There it is!
I suppose we will continue to monitor the Braves payroll and see who's right.
Please stick around and don't vanish at the end of March!
Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans
- Thread starter Horsehide Harry
- Start date
There it is!
I suppose we will continue to monitor the Braves payroll and see who's right.
Please stick around and don't vanish at the end of March!
We aren't adding a SP or a significant RP. The only logical place to make an addition right now is 3B or a corner spot if your moving Neck.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
With this being an apparent punt season, I hope Peterson rebounds enough to get a real audition in Atlanta before the end of the year. It's easy to forget he was Org Player of the Year in 16, and it would be nice to find out if we actually need to fill LF with a free agent next year. And I really don't need to watch more of Lane Adams or Nick Markakis.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think even the most homer of homers can now see that the whole "reload not rebuild" bullsh*t strategy by former management has been close to a complete disaster.
1. They didn't want to have embarrassing records. Did anyway, just not quite bad enough to get the full benefit from being bad.
2. They wanted to create some excitement going into the new park to pull in huge crowds now that they are in the heartland of the paying fans. Didn't happen. They forgot that fans don't come in droves to see bad baseball.
3. They wanted to clear bad contracts so they would have money to spend once they were in the new park and were at the end of the "reload." Didn't work out. They paired good assets with bad contracts then brought in more long term bad contracts to try and get out of the mistakes that they made - like quicksand they thrashed around and sank deeper, faster.
4. They held onto valuable assets only to watch some lose value significantly and some altogether. The one bright spot, keeping Freeman, is tarnished by the fact that the team isn't really anywhere near being able to make that decision pay off in playoff wins.
5. They thought they were smarter than everyone else and wouldn't need to tank because they could manipulate the draft and International FA signings to their favor. "Hello, welcome to Taco Bell. I'm Coppy, can I take your order."
6. Now, the FA market has taken a somewhat unexpected turn where there's a lot of value to be had at deflated prices....and, they have no money.
Houston showed the way. Find me a Houston fan today who still thinks the "tanking" years were not worth the team they have built. I'll wait.
And the sad thing is, the tanking strategy is probably not long for the world because the MLB players association is likely to blame that as much as the luxury tax for the deflated FA prices and years being seen this offseason.
1. They didn't want to have embarrassing records. Did anyway, just not quite bad enough to get the full benefit from being bad.
2. They wanted to create some excitement going into the new park to pull in huge crowds now that they are in the heartland of the paying fans. Didn't happen. They forgot that fans don't come in droves to see bad baseball.
3. They wanted to clear bad contracts so they would have money to spend once they were in the new park and were at the end of the "reload." Didn't work out. They paired good assets with bad contracts then brought in more long term bad contracts to try and get out of the mistakes that they made - like quicksand they thrashed around and sank deeper, faster.
4. They held onto valuable assets only to watch some lose value significantly and some altogether. The one bright spot, keeping Freeman, is tarnished by the fact that the team isn't really anywhere near being able to make that decision pay off in playoff wins.
5. They thought they were smarter than everyone else and wouldn't need to tank because they could manipulate the draft and International FA signings to their favor. "Hello, welcome to Taco Bell. I'm Coppy, can I take your order."
6. Now, the FA market has taken a somewhat unexpected turn where there's a lot of value to be had at deflated prices....and, they have no money.
Houston showed the way. Find me a Houston fan today who still thinks the "tanking" years were not worth the team they have built. I'll wait.
And the sad thing is, the tanking strategy is probably not long for the world because the MLB players association is likely to blame that as much as the luxury tax for the deflated FA prices and years being seen this offseason.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't think it has been a complete disaster but it could have been a lot better. And some of the things that save it from being a disaster were not really a product of the rebuild (Albies and Acuna) or were the product of us being in the lucky position of trading with an incompetent GM (Stewart).
chop2chip
Well-known member
This is...
