Did We Give Up on Juan Francisco Too Soon?

gilesfan said:
It's not just metrics. Metrics show what people around baseball see. His range is almost non existent.
Click to expand...

I understand he's no Brooks Robinson. But he's defense has been OK, even by the stat measurement, and more importantly, even by the stat measurement, has steadily improved over the season, probably due to him playing day in and day out for the first time in his career.

And by my eyeball test, having watched probably watched 80% of all the games this season, he's been OK.
 
Having only watched 20% of the games this year, I have to say that he looks like a statue to me, but when he gets his hands on a ball he doesn't frequently eff it up.
 
gilesfan said:
Johnson has had tons of bloop singles. Don't of balls pulled into the hole. Do you realize, he's on made 2 outs to LF this season? That is unheard of. He had at the very least 2 bloop singles over the weekend.

I don't understand your support of him hitting the ball harder. He hit a homer with a speed of 114.5....that means he's hitting the ball harder this year? His average speed off the bat is virtually identical the past 3 years.
Click to expand...

He also has dramatically reduced his K-Rate and improved his LD%. He carried a high BABIP in 2010 as well. Also, can you link me to the Batted Ball speed? I looked all over for it and only found the HR numbers.

I think there is a happy middle ground here because 1. I'm not saying Johnson is a peak .330 hitter, I do think there is some luck in his AVG this year. 2. I think Johnson can be a .300 hitter for 2-3 more years, depending on when he loses bat speed. When he loses it, it's pretty much over for him. For that window he is likely to hit in the .290 to .310 range.
 
CJC said:
He also has dramatically reduced his K-Rate and improved his LD%. He carried a high BABIP in 2010 as well. Also, can you link me to the Batted Ball speed? I looked all over for it and only found the HR numbers.

I think there is a happy middle ground here because 1. I'm not saying Johnson is a peak .330 hitter, I do think there is some luck in his AVG this year. 2. I think Johnson can be a .300 hitter for 2-3 more years, depending on when he loses bat speed. When he loses it, it's pretty much over for him. For that window he is likely to hit in the .290 to .310 range.
Click to expand...

Yes, he dropped his K-rate and increased line drive rate. There are many players with outlying line drive ratios for a year or 2. The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.

Johnson is also hitting more groundballs than he has in the pst. And somehow hitting .277 on them when league average is around .240. But, that's not even the big one. Johnson has decreased his flyball rate, but is somehow hitting .269 on flyballs.

The problem with Johnson is that even if he becomes a .300 hitter, he may only be a 1-2 WAR player bc of his lack of other skills. If he hits lower, he's terrible.
 
gilesfan said:
Yes, he dropped his K-rate and increased line drive rate. There are many players with outlying line drive ratios for a year or 2. The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.

Johnson is also hitting more groundballs than he has in the pst. And somehow hitting .277 on them when league average is around .240. But, that's not even the big one. Johnson has decreased his flyball rate, but is somehow hitting .269 on flyballs.

The problem with Johnson is that even if he becomes a .300 hitter, he may only be a 1-2 WAR player bc of his lack of other skills. If he hits lower, he's terrible.
Click to expand...

It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.
Click to expand...

Just don't cry if CJ hits .285 next year.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.
Click to expand...

Useful stuff here.
 
gilesfan said:
The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.
Click to expand...

Sorry to ask you to chase a goose, but I really don't see anything other that HR SOB. I'd really like to see Johnson's Batted Ball speed over the last 4 years to see if he's hitting the ball harder.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Yeah, not a problem. Same to you if he hits .300 again, confounding the Babiposters once again.
Click to expand...

Ok, guys... the difference between .285 and .300 over 550 AB is about 8 hits. Negligible difference. It's like none of you have seen Bull Durham.

Personally, I think predicting anything from .270-.310 for the dude is reasonable.
 
Temo said:
Ok, guys... the difference between .285 and .300 over 550 AB is about 8 hits. Negligible difference. It's like none of you have seen Bull Durham.

Personally, I think predicting anything from .270-.310 for the dude is reasonable.
Click to expand...

That was my point earlier about the small difference.

Even if he hits .300, he may be a sub 2 WAR player.
 
I have no problem with his defense, it looks like he makes most of the plays hit his way to me. Is he a gold glover? Does he have great range? No but he's not terrible with the glove.
 
People always say he is not terrible, and I once again ask to what standards?

I judge players against league standards, and by judging him against other 3rd basemen, he is a bad defensive player.

ChapelHillMatt, who do you think is worse than CJ defensively at third base in MLB?
 
He could be the worst 3rd baseman in the league and still not be that bad. Nobody is saying he should win an award, only that he's not as bad as people make him out to be. You'd think he missed every ball hit his way the way people talk about him on this board. I've seen bad defensive play before. I watched Brooks Conrad at 2nd, Ken Caminiti try and play 1st, and Mike Piazza try and catch. I simply don't believe Johnson is a liability, he doesn't help you or hurt you defensively. I really don't care what his defensive metrics are. I watch him play every night. I form my own opinions based on what I see on a daily basis. If my argument was he's the best defensive player in the league at his position then I would need to compare him to others but since that's not my argument, I don't.
 
ChapelHillMatt said:
I simply don't believe Johnson is a liability, he doesn't help you or hurt you defensively.
Click to expand...

But his defense does hurt the team a little; the primary reason it isn't "a lot", or a real liability, is the extraordinary defensive awesomeness of Andrelton Simmons.

On the other hand: luckily Simmons should be with the Braves for several more seasons, at the very least, so the Braves can likely afford to carry Johnson's glove (so long as he keeps hitting).
 
jpx7 said:
But his defense does hurt the team a little; the primary reason it isn't "a lot", or a real liability, is the extraordinary defensive awesomeness of Andrelton Simmons.

On the other hand: luckily Simmons should be with the Braves for several more seasons, at the very least, so the Braves can likely afford to carry Johnson's glove (so long as he keeps hitting).
Click to expand...

Well said!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top