'd be fine with in this lineup, 290 is very good. Regardless of what you think about what he's going to do going forward, the bottom line is this year he's hitting 330 and is a big reason why we are running away with the division. Give the guy credit for having a tremendous year, it isn't hard.
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Agreed, 100%. He's havign a great year, and he's an above-average hitter. With Simmons playing next to him, defense is a little less important for him. Good to have him on the team.
 
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