*winces in pain from the memory of the era of groundball outs are fun - 2015 Braves baseball*
Undeniable.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There was one other pick after Senzel was taken that I had a lot of interest in, AJ Puk. College pitcher with a high ceiling. The A's picked three college pitchers that year in similar draft positions as the 3 HS pitchers we took. It will interesting to see how that goes.
the astros had 6 losing seasons, from 09-14. the braves have had 4, but 3 tanking (the first one was supposed to be a good year).
since the 2010 season these have been the astros 1st rounders:
DeShields
Folty
Michael Kvasnicka (??)
Springer
Correa
Appel
Aiken
Bregman
Tucker
Daz Cameron
3 times they had the number 1 pick, and 2 of them were epic fails: Appel and Aiken. We've drafted better pitchers all over the place. The other was Correa, who IIRC was seen as a signability pick (that could be wrong).
Altuve was signed in 2007, so he doesn't count in their rebuild effort stage.
Since we love to bring it up, I'll go ahead and say they were lucky that same incompetent GM, Dave Stewart, picked Swanson ahead of Bregman, allowing Houston to get the better player. They prob take Swanson if he isn't #1.
McCullers is the only major SP that was drafted during their rebuild.
After 6 years of losing, they won 86 and then 84 games before winning the WS this year.
The Braves have had 3 years of losing and currently have the best farm in baseball, and are on the brink of 80+ games, possibly as soon as this season. Only Acuna wasn't acquired during the rebuild as far as prospects go.
We haven't even seen the full results of the rebuild. Not even close. the astros blew plenty of 1st round picks and went thru more losing than we are likely to. i'm not sure what they've done that's so incredible.
since the 2010 season these have been the astros 1st rounders:
DeShields
Folty
Michael Kvasnicka (??)
Springer
Correa
Appel
Aiken
Bregman
Tucker
Daz Cameron
3 times they had the number 1 pick, and 2 of them were epic fails: Appel and Aiken. We've drafted better pitchers all over the place. The other was Correa, who IIRC was seen as a signability pick (that could be wrong).
Altuve was signed in 2007, so he doesn't count in their rebuild effort stage.
Since we love to bring it up, I'll go ahead and say they were lucky that same incompetent GM, Dave Stewart, picked Swanson ahead of Bregman, allowing Houston to get the better player. They prob take Swanson if he isn't #1.
McCullers is the only major SP that was drafted during their rebuild.
After 6 years of losing, they won 86 and then 84 games before winning the WS this year.
The Braves have had 3 years of losing and currently have the best farm in baseball, and are on the brink of 80+ games, possibly as soon as this season. Only Acuna wasn't acquired during the rebuild as far as prospects go.
We haven't even seen the full results of the rebuild. Not even close. the astros blew plenty of 1st round picks and went thru more losing than we are likely to. i'm not sure what they've done that's so incredible.
While I agree with 95% of what you wrote, I think it's a little silly to call the rebuild "close to a complete disaster". Sure, they could be in an even better position than they are now, but they are still in a pretty damn good position.
Going point by point...
1. Agreed. This cost them Senzel (a HUGE loss), and may have cost them someone similar in this draft. Wright was likely the best pick no matter what, and I am stoked the Braves got him.
2. Agreed. The "Magical 2017 Season" was the root cause for all bad moves made the last 3 years.
3. The only truly bad contract was Kemp, and acquiring him was indefensible. Markakis is being paid like a 1 win bench player, so he isn't a problem.
4. Mostly agreed. Keeping Teheran was stupid at the time (as many of us stated back then), which is blatantly obvious in hindsight. Keeping Freeman...defensible.
5. Agreed. The best thing to happen this off season was to clean out the "Braves Way" thinking and get modern 21st century management in place.
6. Agreed. The newest market inefficiency appears to be spending money on FAs, as odd as that is to write. It would have been great if the Braves were in position to take advantage of this rare set of circumstances (namely, the traditional big spenders taking a break from spending).
And you're right about tanking in general as well. The next CBA will almost certainly have provisions to discourage it, so the Braves are likely one of the last teams who could have utilized that strategy, and they failed to do so efficiently.
- Trading Teheran would have seen the Braves with 1-2 more Top 100 guys, with a very good chance one of them is a Top 50 guy.
- A complete tank job would have meant Senzel in place of Anderson, which would have been pretty amazing.
- Not making the HO mistake would have prevented the Kemp mistake (hopefully), and would have allowed the Braves to get something else for Peraza and Wood.
- Not compounding the HO mistake with the Kemp mistake would have seen the Braves with enough cash on hand to add a significant contract this offseason.
Would that have created a playoff team this year? Maybe.
Would that have made the 2019 and later teams even more likely to contend? Absolutely, positively, without a doubt.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
My thoughts exactly. I agree with you totally in this post, but I bolded the last line as I am hoping AA sees the same in time to do as you suggest.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Well, you're forgetting the bad contract/trade that lead to the bad contract/trade of the Kemp trade. That was Wood, Peraza, and unloading Bronson Arroyo (who we only got to take his salary on to get Touki) and other low value pieces for Olivera. If we don't make that trade and instead package Wood and Teheran to a pitching starved team for a **** ton of prospects or maybe even a young stud under control, we'd be in an entirely different boat. That one trade singlehandedly derailed the rebuild.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I'd argue this trade and the trade of Simmons did so.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
"Today's MLBTR live chat:
Justin
4:39 Domingo Santana for Mike Foltynewicz, who says no?
Jason Martinez
4:42 If the Braves had a bigger need in the OF, I think they could make something work. Brewers would probably have to add to the pot with maybe a mid-level prospect. But the Braves probably feel good enough with Markakis, Inciarte and Acuna that they won't sacrifice any of their pitching depth."
If this is true the Braves should make this trade right now! If not, once Folty is shown to be bullpen bound and likely nothing special there. Then you certainly won't find a team still dreaming for more from him. At least not enough to trade much for him.
Justin
4:39 Domingo Santana for Mike Foltynewicz, who says no?
Jason Martinez
4:42 If the Braves had a bigger need in the OF, I think they could make something work. Brewers would probably have to add to the pot with maybe a mid-level prospect. But the Braves probably feel good enough with Markakis, Inciarte and Acuna that they won't sacrifice any of their pitching depth."
If this is true the Braves should make this trade right now! If not, once Folty is shown to be bullpen bound and likely nothing special there. Then you certainly won't find a team still dreaming for more from him. At least not enough to trade much for him.
This sentiment will change quickly this season. Not in that Simmons won't be good but Newcomb will be providing his prime performance during our resurgent years.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Probably. But at least the Simmons trade makes sense from a rebuilding standpoint. When you rebuild you trade off assets who are more valuable to other teams. Simmons has 3 more years on his contract at a great rate. Are the odds of us being great in that stretch worth it? Or is it worth it to try and divest.
The issue with that trade though is the same as the rebuild trades made Wren took over but JS was still pulling the strings. The need to get back a MLB shortstop hurt our return. If we could have gone to LA and gotten Newcomb and **** Tyler Skaggs that would have been a net gain over Aybar. Though reality is similar to the ****ty trade the last time we dumped someone to the Angels, I think the shoehorn of wanting a MLB player back hurt our market of teams he could have gone to. Most teams in the market for a Shortstop aren't looking for a defensive first improvement.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
One certainly has to hope for that. Cause if we go through that whole rebuild trades and none of the guys we got are an ace, that will suck really really hard. Wisler doesn't look like much. Folty looks like Jose Capellan. Jenkins was shipped off for a reliever, I'm hoping for the best for Dustin Peterson, but I don't think he'll amount to much if anything, Mallex Smith did get us Gohara who next to Newcomb is probably our best bet for an ace from the group, Fried I'm holding out hope for, but I don't have a ton of faith in his health and think he'll at best be a Tommy Hanson type, Rio Ruiz's power left him when he hit the upper minors, and the fringe guys we got were fine.
Basically everything we have to show from those trades hinges on Gohara, Newcomb and Fried. Wisler being an outside chance but it doubt it much, Folty maybe learns a plus second pitch but I wouldn't bank on it. It just kind of makes me numb. I was concerned with all the trades because the Braves buying all these kids with arm issues on the logic seemingly that if they already had Tommy John they won't need it again, with zero evidence to back that up.
Considering he’s one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball, it certainly could!